To rest or not to rest: Celtics@Heat preview

Posted by Zach Lowe on Mar 11, 2009 7691 commenthttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F03%2F11%2Fto-rest-or-not-to-rest-celticsheat-preview%2FTo+rest+or+not+to+rest%3A+Celtics%40Heat+preview2009-03-11+19%3A27%3A27Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D769

The C’s have 18 regular season games left, and three of them are against Miami. So if the Celtics really want to bust it for home court advantage–as my Celtics Hub colleague Brian Robb and the Boston Herald’s Gerry Callahan think they should–beating Miami is pretty much a must.

So, um, who guards Dwyane Wade? Wade is averaging 36 points and 10 assists in his last 10 games, and he’s coming of a game in which he did this: 48 points, 15-of-21 shooting (!), 12 dimes, six boards, four steals, three blocks, five turnovers. Just utter brilliance. His PER is at 30.5, and he’s as viable an MVP candidate as LeBron or Kobe in this neck of the woods.

It will be fascinating to see how the Celtics handle Wade. They don’t have anybody who can guard him. Will they give him the long jumper? He’s shooting those better than ever, though the 31.6 percent success rate from three isn’t so daunting. Will they try and funnel him into a crowd as they did with LeBron on Friday? That seems more likely. Either way, this makes for a long night for Ray Allen and whoever else is unlucky enough to spend some time guarding Wade.

The problems stop after Wade, which is something you can’t say about Cleveland. Miami is mediocre on offense (19th in offensive efficiency) and defense (13th), and only the Kings and Nets have allowed opponents to shoot better from three-point range. Despite all the ESPN love, the team is just 6-5 in its last 11 games, and its big trade prize, Jermaine O’Neal, is actually putting up worse numbers than he did while looking decrepit in Toronto.

The three-point shot was the key for Boston in their first (and only) game against Miami this season, a 98-83 road win in which Eddie House scored 20 points in the second quarter on his way to 25 and 7-for-11 shooting from deep. (Ray hit 5-of-6 from long range, and the C’s shot 15-of-25 from three as a team). They managed to hold Wade to a measly 25 points.

As for the C’s, we all know the injury situation. No Rondo, no KG, no Tony Allen, no Scalabrine and no Big Baby. Doc is once again vowing to make sure Pierce and Ray Allen don’t play 45 minutes as they did on Sunday. Of course, we’ve heard this before–right after Pierce played all but 18 seconds against Detroit the previous Sunday.

The thing is, resting Pierce and Allen now means playing Bill Walker and Gabe Pruitt. There is no way around it with the roster as depleted as it is. Doc is clearly uncomfortable playing these guys for any extended run, especially Walker, so if this game is close–and it should be, Miami is 22-11 at home with loads to play for–we’re going to see just how committed Doc really is to the Late Season Rest Doctrine.

Jump for some other nuggets.

Both Eddie House and Stephon Marbury should get plenty of time tonight, though it will still be interesting to see who gets the starting nod after Doc admitted second-guessing his decision to start Marbury–who’s still on training wheels–on Sunday against the Magic. (UPDATE: It’s Marbury.) One of these guys is going to have to hit double figures in scoring for the C’s to win this game.

It would also help to win the rebounding battle. Miami is a bad rebounding team (19th in defensive rebounding rate, 24th on the offensive glass), and the Celtics, even without KG and Big Baby, should be able to control the boards and scrap their way to some easy garbage put-backs.

Two other things of note:

• This is a possible first-round playoff preview (I know, I know). The Heat are in fifth in the Eastern Conference right now, but they are only one game ahead of Detroit in the loss column and two ahead of Philly (not to mention just one behind Atlanta).

• The Heat are fourth-best in the league in forcing turnovers. Uh oh.