So we should have signed Mutombo?

Posted by Zach Lowe on Mar 2, 2009 6252 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F03%2F02%2Fso-we-should-have-signed-mutombo%2FSo+we+should+have+signed+Mutombo%3F+2009-03-03+02%3A27%3A28Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D625

 

Some good stuff from around the Interwebs on Monday:

• Both Celtics Blog and Red’s Army have polls up right now asking the same question: Did Danny Ainge blow it by signing Mikki Moore last week instead of waiting to see if Drew Gooden and Joe Smith became available? And, weirdly, the results are identical: 52 percent say Ainge blew it by pulling the trigger early. I have two reactions to this. My gut reaction is that I’m surprised the polls are this close because of course Ainge blew it. Moore’s not as good as either of these guys (at anything), and it’s not clear he adds anything that Leon Powe and Glen Davis aren’t already providing. 

But then the reporter in me says we just don’t know the whole story. Smith has flip-flopped on this several times. Did he want to go to Cleveland the entire time? Did he really want to stay in Oklahoma City before changing his mind? Or, as David Aldridge now reports, did he want to go to the Celtics? 

It’s tough to sift through the public record, and impossible to know what Ainge knew and when he knew it. Throw in the fact that Gooden has missed all but a couple of games since mid-January with a groin injury, and you can understand Danny not feeling confident about signing either guy. 

But I keep coming back to this: Mikki Moore is no longer even an average NBA big man. The Celtics don’t need him, and they never did.

Some commenters have scoffed at the whole Smith or Moore debate, basically arguing that these guys aren’t going to decide the championship. They’re probably right. Let’s just move on. 

• Here’s a nice Q-and-A in the New York Times with Sports Illustrated and CBS college hoops guru Seth Davis, who’s got a book coming out about the 1979 NCAA title game between Indiana State and Michigan State. Neither Larry or Magic talked to Davis, but some of the Legend’s friends told him Larry has never really gotten over that loss. 

Without revealing anything, the interviewer (tease!) remarks that the book’s closing scene shows the depth of Larry’s regret. Here’s Seth best guess as to why the game meant so much to the Legend:

I also think Larry’s regret stems largely from his affection for the community of Terre Haute. He knew how much this game meant to them, and he still feels like he let them down.

Larry is awesome. 

• BlazersEdge has a nice friendship with Kevin Pelton, one of the guys behind Basketball Prospectus, and lucky for us all, the Edge is not afraid to abuse that friendship. (H/T: TrueHoop) The blog asked Pelton to see if there is any correlation between a team’s average age and its defensive play. Pelton, seeking only the adulation of the blogosphere and the pursuit of Truth, ran a study that found older teams tend to have better defensive ratings. The correlation isn’t perfect, but it’s better than Pelton guessed it would be. 

BlazersEdge and Henry at TH toss around all kinds of reasons this might be. Older players might be smarter, or hungrier to win, or referees may give them a bit more latitude for physical play on defense. Either way, it’s a fascinating study with lots of interesting nuggets buried within the larger conclusion (example: The Bulls of 2004-06 played much better defense than one would have expected).

Findings like this reinforce something we all love about basketball: Easily measurable statistics can’t tell you everything about the game. There are players who contribute more than they seem to because they make subtle, smart decisions, or because they outwork everyone else. (As I write this, Reggie Evans has just keyed a double-digit swing in the Sixers-Hornets game without scoring a point–something he seems to do every game against Boston). It explains how the Celtics needed to trade four other players and two draft picks along with one near 20-10 guy (Big Al) to get a single 20-10 guy (KG).