Archive for July, 2009

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Rajon Rondo’s Step Back

July 24th, 2009

rondoshootsA current list of my obsessions might look something like this:

1) Mila Kunis

2) Discussing ways in which the Harry Potter movies deviate from the books

3) Rajon Rondo‘s jump shot.

4) Finding a new apartment in New York

Since this is a basketball blog, I won’t discuss the dreaminess of Mila in “Forgetting Sarah Marshall,” the lack of Voldemort flashbacks in “Half-Blood Prince” or how creating a fake new nickname for the financial district (the “FinDi”) is wrong on at least three different levels.

I will discuss Rajon Rondo’s jump shot, because it is the one thing preventing the Celtics from developing a truly elite offense. With all the KG-inspired focus on the C’s defense the last two seasons, the casual fans have overlooked the fact that the C’s have had a very good to excellent offense since the Big Three arrived. Last year they were fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency (110.5 points per possessions); in their 2008 title season, they ranked 10th in offensive efficiency, at 110.2.  The best offenses of the post-Bird/Magic here (the Jordan Bulls and Nash Suns) have averaged about 114 points per 100 possessions, so the Celtics are a boost away from that sort of greatness.

This despite having a point guard who, outside of occasional flashes, cannot shoot jump shots. And if you don’t think it’s nice when your point guard can shoot, check out the great Jon Nichols’ study (available here at Hardwood Paroxysm) on how good three-point shooting PG impacts a team’s offensive efficiency.

Rajon is nowhere near becoming a good three-point shooter, of course. But I think we’d all settle for some progress on the 15- to 20-foot two-pointers. Unfortunately, we saw no progress between 2008 and 2009. Here are the numbers, using NBA’s hot spot data for every chunk of time other than the 2009 playoffs, which the hot spot data doesn’t include. For the 2009 playoffs, I went through Rajon’s shot charts for all 14 C’s games and tracked only shots from outside 15 feet.

First, the regular season:

2007-8 Regular Season                     2008-9 Regular Season

At the rim                              220-405 (54%)                                          283-497  (57%)

Floaters                                   42-108 (39%)                                              32-90 (36%)

Long twos                               84-186 (45%)                                              51-117 (43.5%)

Threes                                       5-17 (29%)                                                  15-48 (31%)

With teams daring him to shoot, Rondo lowered his head and darted his way to the rim with even more determination in 2009. On the one hand, this is a good thing. He hits a high percentage of his in-close shots, and his penetration breaks down the defense and creates open looks for everyone else. » More: Rajon Rondo’s Step Back

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Posted in Commentary, Features

The Marbury Question

July 22nd, 2009

stephkg1Speculation has been running rampant in the past 48 hours regarding the potential return of Stephon Marbury to Beantown. It started with an unconfirmed report from NES247.com that the former Georgia Tech star would be back in green. This story has fueled futher speculation as well as the rebuffing of any new movement towards a deal from different sources all around the net.  

At this point, I think if any deal were to go down with Marbury it’s not going to come for a while yet, unless Marbury takes his medicine and accepts the veteran’s minimum contract he reportedly turned down from Danny Ainge weeks ago. There have been reports out there that the C’s may offer Marbury some, if not all of their biannual exception for him to return to town, but that rumor seems foolish to me for a couple reasons.

1) The team has committed that money (1.9 million) to Marquis Daniels for the time being. Now we know Ainge is looking to avoid this and acquire Daniels in a sign and trade with Indiana while shedding some of the C’s excess baggage in the form of Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine. However for the reasons I discussed earlier this week, that scenario doesn’t look promising unless a 3rd team were to get involved. If that somehow gets done, I think that still wouldn’t matter much which brings me to my second point.

 2) Stephon Marbury is not worth the biannual exception. That may seem like a harsh assessment but it is the truth. His inconsistent play combined with a down economy has left most teams looking to shed excess dollars. A few years ago, the market for a reclamation project like Marbury would have been more promising for the former Knick. For a couple million dollars, someone could have been willing to take a flier on Marbury becoming a competent NBA point guard once again after sitting out the majority of last season.

Right now though, we are talking about a guy in Starbury who is 32 years old and shot 34% from the field last year and 24% from downtown. Do I think those numbers will go up next year? In the right spot with the right team, absolutely. I wouldn’t be willing to bet the farm on it though, and to be honest I just don’t think there are many of those situations out there for him.

There are clearly far fewer than Marbury himself anticipated going into free agency as it appears few if any teams have come knocking. In fact, several teams lacking depth at the one spot, also addressed their need in a draft that was deep with PG’s this year (Utah, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Denver to name a few)

Those draft picks combined with a bear market has worked in favor of the Celtics on potentially having the option of bringing back Marbury at a discounted rate. I guess my question through all of these rumors is if Stephon is worth bringing back all together? A closer look at this proposition after the jump. » More: The Marbury Question

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Posted in Commentary, Features, Offseason

The Posey Decision: One Year Later

July 22nd, 2009

poseWe all miss James Posey. I’d guess that a majority of Celtics fans view Danny Ainge‘s decision to bow out of the Posey bidding as a bad one, possibly the worst choice Ainge has made since taking over the C’s basketball operations earlier this decade. Ainge committed to offering Posey only a three-year deal worth the mid-level exception; when New Orleans tacked on a fourth season, Ainge wouldn’t match, and we all wondered whether it was really worth losing a key cog in a championship team over one year and 6 million measly dollars. 

A year later, it’s time to ask: Does the signing of Rasheed Wallace (and, to a lesser extent, Marquis Daniels) change your perception of Ainge’s decision on Posey? I think it should. Because right now, for this team, I’d rather have Rasheed Wallace than James Posey, and the C’s would not have had the mid-level free to use on Wallace had they reserved it for Posey. 

(Side note for collective bargaining agreement fans: If I’m reading the CBA right, the C’s did have the right to go over the cap to sign Posey without using their mid-level, but since they did not have Bird Rights on Posey, they could only offer a 20 percent raise on Posey’s 2008 salary plus future 8 percent raises–less than other teams could offer with their mid-level. So the C’s would have had to use their mid-level to sign Posey, even though he was technically their own free agent. End side note). 

Let’s put aside for a second that Posey is 32, coming off his worst statistical season since 2006 last year and fits the profile of a type of player who tends to decline quickly in this early- and mid-30s, according to a piece John Hollinger wrote last year criticizing the Hornets’s decision to sign Posey. With Kevin Garnett’s knee a potential problem for the rest of his career, the Celtics need a Wallace-type more than they need a Posey-type, and that’s even before considering that Marquis Daniels can at least approximate Posey’s unique value to the team (if not his three-point shooting). 

Ainge took a one-season gamble in 2008, and it (sort of) failed. He believed, correctly, that it would be unwise to tie up the team’s mid-level exception (its only real source of financial flexibility) in an aging perimeter player, even if that stance placed a larger burden on Tony Allen. If the team couldn’t find a better wing player than Allen, then it would be up to Allen to assume the role of Paul Pierce’s main back-up and ace defensive specialist. If he couldn’t step up, perhaps increased production from Big Baby, Leon Powe, Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo could keep the team at a championship level.

It was certainly a gamble. But you know what? It might have worked had Kevin Garnett stayed healthy. He didn’t, and with a knee that is likely in the early stages of an arthritic condition, the Celtics need to be very careful with KG going forward. Yes, Wallace is older than Posey, and, yes, he also put up some of the worst numbers of his career last season. But for this team, right now, I’d rather have an aging and declining Wallace than an aging and declining Posey. Especially with Daniels on board. » More: The Posey Decision: One Year Later

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Posted in Commentary, Features, History

Bobby Brown: The Celts Prerogative?

July 20th, 2009

According to Hoopshype.com and The Star Tribune, PG Bobby Brown of the Minnesota Timberwolves will either be bought out or traded before the season starts:

“Bobby Brown’s dwindling playing time as the week wore on suggests he won’t be on the roster by opening night, either by being packaged in some kind of trade or simply have the year remaining on his contract bought out.”

Should the Celtics consider inviting him to training camp?

Some things to consider:

  • He’s younger than Lester Hudson
  • He’s not as injury prone as Tyronn Lue
  • He averaged 5.5 pts and 1.7 ast per game
  • He’s a 90% FT shooter and 35% Three Point Shooter
  • He’s cheap ($736,420, or a new/ cheaper deal)
  • He’s still got good potential.
  • He’s not a great defender and gets out-played on the defensive end according to 82games.com

Kevin Arnovitz’s Half-way Summer League Assessment:

“Bobby Brown (MIN): Sorry to break fellow Titan Marc Stein’s heart, but for a team that just drafted two rookie PGs, Brown hoped to show this week that he could be part of the Timberwolves’ backcourt rotation. That’s looking unlikely. He’s shooting 35.7 percent from the field, and not giving the ‘Wolves much else.”

Now that the T’wolves are stacked at PG, they don’t have a use for Brown.  Do the Celtics?

Definitely a score-first point guard with good athleticism.  Sounds a lot like Lester Hudson and if we can’t get Lester Hudson due to injury, we might want to consider his younger back up.

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Posted in Annoucements, Offseason

Trying to find a sign and trade with Indy

July 19th, 2009

act_marquis_danielsIt has been widely reported that swingman Marquis Daniels has committed to the Celtics for this upcoming season. Zach Lowe had a great breakdown on the newest piece of Danny Ainge’s bench last week. In the meantime however, there remains plenty of loose ends to be tied up before a deal is finalized for the former Pacer.

First and foremost is Ainge figuring out how exactly he will be getting Daniels to Boston. The C’s are limited to offering only the 1.9 million dollar biannual exception to the unrestricted free agent. That figure would be a major paycut from Daniels’ salary last season of nearly 7 million dollars.

While Daniels’ agent likely knew a big pay cut would be in order in free agency, there is no doubt he would expect to do better than 2 million/year for Daniels if he could help it. The Celtics for a change are on the same page with the swingman about trying to give him a bit more money.

This isn’t necessarily because they want to, or because they think he deserves it, but more so because they want to save the option of using the biannual exception for later this year or next year if possible.

In addition to saving the exception for a later date, the C’s ownership would likely be thrilled if Danny Ainge free up some money and clear out some dead weight (Tony Allen), or an overpaid backup (Brian Scalabrine) in a deal for Daniels.

If a deal were to be worked out, the Pacers would likely sign Daniels to a deal at around 2.5 million-4 million a year and turn around and ship him to Boston for a combination of TA, Scalabrine, Bill Walker, Gabe Pruitt, or J.R. Giddens. ESPN’s Chad Ford also tweeted last week that Walker, Pruitt and TA were names being floated in trade talks.

I list these guys only because I believe these are the only pieces I believe Ainge would be willing to deal for Daniels since they would not be essential parts of the team’s rotation plans next year. In addition, Allen and Scal’s salaries would match up quite nicely with Daniels, making a swap convenient for the C’s.

With that said, it seems simple enough: Deal either TA or Scal with a combination of the young guys to Indy for Daniels and we have a done deal. Problem solved right? Not so fast if you are the Pacers.

While either of those deals would make all the sense in the world for the Celtics, I’m not so sure it would make sense from an Indiana perspective. Thus I started asking some questions. If Indy made a deal for TA or Scal, could those guys be helpful contributors or would they be essentially dealing for an expiring contract? And would it make sense for them to do that and take on that additional salary, even if it’s only for one year? I decided to take a closer look at the team’s roster and salary situation to try to answer those questions after the jump. » More: Trying to find a sign and trade with Indy

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Posted in Features, Offseason