If Only This Meant Something…Besides the 40-1 Thing

Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 12, 2009 13270 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F04%2F12%2Fif-only-this-meant-somethingbesides-the-40-1-thing%2FIf+Only+This+Meant+Something...Besides+the+40-1+Thing2009-04-12+15%3A07%3A48Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D1327

Cleveland (64-15); Off Eff 112.2 (4th), Def Eff 102.3 (3rd)

Boston (60-19); Off Eff 110.7 (5th), Def Eff 110.8 (1st)

It’s too bad Cleveland pulled away in the race for the top seed, because if this game had playoff implications plus the bonus of Boston trying to preserve the 1986 Celtics best-ever 40-1 home record, it would be one of the most exciting regular season games in recent memory.

Instead, we’ve got two teams locked into their playoff seeds with little incentive to bring playoff intensity. Pride and history matter, and the teams will probably come out a bit fired up early, but you know it’s not going to last four quarters. The Knicks and Nets made sure this game would mean nothing. 

We’ve seen these two teams face each other enough to know what we’re going to get– a slow paced game in which the C’s try like mad to either force LeBron into taking long jumpers or funnel him toward help waiting 12 to 15 feet from the rim. (Note: That distance–12 feet or so–isn’t completely random. In three games against Boston this year, LeBron is 10-of-35 from 11 feet and out, and he’s only taken a single shot from between six and 10 feet away from the basket. He’s 17-of-25 one he gets within that range).

The strategy worked well in the teams’ last meeting, a 105-94 win–the C’s most impressive of the season–in which LBJ shot just 5-of-15. There’s not much to write that hasn’t already been written. I’d like to see the C’s do a better job on Cleveland’s big men (either Ilgauskas or Varejao–or both–has scored in double figures in all three meetings this season), but that’s an ancillary issue.

So I scoured 82games and Basketball Reference looking for some chink in Cleveland’s armor, some undiscovered weakness. And I thought I’d found one: the Cavs are near the bottom of the league (26th) in terms of the percentage of their shots that come from in close. They are a team of mere jump-shooters! They are nothing but a souped-up version of the Bulls!

But then you see that they make 63.4 percent of those in-close shots–best in the league. And that they make 38.9 percent of their three-pointers–second best in the league, behind only Boston. (And they take a lot, too–fifth-most in the NBA in terms of percentage of shot attempts). And you realize this team has become an elite scoring team without a consistently exploitable offensive weakness. Shoot, even Varejao is hitting double-digits against the C’s now and then.

If you want one stat that sums up the entire NBA season, here it is:

Cleveland’s eFG% last season: .480 (26th in NBA)

Cleveland’s eFG% this season: .517 (4th)

That is fantastic, fantastic stuff, and it’s a testament to Mike Brown’s willingness to experiment more on offense, LeBron’s improvement as a distributor and Mo Williams’ ability to knock down jump shots. LeBron draws the defense, and just about every other Cav on the floor around him can shoot.

(On a side note, my favorite thing about LeBron might be his skip passes. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen someone throw better skip pass. He rises up from near the sideline and fires these two-handed bullets to shooters spotting up in the opposite corner. These things must be going, what, 30 miles per hour? 50? I have no clue how fast you can throw a basketball.)

This is not meant to say Cleveland is unbeatable. The Celtics are still number five in offensive efficiency and number one in defensive efficiency, and the latter deserves a nod of appreciation considering KG’s prolonged absence. They can beat Cleveland, and they can beat Cleveland in Cleveland. There’s just no urgency to do so today.

With that out of the way, I’ll be focusing on the side shows–more offensive improvement from Marbury, more rust-shaking from Tony Allen, and, especially, how the Celtics and Rondo go after Mo Williams on screen/rolls. Like the C’s, the Cavs run a lot of 1-3 screen rolls with LeBron and Williams, often with the design of getting LeBron matched up with a point guard. But the C’s have to do a better job of limiting Williams’ open looks. When he’s hitting shots, Cleveland is very, very tough to beat.

Other than that, let’s get through the game healthy and a bit more prepared for the next step.