Archive for November, 2009

A Look at Ray Allen’s Shooting Woes

November 30th, 2009

AP

The Celtics are more than 20 percent into this year’s campaign and needless to say, they have had their fair share of problems despite their 13-4 record. Whether it’s Rasheed’s outside shooting, Kevin Garnett’s physical problems, or the team looking vulnerable at times defensively, there have been many things for Boston fans to gripe about.

For the time being, the Celtics have appeared to right the ship, building a four game winning streak while being to look like the C’s of old on both ends of the floor. However with all these improvements, there has been one vital part of the team’s offense that has regressed dramatically in the early stages of this year. Perhaps even more surprisingly, no one has been talking about it. The problem you ask? Ray Allen’s outside shooting.

Before we go any further, let’s take a look at the numbers. Despite the limited sample size, these should help us dig into the question of whether Ray’s shooting woes are merely a slump or an early indicator of the aging shooting guard falling off a cliff that Zach Lowe warned us about last year.

2009-10 Shooting Statistics for Ray Allen (17 games)

46.4% FG Percentage
30.1% 3pt Percentage
56.2 % True Shooting Percentage
51.7 % eFG Percentage
4.4 3 point attempts per game
45% FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers (16-23 feet)

Let’s compare these to Allen’s numbers from last year, along with some career percentages.

FG Percentages: 48% (2008) 44.8% (career)
3 pt Percentage: 40.9% (2008) 39.7% (career)
True Shooting Percentage: 62.4% (2008 2nd in league) 57.4% (career)
eFG Percentage: 57.5% (2008 5th in league) 52.3% (career)
3 point attempts per game: 6.1 (2008) 5.9 (career)
FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers: 49% (2008)

Statistics complied from 82games, Basketball-Reference, and HoopData.

So based on those numbers, let’s take a closer glimpse to see what conclusions, if any, we can draw on Allen’s struggles thus far this year. » More: A Look at Ray Allen’s Shooting Woes

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Posted in Commentary, Features

Rajon Shoots Like a Center

November 30th, 2009

Must-read link from the holiday weekend: Hoopdata’s graph-infused look at which types of shots players at particular positions are most likely to shoot. The site—which is becoming a must-visit for hoops geeks—breaks shots down into five categories: 1) at the rim; 2) shots between the rim and 10 feet; 3) shots from 10 feet to 15 feet out; 4) long-distance twos; and 5) three-pointers.

The results aren’t shocking, but there are a ton of interesting tidbits there. Good read the post.

The site then examines some outliers—guys whose shot selection is way off from the “normal” shot distribution at their position. And guess what? Rajon Rondo is such an outlier. In fact, his shot distance distribution almost exactly matches that of a typical center. Rondo: The Shaq of Point Guards.

Here’s Hoopdata’s blurb:

So much for all those jump shots Rajon Rondo took in the offseason. Rondo is still the same point guard looking to attack the rim rather than settle for the open jump shot. If anything, his jumper has gotten worse as his field goal percentage on 16 – 23 foot shots has plummeted from 40 percent last year to 23 percent. He still has plenty of time to work things out things out but one has to wonder if Rondo will ever develop the outside game. He certainly doesn’t need it to be successful. Just ask Tony Parker.

Celtics fans watch Rondo’s jumper with the intensity of teenagers watching snowy porn, so finding out that Rajon’s shot chart is Shaq-like isn’t surprising. I’d take issue with Hoopdata on one thing: Tony Parker was indeed a successful player back when his jump shot was below average, but he jumped to another level when he became a dependable outside shooter. And his doing so allowed him to assume a larger role in the Spurs offense right at the time that Duncan needed someone to take some of that responsibility.

The C’s Big Three could use something similar.

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Posted in Commentary, Notebook

You Might Want to Guard KG: C’s 92, Heat 85

November 29th, 2009

Photo: AP

Pace: 87 possessions (ultra-slow)

Offensive Efficiency: 105.7 points/100 possessions (league average)

Defensive Efficiency: 97.7 points allowed/100 possessions (league best)

Some bullets before Brian Robb posts his full recap:

• Let’s start where we should start: KG’s performance. One miss in 12 attempts, 24 points in 34:40 of playing time (his second-highest minutes total of the season) and credible defense on Michael Beasley. And that’s saying something, since Beasley almost single-handedly won this game by scoring 11 points over the first 4:00 of the 4th quarter with KG on the bench.

If there’s one thing to store away for the next time these two play, it’s this: Rasheed Wallace cannot guard Michael Beasley, and asking him to do so is defensive suicide.

• Back to Garnett: KG made 11 baskets tonight; two were put-backs after offensive rebounds. Of the remaining nine, the C’s assisted on seven, though that number could easily have been eight had the scoring crew credited Pierce with an assist on KG’s final jumper (the one that made it 91-85 with 38 seconds left). KG scored just once on any sort of isolation—a post-up jump hook.

Late in his career, Garnett has learned to move without the ball wonderfully and function as the dump-off man on screen/rolls.

• For the first time this season, it seemed like Rajon Rondo was playing with the destructive confidence he showed during the Chicago series last season. I’m thinking specifically of the last 5:39 of the 2nd quarter, when the C’s outscored the Heat 17-7 and Rondo did just about everything. He started the run with a three (his second of the season) to tie the game at 41-41, then created a put-back chance for KG by driving the lane and drawing the defense before missing a lay-in.

And then something very interesting happened on the next Boston possession. After a series of switches, Dwyane Wade was caught guarding Perk on the right block. Perk got the ball with Wade on his back and surveyed the defense. We all thought the same thing: Back Wade down and score. But there was Rondo, left uncovered at the top of the key, clapping and yelling for Perkins to pass him the ball. Rondo wanted to score. He received the ball and immediately tossed up a gorgeous tear drop.

There was no hesitation, no looking around and anticipating the help. Rondo took the ball and scored.

The next five C’s possessions went like this: » More: You Might Want to Guard KG: C’s 92, Heat 85

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Posted in Game Recaps

Game#17/82: C’s (12-4) @ Heat (9-6)

November 29th, 2009

Offensive Efficiency:

Boston: 109.2 points/100 possessions (7th)

Miami: 105.5 points/100 possessions (17th)

Defensive Efficiency:

Boston: 99.8 points allowed/100 possessions (2nd)

Miami: 104.6 points allowed/100 possessions (12th)

Thumbnail: The C’s face a solid home team to start a stretch in which they play six of seven games on the road.

Probable Miami starters: Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Jermaine O’Neal, Mario Chalmers, James Jones/Quentin Richardson

WHAT THE HEAT DO WELL

*Have Dwyane Wade

*Take care of the ball. The Wade-era Heat are consistently among the best teams in the NBA at avoiding turnovers. This isn’t just a function of their ultra-slow pace of play; their turnovers-per-possession are always very, very low. They rank 10th in that category this season, which represents a pretty significant drop for them; the Heat ranked 4th last season. Still—this game is a fun clash between a team that values the basketball (Miami) and the team that forces turnovers more often than anyone else in the league (Boston).

* Getting to the line. Only seven teams get there more often, per shot attempt, than Miami. I think we all know why this is—Dwyane Wade and his super-fantastic 11 foul shots per game. The C’s held the league’s other 10-plus free throw attempts per game guy (Chris Bosh) to just two FTAs on Friday. Can they do the same to Wade?

The defensive assignment will go (mostly) to Ray Allen—assuming Ray plays, given his son’s health—though obviously the C’s will help aggressively on screen/rolls in order to force Wade away from the hoop. They may even use a big man to trap Wade and force him to swing the ball to someone else.

WHAT THE HEAT DO POORLY

* Stastically, almost nothing. The Heat rank between #8 and #22 in all eight Four Factors categories (four on offense, four on defense). They’re #17 in three-point accuracy on offense and #11 on defense.

The Heat are an interesting contrast with teams that win because they commit themselves to greatness in a few categories and accept that they will be mediocre or even toward the bottom of the league in other Four Factors categories (This group of teams would include this year’s Celtics, the Spurs of recent vintage and the Suns of the Mike D’Antoni era). Again, in the NBA, there are lots of way to succeed.

* Win at home. The Heat are just 6-4 in Miami so far this year, but they were among 15 teams that won at least two-thirds (.667) of their home games last season. Beating such a team in their place is as tough a win to earn as there is in the NBA.

PLAYER WHO MAKES ME WORRY

* Umm…Wade. And he’ s due. » More: Game#17/82: C’s (12-4) @ Heat (9-6)

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Posted in Previews

Ainge Sounds Off

November 29th, 2009

When the GM talks openly about the early-season performance of his team—and mentions the ‘86 Celtics in any context—the story gets pulled out of the notebook post and excerpted on its own. Ainge spoke to the Herald, and while he’s not exactly furious, the GM is clearly not happy with the team’s early play. The main problem: The team, according to Ainge, is playing with a looser-than-usual focus, banking on its veteran know-how and talent level to carry it through games that are close at the end. In other words: They are playing the Flip the Switch (ugh) game.

Here’s the most relevant excerpt from Danny:

“You can’t sit around and wait,” he said. “To be honest, I don’t see a lot of similarities between the ’86 team and this one.

“I don’t buy into those excuses,” Ainge said of the long-term argument. “The bottom line is that we’re a better team than (how) we’re playing. We’re just not showing it. We’re playing well some times, and not well at others. (The players) just need to focus like the coaches focus.

“If we’re not paying attention to that, and we’re thinking that we’re so good, then we’re in trouble. I see a difference in how we play when we have our backs to the wall, so you can tell that we have what we need, but it has to be more than that.”

And:

“It’s not just effort and discipline. You have to focus on the little things in practice. You certainly can’t wait until January or February.”

But what does Danny mean by “the little things”? Boxing out? Deflecting passes? It’s hard to tell, and he doesn’t really elaborate. But Doc Rivers does, and he repeats something we’ve heard him say at least two other times so far this season: The C’s are playing undisciplined basketball, occasionally breaking plays on offense and disobeying orders on defense.

Per the same Herald story:

“But you can’t play the game in random, and that’s what we’re doing at times, on the defensive end, too. (Orlando’s) first nine points the other night were off of that, and I was like, ‘(Expletive), we just went through a walkthrough.’ We actually trapped Dwight Howard once, and we never trap Dwight Howard. It’s not like anyone is doing it to hurt your team. That’s just the IQ that’s been activated, but it’s not the time.”

This is obviously something that bears close, close monitoring. I try and pay close attention in games to find instances in which the C’s appear to break plays, but I’m sure I miss a bunch of examples.

Readers: If you notice something, drop us a line.

Enjoy the waning moments of your Thanksgiving weekend. We’ll have the Heat game covered here later.

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Posted in Lazy weekend post, Notebook

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