Comments on: The Celtics clutch offense: The Big Three http://celticshub.com/2009/03/12/the-celtics-clutch-offense-the-big-three/ Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:14:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Celtics Clutch Offense: Non-Big Three, and the Importance of Tony and Leon | Celtics Hub http://celticshub.com/2009/03/12/the-celtics-clutch-offense-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-700 Celtics Clutch Offense: Non-Big Three, and the Importance of Tony and Leon | Celtics Hub Wed, 01 Apr 2009 13:49:16 +0000 http://celticshub.com/?p=766#comment-700 [...] couple of weeks ago, we looked at the Celtics offense in the 30 games (at that point in the season–after Game 64) i.... Though the stats aren’t perfect, they confirmed some things we knew about the C’s [...] [...] couple of weeks ago, we looked at the Celtics offense in the 30 games (at that point in the season–after Game 64) i…. Though the stats aren’t perfect, they confirmed some things we knew about the C’s [...]

]]> By: Zach Lowe http://celticshub.com/2009/03/12/the-celtics-clutch-offense-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-383 Zach Lowe Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:56:24 +0000 http://celticshub.com/?p=766#comment-383 Great comment, man. I didn't look at minutes because I was tallying it on a game-by-game basis, and it would have taken me forever to do that for each player. But you're right--it would have been useful. If there's a site out there that breaks down minutes played--in each game--by quarter, let me know. Great comment, man. I didn't look at minutes because I was tallying it on a game-by-game basis, and it would have taken me forever to do that for each player. But you're right–it would have been useful. If there's a site out there that breaks down minutes played–in each game–by quarter, let me know.

]]> By: drza44 http://celticshub.com/2009/03/12/the-celtics-clutch-offense-the-big-three/comment-page-1/#comment-363 drza44 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 11:50:17 +0000 http://celticshub.com/?p=766#comment-363 Thank you for these two crunch time articles, as they are in depth and very interesting. On this particular one, though, there are 2 things that I think weaken the conclusions that you reach: 1) you didn't include total minutes played in these situations, and 2) you didn't look at a wide enough array of stats. 1) Because your research was so in depth, I don't have access to all of the numbers that you do. But I do know that to open most 4th quarters this year, Pierce is in there with the 2nd unit while Ray and KG rest and that KG is often the last of the Big 3 to come off the bench in the 4th. Thus, Pierce plays a lot more 4th quarter minutes in general even beyond KG's injury. According to 82games.com, Pierce has played 483 total minutes in the 4th quarter, Ray 396 minutes, and KG 257 minutes. Now that's overall 4th quarter minutes (not just the 30 games you cite), but if that ratio holds true in minutes played in clutch 4th quarters then you are severely skewing your data by posting total shots made/attempted without accounting for minutes played. By the totals you post, Pierce has 202 points in clutch 4th Qs, Ray has 143 points, and KG has 99 points. But if you adjust based on their total 4th quarter minutes ratio, Pierce would have 107 points, KG 99, and Ray 93. That's a wonking big difference in the impressions/conclusions one would take from your article, if that minutes ratio holds true. 2) I disagree that being clutch is purely about points scored, so I also like 82games.com's approach of looking at all stats in their defined "clutch" (final 5 minutes of 4th quarters within 5 points). Again, based on their clutch definition, this is how the Big 3 look per 48 minutes: Truth: 37.6 points, 44.4% FG (21.7 FGA), 81% FT (20.7 FTA), 40% 3s (3.4 trey attempts), 4.5 reb, 6.9 asts, 4.8 TOs, 0 blks, 1.4 steals Ray: 24.4 points, 42.9% FG (14.6 FGA), 96% FT (9.1 FTA), 34.6% 3s (9.1 trey attempts), 4.5 reb, 1.4 asts, 1.4 TOs, 0 blks, .3 steals KG: 25.5 points, 64.7% FG (17 FGA), 77% FT (4.5 FTA), 0 3s, 13.5 reb, 4.0 asts, 2.5 TOs, 4.0 blks, 3.0 steals To me, this gives a much more accurate view of how the Big 3 have perform in the clutch this season. Truth has been the primary scorer/initiator, Ray more of a 3-pt threat/game icer at the line, KG the efficient scorer/secondary offense initiator that dominates on defense. I have no problem with the way you define crunch time instead of how 82games does it, and if you want to look purely at offense (like your title suggests) then that's fine too. But if you're going to make conclusions on how important the Big 3 are in the clutch then I think you have to look at more than just scoring since there are more ways to win than just scoring, and the Big 3 each have well defined areas in which they are relied upon to lead both in regular and in crunch time situations. Thank you for these two crunch time articles, as they are in depth and very interesting. On this particular one, though, there are 2 things that I think weaken the conclusions that you reach: 1) you didn't include total minutes played in these situations, and 2) you didn't look at a wide enough array of stats.

1) Because your research was so in depth, I don't have access to all of the numbers that you do. But I do know that to open most 4th quarters this year, Pierce is in there with the 2nd unit while Ray and KG rest and that KG is often the last of the Big 3 to come off the bench in the 4th. Thus, Pierce plays a lot more 4th quarter minutes in general even beyond KG's injury. According to 82games.com, Pierce has played 483 total minutes in the 4th quarter, Ray 396 minutes, and KG 257 minutes. Now that's overall 4th quarter minutes (not just the 30 games you cite), but if that ratio holds true in minutes played in clutch 4th quarters then you are severely skewing your data by posting total shots made/attempted without accounting for minutes played. By the totals you post, Pierce has 202 points in clutch 4th Qs, Ray has 143 points, and KG has 99 points. But if you adjust based on their total 4th quarter minutes ratio, Pierce would have 107 points, KG 99, and Ray 93. That's a wonking big difference in the impressions/conclusions one would take from your article, if that minutes ratio holds true.

2) I disagree that being clutch is purely about points scored, so I also like 82games.com's approach of looking at all stats in their defined "clutch" (final 5 minutes of 4th quarters within 5 points). Again, based on their clutch definition, this is how the Big 3 look per 48 minutes:

Truth: 37.6 points, 44.4% FG (21.7 FGA), 81% FT (20.7 FTA), 40% 3s (3.4 trey attempts), 4.5 reb, 6.9 asts, 4.8 TOs, 0 blks, 1.4 steals

Ray: 24.4 points, 42.9% FG (14.6 FGA), 96% FT (9.1 FTA), 34.6% 3s (9.1 trey attempts), 4.5 reb, 1.4 asts, 1.4 TOs, 0 blks, .3 steals

KG: 25.5 points, 64.7% FG (17 FGA), 77% FT (4.5 FTA), 0 3s, 13.5 reb, 4.0 asts, 2.5 TOs, 4.0 blks, 3.0 steals

To me, this gives a much more accurate view of how the Big 3 have perform in the clutch this season. Truth has been the primary scorer/initiator, Ray more of a 3-pt threat/game icer at the line, KG the efficient scorer/secondary offense initiator that dominates on defense. I have no problem with the way you define crunch time instead of how 82games does it, and if you want to look purely at offense (like your title suggests) then that's fine too. But if you're going to make conclusions on how important the Big 3 are in the clutch then I think you have to look at more than just scoring since there are more ways to win than just scoring, and the Big 3 each have well defined areas in which they are relied upon to lead both in regular and in crunch time situations.

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