Archive for June, 2009

After an unexpectedly long waiting period, Eddie House decided Tuesday to exercise his 2.9 million player option and stay with the C’s for at least one more year according to Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald

Celtics Hub’s Take: House had us worried there for awhile when his agent Mark Bartleson declared that House was unsure whether he would exercise the player option. Celtics Hub’s Zach Lowe explored the possibility at length a couple weeks back, but came to the conclusion that it would be wise for Eddie to come back at the safe price. After some investigation of what will undoubtedly be a down market, Eddie and his agent came to the same conclusion.

I don’t blame Eddie at all for at least testing the waters of the market. For a guy who has bounced around the league (8 teams in 10 years) as much as House, it would have been foolish of him not to kick the tires and see what could potentially be out there after the best season of his career, when he set the regular season 3 point shooting percentage record for the C’s at a 44.4% clip.

In past years, a season like that could have earned the sharpshooter perhaps a small raise, or at least a multiple year deal at the same amount of money (2.9 million) he will be making this season with the C’s. However with the economic situation as it is affecting the spending of many franchises around the league and the salary cap predicted to go down by a couple million dollars, the open market would nor be prone to provide any promising opportunities for a role player like Eddie House. In fact, there was no guarantee he would get a deal that offered him the 3 million dollars he would be looking at for resigning with the C’s.

These realities left Eddie in a situation where he had his best season of this career at the worst possible time as far as the market goes. Not a lot of guys are going to get paid well this offseason but I think we can all agree that Eddie made the safe and smart choice here by not pushing his chips to the middle of the table and attempting to score a long term deal, when there was likely not one out there to be had.

Three million dollars is a fair salary for a player like House in this economic climate and I think both the C’s and Eddie would agree on that. I for one will be enthused to see Eddie suit up in Green next season as it brings back at least some familiarity to what will be a retooled Celtics bench next year.

Celtics fans know Eddie and know exactly what they can expect out of him. Here’s hoping he can build even more on what was a tremendous 2008-09 campaign as the team brings in more pieces to assist him in forming a productive bench.

Oh boy. We are going to hear a lot about Rasheed Wallace over the next few weeks. The ‘Sheed rumors got off a rip-roaring start bursting with journalistic clarity when Gary Tanguay declared on CSN yesterday that, “It looks like [Wallace] will be a member of the Celtics…I’ll leave it at that.” (Hat tip: CelticsBlog). Tanguay than immediately clarified via his blog that he was just stating what his “gut” is telling him, based in part on the fact that ‘Sheed and KG are friends.

(In case you missed it, Ric Bucher Tweeted last week that ‘Sheed won’t come to Boston. Bucher is a solid Tweeter, by the way. Hollinger should invent a Twitter formula somehow measuring the Value Added each Tweeter creates based on the quality and quantity of tweets and the links he/she posts. Bucher would rank solidly here among NBA journos).

We’ll have more time to fully evaluate ‘Sheed, but here are some preliminary things to consider when debating whether ‘Sheed is worth the full mid-level exception (expected to be about $5.6 million):

1) He’s almost 35

2) In 2009, he scored the fewest points per 36 minutes (13.5) since his rookie year

3) In 2009, he recorded his lowest PER since his rookie year

4) In 2009, he recorded the lowest offensive rebounding rate of his career. (He grabbed 3.1 percent of available offensive rebounds, an unthinkably bad number that is far, far worse than the rate put up by every center in the NBA who qualified for the scoring title last season, according to Basketball Reference). In fairness, this has never been one of Wallace’s strong points.

5) In 2009, he had the lowest assist rate (7.1 percent) of his career

6) In 2009, his blocks per 36 minutes number fell to its lowest level since 2005

7) In 2009, an astonishing 89 percent of Wallace’s field goal attempts were jump shots, easily the highest number I could find among both power forwards and centers. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s simply an indication that his offensive game is very predictable now.

8 ) He has some sort of temper problem. You may have heard about this. 

Look, these are facts. People love ‘Sheed. He’s colorful, he’s tough, he has a unique skill set–always has–and he said “Ball Don’t Lie.” But if this isn’t the profile of a guy on the decline, I don’t know what is. He just finished a season of surliness and occasional laziness, and he has fewer and fewer demonstrably above-average basketball skills. 

But those skills are valuable. Among them:

1) He can shoot three-pointers. He hit 35 percent of his threes last season, basically the same hit rate he’s recorded since ’04. It’s not great. But it’s solid for a near seven-footer, and there is no question that the mere threat of ‘Sheed spotting up spaces the floor. 

2) He rarely turns the ball over. His turnover rate has been below 10 percent in each of the last four seasons. Know how many other guys who use up at least 18 percent of their team’s possessions can make that claim? Three: Antawn Jamison, Tayshaun Prince and Dirk Nowitzki. Such an underrated offensive skill. 

3) He’s still an ace defender when he tries, especially in the post. His ability to bother Dwight Howard is well-chronicled, and judging by the Shaq trade, everyone is supposed to make off-season acquisitions with the goal of stopping D12. (Just kidding–I know Shaq brings more to the table than just Howard Stop-ability, as Jay Bilas might say).

4) While his offensive rebounding his declined badly, his defensive rebounding hasn’t. He grabbed about 25 percent of all available defensive boards last season, the highest rate of his career. That would rate have ranked fifth among 20 centers eligible for the scoring title, behind only Joel Przybilla, Howard, Sam Dalembert and Emeka Okafor, according to Basketball Reference.

It’s no accident that Detroit’s offense and defense have performed better in the last two seasons with Wallace on the court than with him on the bench, according to 82games.com (See here for ’09, here for ’08). The effect is nowhere near as dramatic as it was when ‘Sheed was in his prime during the ’04 championship run (seriously, look at these freaking numbers) but there’s still some evidence the guy can have a positive impact on the floor–provided he’s motivated. 

Would he be motivated to play 15-20 minutes per game as the C’s sixth man? Enough to offset an obvious drop-off in his raw basketball abilities? 

Would you throw him $5.6 million to find out, leaving only the biannual exception and the vet’s minimum exception to fill the others holes on the team?

This week marks the beginning of the NBA’s free agent season. Here’s a quick round-up of what to expect this, with a focus on some stuff in the news over the weekend:

• Big Baby: The Celtics will tender Glen Davis his qualifying offer (about $1 million) by the deadline on Tuesday night, giving Boston the right to match any offer another team makes for Davis. (They will likely do the same with Leon Powe). We’ve gone over the Glen Davis question a dozen times, but just to review: The Celtics can re-sign Davis for any amount without using their mid-level exception because they own Davis’s “Early Bird” rights. That’s good news. 

The bad news, of course, is that Boston is already over the luxury tax, so every dollar they spend on any player is really the equivalent of spending two dollars because of the dollar-for-dollar tax imposed on teams over the luxury tax line (expected to be about $70 million). So it matters if Davis thinks he’s worth, say, $5.5 million as opposed to $3.5 million. 

The Globe’s Marc Spears has reported before that one GM has pegged Big Baby’s value at about $3 or $4 million in the first season of his new deal, an amount I’d be comfortable with Boston spending–provided the deal doesn’t escalate much beyond the $5 million mark by its final season. But now Spears reports that another GM thinks some team might throw something close to the full mid-level (about $5.5 million) at Big Baby.

That, my friends, would give the Celtics something to think really hard about.

By the way, it’s important to think beyond the first-season value of any new Davis contract. Wyc Grousbeck has said he’d like to be in a position to offer a max contract after the 2010 season, and that would be impossible if the C’s sign Davis to a deal that escalates too much in Year Two. 

Other notes on Davis in that article: He’s practicing Muay Tai boxing to keep in shape and working on a three-point shot. Gotta love the work ethic, even if the idea of Baby jacking up threes seems ridiculous. 

• Eddie House has to decide by Tuesday night whether he’s going to opt out of his $2.8 million deal for 2010 and become a free agent. I expect him to sign the original deal. My thoughts on what the C’s should if he actually opts out can be found here. 

• As for free agents, we know the big guys the C’s are going to be targeting, and we’ve profiled some of them in detail. One guy we haven’t thought much about is Jason Kidd, but Eddie Sefko, the great Mavs beat writer for the Dallas Morning News, thinks Boston is among the teams that will at least take a look at signing Kidd. 

This seems really, really unlikely considering the Celtics already have Rajon Rondo and don’t have a lot of money to blow on a back-up point guard. Kidd made $21 million last season, and though he’s not going to make that amount, he’s still worth at least the mid-level exception. He’s not the player he once was, but he still played 36 minutes a game for a team that made the Western Conference semi-finals, and he’s been shooting better with Dallas (especially from three-point range) than he has…well, basically, at any point in his career. It’s amazing what playing with Dirk Nowitzki and taking only stand-still jumpers can do for your shooting percentages. 

On the other hand, he’s 36, his assist rate last season was the lowest since his rookie year (perhaps the result of the Mavs’ iso-heavy attack) and he can no longer defend quick point guards well. 

Still: He’s worth at least the mid-level next season, and Dallas can sign him to any amount up to the league max under the NBA’s rules governing how teams can sign their incumbent free agents. 

So basically: Kidd is not coming here as a free agent, and I’m not sure what the point would be in spending big money on someone to play 12-15 minutes per game backing up Rondo–unless the Celtics end up dealing Rondo in a separate deal or in a sign-and-trade involving Dallas, both scenarios I consider unlikely. 

Bottom line: The C’s are going to spend the mid-level on big guys. (Ainge to Spears on Sunday: “The priority is to take care of our big positions”).

• Oh, and according to Screamin’ A’s Twitter account, Dahntay Jones wants a multi-year deal (duh), and the C’s are reportedly willing to shell out $8 million for two seasons of his work. This would be an utterly ridiculous deal, for reasons I explain here. I am highly skeptical of Smith’s report (does a Tweet count as a report? There has been some controversy about this), though, whatever you say about Smith, he has a lot of sources in the NBA.

In any case, free agency starts Wednesday. Let the fun begin.

The dust has started to settle after one of the most active offseason weeks in NBA history. Despite the countless number of deals which went down in the past seven days, the Celtics stood quiet, which was particularly surprising to me, given Ainge’s propensity to make draft day moves in his past few years at the helm.

News is beginning to filter out that indicates that the C’s in fact were still attempting make a trade to move up in the 2nd round. First, The Memphis Commercial Appeal is reporting that the Celtics were one of numerous suitors for the Grizzlies 36th pick in the draft:

Boston tried to entice the Grizzlies twice. The Celtics offered Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen and a choice of J.R. Giddens or Bill Walker for the Grizzlies’ 36th pick and cash considerations.

The Celtics’ best offer for the Grizzlies’ No. 2 pick only included center Kendrick Perkins.

Paul Flannery of WEEI.com confirms the C’s interest in the early 2nd round and throws out a couple names, the C’s had to have been surprised to see drop so far:

There were a number of intriguing players who fell into the second round and Ainge said he had discussions about moving up, but elected to stay put. Among those mentioned were former Big East stalwarts Sam Young and DeJuan Blair from Pitt and DaJuan Summers from Georgetown, who went in consecutive picks from 35-37.

Another name that apparently intrigued Ainge was St. Mary’s point guard Patrick Mills, who went three spots ahead of Boston to Portland.

Still, Ainge said he was happy to get Hudson saying, “We had him rated much higher.”

Now there are a couple of things that stick out to me from these reports.

1) Danny Ainge confirmed my suspicions on how he would try to make a deal. Here is an excerpt of what I wrote on June 18th regarding the problems Danny faced in making any deal during the draft or offseason.

The Celtics quite simply have NO signed assets on their bench. No one any other team would look at and think “Hey, they’d likely be a contributing member of our rotation.” or “Sure, that’s someone we’d be interested in dealing for” unless they got rid of some dead weight themselves in the deal from their roster.

Therefore, if Danny even wants to keep these other GM’s on the phone, he has to at least acknowledge the possibility he’s willing to part with one of his starting five even if he has no strong intentions of dealing them.

Over the course of trade talks, Danny turns down any deal involving the starting five, but during these talks manages to convince an opposing GM that a player like Tony Allen or Bill Walker could be a good “fit” on their roster and gets back a draft pick (think early 2nd round) and/or another insignificant but potentially serviceable player.

Given TA’s injury woes and the Celtics’ young bench players lack of floor time, convincing any team to bite on a deal involving them that still makes sense for the Celtics financially is a long shot. You never know though if Chris Wallace is involved.

Well Ainge laid the bait out there with his offer of Scal, TA, Walker/Giddens for the 36th pick, but the problem even Chris Wallace was smart enough to turn it down, simply because there is no way that deal does anything positive for a rebuilding Grizzlies team. They are all ready set at the 2 and 3 spots for the future with O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay manning those spots.

The Allen and Scal contracts are just added salary and expiring contracts, but really just are dead weight on a bad team like Memphis. Giddens or Walker could be appealing but neither of them has showed enough promise for Grizzlies to take the additional baggage in the offer AND give up a early 2nd round pick for the trio. So Danny swung and missed on this one, but I give him credit for trying while not giving up anything substantial.

2) The fact that the Celtics were unwilling to buy any of these picks tells me that Danny is saving any additional money that ownership gave him in the budget for this offseason until free agency. As indicated before, this was a weak draft, but there were a potential 1st round picks that fell deep into the 2nd round, (Blair, Summers, Patrick Mills). All evening, I was expecting the C’s to buy one of these picks, which were being sold left and right all night.

Danny’s inclination not to move up a few spots to grab someone like Patrick Mills indicates to me that enough players the C’s were targeting at the 58th spot had fallen far enough by the end of the 2nd round to guarantee the C’s at least one player they would be satisfied with. This reality eliminated the pressing need to buy a pick to get one of their guys.

Ainge’s quote about Lester Hudson says it all, “We had him rated much higher.” That revelation makes me feel much better about Hudson’s chances of contributing this year, despite the unimpressive history of players drafted at 58.

For now we wait until the next round of action starts this Wednesday July 1st with the onset of free agency. The C’s have their spending budget intact, and their foundation intact. On Wednesday, look for Danny to start making the moves that fills the holes that remained in place after an uneventful draft.