Another Friday Night with the Hawks
Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 3, 2009
Boston: 57-19; Offensive Eff 110.6 (5th); Defensive Eff 101.6 (1st)
Atlanta: 43-32; Offensive Eff 109.3 (11th); Defensive Eff 107.3 (12th)
Hawks Blogs: Peachtree Hoops; Hoopinion
This is, in all likelihood, the last time the Celtics will face the Hawks this year, and I, for one, am happy about it (unless they meet again the Eastern Conference Finals). These games tend to be close, tense affairs in which the shooting percentages hover in the low 40s. The games aren’t pretty, but they are usually damn entertaining, and they present a lot of interesting match-up issues on both sides.
Whether this game means anything is up for debate. Atlanta has basically clinched the fourth seed, up three games over Philly in the loss column with an easy schedule the rest of the way. Boston is tied with Orlando for the second seed, and though Doc says the team doesn’t care about finishing in that spot, he was scoreboard watching Wednesday night. I’d be surprised if the team didn’t care just a little.
In any case, the C’s held the Hawks to 42 percent shooting last Friday and largely contained Joe Johnson, holding him to 10 field goal attempts through the first 42 minutes of the game. The C’s either doubled “Joe” (as the Hawks announcers refer to him) right when he received the ball or had a help defender very conspicuously shade over toward him. Expect them to do the same thing tonight.
The focus on Johnson will obviously open up some opportunities for other Hawks, particularly Josh Smith and Al Horford. Glen Davis handled Horford beautifully last Friday, forcing Horford away from the basket on most shot attempts. Horford has struggled badly against Boston this season, averaging six points per game on 29 percent shooting. Smith has hurt the C’s (18ppg, with 16 free throw attempts in two games–he missed one meeting), but not devastatingly so. The C’s can only pull this defense off if the rotations are crisp and precise.
The C’s screen/roll defense on Bibby was sloppy last Friday, and Bibby made them pay by hitting some open jumpers. Bibby is a sieve on defense, but he can still shoot the ball from the perimeter (39 percent on threes). The big guys have to do a better job of showing when Rondo opts to chase Bibby over screens.
On the other end, expect the C’s do run a lot of screen/rolls. Both Peachtree Hoops and Hoopinion have spilled lots of Internet Ink lamenting the Hawks poor screen/roll defense. The Hawks switch almost all the time–and that’s probably in part because Bibby isn’t so good at fighting through screens or keeping up with quick guards in the first place–and that rampant switching can create lots of mismatches. Philly took advantage of this on Wednesday when they found Al Horford guarding Lou Williams outside or Bibby guarding Marreese Speights in the post. The Rondo-Pierce screen roll we’ve seen more of this season could help create similar mismatches.
Also, look for Rondo to attack, attack, attack off the dribble, and look for Perk (a non-factor last week due to foul trouble) to be assert himself now and then on the low block.
Another key: winning the three-point battle. The Hawks take a lot of threes (seventh-most in the league) but make them at an average rate (17th best percentage), though their own success rate doesn’t change much between wins (36.9%) and losses (36.1%). It’s their opponents percentage from three that really matters; in wins, the Hawks hold opponents to 30.5 percent from deep, while in losses, opponents are hitting at a 42 percent clip. The C’s shoot the best percentage from three (39.2) in the NBA. Hit ‘em tonight, and the C’s win.
A few more keys, after the jump.• Pound the offensive glass. The Hawks, for all their athleticism, aren’t a big or tall team, and they’ve got the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the league. The C’s missed 41 shots at Atlanta last Friday and grabbed 14 offensive boards.
• Force turnovers. We all know the C’s are going to cough it up (though the Hawks are strictly average at forcing turnovers), but Atlanta is a top 10 team (7th, actually) in terms of turnover rate on offense.
• Limit transition opportunities. Both of these teams are in the bottom third of the league in terms of pace factor, but, anecdotally, it just feels like the Hawks create problems for the C’s when their young guys–especially Smith–get out and run.
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