Now that most of the chips of fallen and the league has estimated the 2010-11 salary cap at somewhere between $50 million and $54 million (if you believe that’s not a negotiating ploy), we can begin sorting out which teams will have enough cap space after next season to offer Rajon Rondo a realistic free agent deal. In doing this, I assumed that Rondo will have another very good season in 2010, and that he’ll be looking for approximately $10 million per season to bolt the C’s. (Remember, Boston will be able to offer him more than anyone else under the league’s collective bargaining rules, and they’ll be able to match any offer another team makes).
THE QUICK, ONE-SENTENCE CONCLUSION: The Celtics have very little competition for Rondo, as most of the small number of teams with the cap space to sign him have entrenched point guards or other priorities. Still, there are a few teams out there to worry about.
I assumed a cap on the high side of the league’s early estimates (about $54 million) and eliminated any team who was already within about $8 million or $10 million of that number. I also eliminated teams whose listed cap figures for 2011 are a bit unrealistic. Portland, for instance, has about $19 committed for 2011, but that doesn’t include extensions for Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge or Travis Outlaw‘s $8 million cap hold.
In general, I also assumed any low-level player with an option is going to exercise it, and that any team with an option on a mediocre/low-level player will renounce that player completely.
Note: All salary info taken from DraftExpress, Sham Sports and news reports of recent signings.
HERE ARE THE TEAMS LEFT STANDING:
• Chicago: The Bulls have about $35 million or so committed to their 2011 roster, assuming they renounce their rights to Brad Miller, Jerome James and Tim Thomas–and I think that’s a safe assumption. To stick at this figure, though, they’ll also have to renounce Ty Thomas instead of tendering him a $6.3 million qualifying offer.
Of course, the Bulls already have a young point guard, don’t they? They’ve also got ambitions of getting in on the Wade-Bosh bidding.
• Cleveland: The Cavs will have about $24 million or so committed in 2011, assuming they renounce both Z-man and the Big Second Banana and find a taker for Delonte West‘s partially unguaranteed $4.5 million deal. How likely is that combination of three things? Ask John Krolik or Brian Windhurst.
Of course, Cleveland’s focus after next season is probably not going to be on Rajon Rondo.
• Los Angeles Clippers: The Clips helped themselves immensely by getting rid of Zach Randolph ($17.3 million in 2011) in exchange for Quentin Richardson‘s expiring deal. Les Clips have about $34 million committed in 2011, assuming they renounce Marcus Camby and Richardson and exercise options on Eric Gordon and Al Thorton (all basically no-brainers).
Again, though, the Clippers have an entrenched point guard in Baron Davis. If they manage to get rid of him, they could become serious Rondo players.
• Atlanta: The Hawks are at the very edge of our salary range here, as they’ll be up to at least $42 million once you figure in the Mike Bibby and Zaza Pachulia extensions plus rookie deals for their draft picks. They’d also have to renounce Joe Johnson to get to $42 million; if they don’t, his cap hold puts them well over the limit.
• Miami: Probably the most dangerous team on this list. The Heat have literally nothing committed to 2011 beyond Dwyane Wade, who may or may not opt out of his $17 million-plus deal for that season. Other than that, it’s all team options (only two of which they are certain to pick up–Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers) and James Jones‘s unguaranteed deal. Of course, this could all change if Pat Riley caves and takes on some ill-advised long-term contract. But if the Heat don’t sign Wade, Chris Bosh or LeBron James (or perhaps even if they do sign one of them), they could come after Rondo hard.
• New York: Another strong candidate if the premier 2010 free agents spurn them. The Knicks have about $18.2 million committed to Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries (hi, Isiah!), plus $5.5 million in team options for Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. Toss in a couple of rookie deals and assume they re-sign either David Lee or Nate Robinson (but not both), and we’re approaching $35 million (especially if they choose Lee over Robinson). If they grab Robinson, too, the Knicks may price themselves out of the LeBron-Wade-Bosh derby and have to settle for someone on the next tier…like Rondo.
A few more teams, after the jump. » More: How Big Is The Market for Rondo?
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Welcome the Grand Marquis; the TA Experiment Has Failed
July 17th, 2009How the deal happens makes a big difference.
If it’s a straight up free agency signing:
a) the C’s will save a bit of money, since the point of doing a sign-and-trade would be to appease Daniels’ desire for a salary higher than the bi-annual;
b) the C’s will lose the right to use their bi-annual exception after next season;
c) the roster will be absolutely jammed. Adding Daniels without subtracting another player would give the C’s 12 players on guaranteed deals for 2010, leaving only three spots on the in-season roster. Right now, those spots seem slated to go to Lester Hudson, Gabe Pruitt and Glen Davis.
Are you ready to entrust back-up point guard duties to Pruitt, Hudson, Eddie House and (possibly) Daniels?
In any case, who is Marquis Daniels? And if he shoots jumpers as poorly as Tony Allen (and he does), what is the point in signing him?
Let’s give the first word to Indy Cornrows’ season review of Daniels:
Marquis Daniels has a game that is often overlooked yet should be savored for his ability to contribute in many ways. He does the little things that aren’t quantified for the masses but force a little half-smile to burst from the corner of Jim O’Brien’s mouth. Things like deflecting the ball on defense (a stat the coaching staff does track and value). Things like knifing into the lane pulling up where no anticipates he should, and dropping in a bucket. The ball appears to hit the rim like a medicine ball and drop.
Sounds good, right? Other good things: Daniels is 6’6” and has alternated between playing the two and the three on short notice in his career. So we’ve got our much-needed back-up to the Captain.
In 2008, Daniels played almost all of his minutes at shooting guard and none at small forward, according to 82games. Last season, he played the majority of minutes at small forward, and he averaged a career-best 13.6 points per game while posting the highest rebounding rate of his career and the lowest turnover rate since his rookie season in Dallas, according to Basketball Reference.
That turnover rate hints at the main difference between Marquis Daniels and Tony Allen, two players who appear very similar when you glance at shooting percentages, accuracy on jump shots and PER. Dig a little deeper (and watch a lot of games), and you find that one is simply a more polished player than the other. » More: Welcome the Grand Marquis; the TA Experiment Has Failed
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