Visiting Posey: Previewing Boston vs. New Orleans

Posted by Zach Lowe on Feb 11, 2009 2130 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F02%2F11%2Fvisiting-posey-previewing-boston-vs-new-orleans%2FVisiting+Posey%3A+Previewing+Boston+vs.+New+Orleans2009-02-11+18%3A21%3A12Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D213

Celtics 42-11

Offensive efficiency (110.8, 6th in NBA); Defensive efficiency (100.7, 1st)

Hornets 30-19

Offensive efficiency (109.3, 10th); Defensive efficiency (106.5, 11th)

The Celtics kick off a string of six straight road games tonight against a New Orleans team that may be missing the world’s best point guard. As of now, that’s still uncertain; Paul says he feels better, and Bryon Scott says he’ll make a game-time decision. My money would be on the Hornets letting Paul rest through the All-Star break, which would give David Stern an excuse to put Steve Nash on the All-Star team at the last minute. Hornets247 disagrees, and guesses Paul will play, and they know that team back and forth. I guess we’ll all find out together.

The C’s follow this game with a visit to Dallas, which is missing its second reliable scoring option (Jason Terry), so hopefully this is a recipe for a 2-0 mini-streak before the All-Star break and four more roadies. The C’s will be missing Tony Allen, who injured his left thumb, but Tony’s not exactly as important to the C’s as Paul or Terry are to the Hornets and Mavs. Ahem.

Really, whether Paul plays or not is the only thing that matters in previewing this game. If he does, the Celtics should still win, though it might be a tough game. If he doesn’t, I’ll be disappointed if the Big 3 are playing late in the fourth quarter.

The Celtics won the first match-up at home on Dec. 12, 94-82, for win No. 14 of the 19-game winning streak that ended on Christmas. The C’s held New Orleans to 35 percent shooting, including 2-of-14 from three.

That last stat is key. The Hornets take a lot of threes with Paul; without him, they are bombing away from deep at an alarming rate. In their four games without CP3, they’ve taken 16, 32, 27 and 23 threes. When they make enough of them, they win.

When they don’t, they lose. (They’re 2-2 in those four games). This plays right into the Celtics hands. The Celtics have allowed the fifth-lowest opponents three-point field goal percentage in the league, and there isn’t a team that closes out on shooters better than Boston.

The most interesting subplot is probably the KG-David West match-up. West scored 37 to lead New Orleans to a 113-106 win in the teams’ first meeting last season, a performance Garnett admitted he took “personally.”

In the rematch six days later, KG did some crazy KG stuff, getting down on his knees and pounding the floor at one point when West had the ball on the perimeter. (West drove by him for a basket). Still, KG held West to 14 points on 13 shots, and the C’s ran away for a 112-92 victory. Afterward, Rajon Rondo told reporters KG had labeled the game a “statement game.”

The C’s might be tempted to label this one a statement game, too, since the doubters are coming out after home losses to the Lakers and Spurs. But this shouldn’t be a statement game.

The Hornets aren’t good enough without Paul to merit “statement game” status. This should just be a win. Throw in another one tomorrow in Dallas, and the C’s will be 44-11 at the All-Star break. Know what their record was after 55 games last season? 43-12. As Matt at Basketbawful would say, I’m just sayin’.