Hollinger’s Player Projections–PER Declines All Around!
Posted by Zach Lowe on Oct 5, 2009
John Hollinger’s individual player projections are in, and ESPN’s resident stat genius sees all but two Celtics having worse years in terms of straight PER this season than in 2009. It’s a sound conclusion, given the age of the team. (The only improvers: Glen Davis and Rajon Rondo).
Forthwith, here are some key nuggets from his player profiles, all of which are worth your time.
The Captain:
His offensive game is in steady, inexorable decline, yet no one seems to have noticed. Last season was the third straight in which he suffered a two-point PER decline. Compared to three seasons ago, he’s lost 5.5 points, one rebound and one assist per 40 minutes — without any corresponding increase in efficiency.
My thoughts: This is not worth worrying about. Three seasons ago—2007, if you’re counting—Pierce and Al Jefferson had to do pretty much everything offensively for Boston, and Big Al wasn’t exactly the 25 points per game scorer he is now.
Last season featured an alarming increase in the proportion of his shots that weren’t at the basket: 43 percent of his shots were 2s not at the basket, compared to 33 percent a season earlier. He continues to shoot these shots phenomenally well, converting 44.4 percent of them (the league average is 39.9), but the reduced attempts at the rim aren’t doing his two-point shooting percentage any favors.
My thoughts: This is a healthy adaptation, not dissimilar from one MJ made as he aged (and no, I’m not comparing the two players in terms of overall awesomeness. Pierce is obviously better). Should his shooting percentage on mid-range jumpers drop, then we can be concerned. Pierce isn’t averaging nearly 10 free throw attempts per 36 minutes as he was pre-2008, but he’s still up around seven—a very solid figure.
Kevin Garnett:
Pre-injury, Garnett shot a sterling 67.6 percent in the immediate basket area and 44.1 percent on long 2s, showing that he remains one of the best inside-outside threats in the game. He’s no longer a threat to draw fouls, however. Garnett earned a piddling 2.3 free throw attempts per game, barely a third of what he achieved two seasons ago and less than half his total from the previous season.
My thoughts: I’ve written before about the sharp drop in KG’s free throw attempts. Before coming to Boston, he was regularly at 6 or 7 FTAs/game. In 2008, that dropped to 4.7—a solid number, and a not-catastrophic drop one would expect upon moving from a crap show like Minnesota circa 2007 (sorry, Mr. McHale) to a loaded C’s team. Last year’s drop is more disconcerting, though it’s so big it almost has to be intentional. Another adaptation?
Some more of Hollinger’s statistical observations, after the jump.
Rasheed Wallace:
Wallace took only 90 shots in the immediate basket area the entire season. They represented just 12.5 percent of his total shots, barely half the total of a season earlier. On the flip side, nearly half of Wallace’s attempts were 3-pointers and his free-throw attempts withered to just 1.5 per game. Only five power forwards averaged fewer free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt.
Positioned beyond the arc most of the time, Wallace abandoned any pretense of going for offensive rebounds. He grabbed just 3.1 percent of his team’s misses, placing him 62nd out of the league’s 65 power forwards.
My thoughts: Nothing new. We covered all of this here before the Wallace signing. The C’s were only 18th in offensive rebounding rate during their title season, and though they jumped to 8th last season, they are not banking on being elite in this category. ‘Sheed is here to defend and stretch the floor. The rest is gravy.
Brian Scalabrine:
His 6.0 rebound rate was bested by all three of Boston’s point guards, and it goes without saying that it ranked dead last among power forwards. He also averaged better than a foul every seven minutes, which was the sixth-most at his position.
My thoughts: Ouch.
Although he’s a singularly awful rebounder, Scalabrine is a very good team defender who understands how to help on the weak side and willingly takes charges.
My thoughts: Yay Scal!!
Glen Davis
Despite the overall positive season, Davis had two big negative markers. First, he fouled way too much, collecting a personal every 7.1 minutes. Second, his rebound rate remained pedestrian for a power forward: He ranked 50th out of 65 players at his position.
My thoughts: We’ve covered Big Baby’s problems on the glass before, but it’s worth nothing that he’s actually a decent offensive rebounder. He struggles on the defensive glass, which isn’t a huge problem when Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Kendrick Perkins—three of the best defensive rebounders in the league—are on Baby’s team.
The fouling will be less of a concern this season, since he’s no longer starting.
Kendrick Perkins:
Even Perkins’ one weakness was something of a strength. He accumulated the worst turnover rate in basketball last season, giving it away on 20.4 percent of the possessions he used.
Nearly a third of Perkins’ turnovers were offensive fouls — he was second only to Howard in that category with 51 — and of those, nearly all of them were illegal screens.
My thoughts: I’m convinced there is a league conspiracy against Kendrick Perkins regarding his alleged use of illegal screens that are somehow more illegal than the illegal screens dozens of other big men use illegally. Moving on.
Rajon Rondo:
A weird trend lurks in his shot data, however. Rondo shot 9-of-13 on 3-pointers from the left wing and just 6-for-35 from other spots. It’s probably a fluke, but it’s possible he found a spot where he’s comfortable taking and making long-range shots.
My thoughts: This is somehow fascinating and irrelevant at the same time, I think. Lots of stats are like this. Just pray Rajon can knock down an 18-footers at a 45 percent clip this season.
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