Whether you like or hate the TrueHoop Network (and there appears to be some hatred out there), one of the pleasures of being a part of it is talking hoops with other fanatics who know their teams inside and out. So I was very excited when Graydon Gordian of the Spurs-themed blog 48 Minutes of Hell asked me to answer some questions about the Celtics for a regular pre-game feature on his site. I decided that as long as we were e-mailing, I’d ask him to do the same for Celtics Hub. Go here to read my take Marbury, the importance of home court and whether the Celtics are dirty. Below are Graydon’s answers to my questions about Los Spurs.
CH: Aside from the Big Three being healthy, what needs to happen over the course of seven games for the Spurs to be able to beat the Lakers?
48: “Aside from the Big Three being healthy” is a big aside. If Manu Ginobili isn’t at 100% then the Spurs will not defeat the Lakers. But assuming that all three are still healthy come the Western Conference Finals, I’d argue the second most important development that needs to occur is the successful integration of Drew Gooden into the system. The ability to score in the low post is something the Spurs sorely lack when Duncan isn’t in the game. If Gooden can fully acclimate himself, he provides a much needed offensive presence off the bench (before his acquisition Ginobili was the only player coming off the bench with a potent offensive game).
We’ll also need to steal a couple of close ones. People forget that last year 3 of the 5 games were close and we lost all 3. This season 2 of our 3 regular season games were close as well. We’ll get blown out of a couple of games but if we played them tight for 48 minutes, we need to win. The Lakers and the Spurs are excellent “crunch time” teams. Both have great jump shooters and have the mental discipline to not beat themselves.
CH: According to Basketball Reference, the Spurs are last (worst) in the NBA in both offensive rebounding percentage and ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. Does this reflect a lack of aggressiveness and the use of Matt Bonner at center? Or does it stem from the team’s offensive philosophy?
48: When on the offensive end of the floor Matt Bonner spends most of his time perched along the perimeter while Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas (who were in the majority of last season’s starting lineups) were a stronger presence in the paint. So that’s definitely one reason we have such a low offensive rebound percentage. Another is our philosophy regarding transition defense: Popovich openly eschews the offensive rebound in order to prevent the fast break. You’ll oftentimes see 2, maybe even 3 guys fall back on defense once a shot goes up.
As far as FTA to FGA are concerned, I think that stems from the fact that most of the guys on this team are jump shooters, or more specifically 3-point shooters. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili are the only guys who can consistently score at the rim. Nearly everyone else waits along the 3-point line in the hopes that one of the big three can collapse the defense and setup an open 3-point shot. In addition to our addiction to 3-point shooting (we attempt almost 20 a game), both Duncan and Parker have begun taking more mid-range jumpers than in previous seasons. So several aspects of our offense are not designed to create contact.
CH: You’ve written before that “Duncan is the window,” though you seem to have questioned that at least a little bit lately given Tony Parker’s ascent to true superstardom. How much does Duncan have left, and how is he adapting his game, on both ends, as he ages?
48: I think Duncan has a fair amount of basketball left in him. His game has never been based off athleticism. It has always been about finesse and positioning. Most of the rebounds he collects or shots he blocks come with both feet firmly planted on the floor. And he could keep hitting that bank shot until he’s 65. He’ll probably start seeing less minutes or, as we’ve seen over the course of this season, sit for one end of a back-to-back. His biggest drop off may actually come on the defensive end, where his decreasing quickness will become an issue. But even on the defensive end his savvy will allow him to remain effective.
As far as Duncan being the window or not, my thought is this: Yes, Duncan is a once in a lifetime player. A top ten all time player. But with an elite point guard, one of the best coaches in the NBA and one of the best GMs in the NBA, the Spurs have the buildiing blocks of a competitive team. There is a lot of work to be done between then and now but if Parker, Popovich and Buford are all around after Duncan retires, the Spurs can still be a perennial playoff presence. (FYI Popovich has said he may retire with Duncan so that is by no means a sure thing.
CH: You were excited about the Drew Gooden acquisition. How has he looked so far? Over/under: How many minutes does Drew Gooden play in an elimination game?
48: Gooden has looked good. He’s a bit of a defensive liability but he seems able to produce the offensive presence off the bench that we hoped he would provide. As he learns the system his minutes will increase but he’ll never see time down the stretch. In late game scenarios Popovich will go with guys he trusts, guys he knows won’t make mental errors. Gooden will never reach that point (at least not this season). I’d place his over/under in an elimination game at 12 minutes. But most of those 12 will come in the second, third and possibly early fourth.
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