Welcome Back Big Baby; Bill Walker’s -21

Posted by Zach Lowe on Mar 19, 2009 8761 commenthttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F03%2F19%2Fwelcome-back-big-baby-bill-walkers-21%2FWelcome+Back+Big+Baby%3B+Bill+Walker%27s+-212009-03-20+03%3A20%3A26Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D876

Two numbers jumped out at me when I saw the box score from yesterday’s OT win over the Heat: the plus 27 next to Big Baby’s name and the minus 24 next to Bill Walker’s.

I am fully aware of the limitations of plus/minus as a basketball stat, especially in the raw form in which it appears in most box scores. But it’s still interesting to dig into a game log and find out what, if anything, explains one player’s hefty plus and another’s sad, sad minus.

As for Big Baby, the offense was humming when he was on the court last night. During his 41 (!) minutes of play, the C’s offense scored on 46 of 69 trips down the floor. Using a multiple of two points per scoring possession (which is pretty accurate for Baby’s 41 minutes), that’s 92 points in 69 possessions—or about 133 points per 100 possessions, a mark which would blow away anything a team has ever done over a long stretch of time.

The bulk of Baby’s plus numbers came in the first nine minutes of the game, when he was plus 15 and the C’s took a 26-11 lead. Baby scored four points in that span on 2-of-3 shooting. Paul Price scored 12 points in the same stretch. (Note: Baby’s stats on 82games suggest he doesn’t have a potent impact on the C’s offense).

On the flip side, let’s look at Bill Walker’s 13 minutes of -21 action. The offense produced at least a point on just nine of 22 trips while Walker was on the floor. Aside from a brief OT appearance, almost all of Walker’s playing time came in two stretches, one at the end of the first quarter, and the other at the end of the second.

In the first, Walker was mostly on the floor with other back-ups (Moore, House, Pruitt and Marbury for a small stretch). It’s not a surprise that line-up got outscored.

During the second stint, he got quality time with Pierce, Perkins and Rondo, and the play-by-play shows those three were most responsible for the offensive let down. Perk missed a couple of chippies inside, Pierce went 0-2 with a turnover and Rondo also committed on offensive foul. So maybe Walker’s off the hook here, or maybe his offense is so limited that it makes everything harder for the rest of the team. That’s the beauty and the frustration of plus/minus—it’s hard to reach a definitive conclusion.

One definitive conclusion you can reach: Miami killed the C’s with offensive rebounds during Walker’s time in the game. By my count on the ESPN game log, the Heat grabbed seven of their eight offensive boards in those 13 minutes. Something to watch for in the future, especially since Walker’s minutes overlapped more closely with Mikki Moore’s.

 Overall, Miami’s offense scored on 17 of 24 possessions with Walker on the floor.