Rondo’s Extension: Were The C’s smart to cave to Rondo’s demands?

AP

First off, I just want to say I was on record believing an extension would not get done between the parties before the season started. I even advocated for the C’s to take the wait and see approach with Rondo’s extension last month.

 Throughout this process, there was never really any doubt in my mind Rondo would be a Boston Celtic for a very long time, it was just a matter of when it would be finalized. I believed a deal being reached after this year was the most likely scenario for a few reasons.

Danny Ainge had reportedly offered an average of 9 million a year for 5 years while Rondo was looking for 11-12 million a year over the same time span. Clearly it looked like some common gorund could be found with those numbers, but with a down economy, and knowing Rondo would have entered next offseason as a restricted free agent,  the Celtics looked to be holding all the cards during the extension talks…..or so it appeared.

That said, there was little incentive for either side to give in any ground in negotiations at first glance. As the regular season arrived however, a few developments became clear with Rondo, making the decision for Celtics to play hardball with Rondo make less sense. Those realities increased the likelihood that this deal would finally get done by today’s deadline. A look at these factors, after the jump:

First, Rondo’s agent Bill Duffy unsurprisingly showed no willingness to make any concessions in a deal. He made it perfectly clear Rondo would be willing to play out the final year of his contract and test the free agent waters.

This was a calculated risk but a smart one from Duffy’s point of view, as barring the usual disclaimers (unforeseen injuries, etc.) Rondo’s dollar value was much more likely to go up than go down based on his play this year. An extra year of maturation along with being surrounded by a healthy motivated group of veterans made the odds stack heavily in Rondo’s favor for another strong campaign.

Rondo also appeared to make major strides as far as the character and motivation issues Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge had called him out about during the offseason. A message had been sent by the team at the time to the young point guard and in the interim, it appears Rondo has addressed any major issues sufficently that Danny and company would have reservations about.

 Examples of this include Rondo saying all the right things throughout training camp and preseason regarding his teammates and any contract extension talks. He has also shown great maturity both on and off the floor. Those potential red flags hanging around the 4th year guards’ demeanor appear to have vanished.

Without those underlying concerns about Rondo’s character, there had to be a lot less trepidation about committing near max money to Rondo for the foreseeable future in the Celtics orgainization. This development combined with some phenomenal play through the first week of this season, with Rondo averaging 6.5 points, 5 boards, 2.5 steals and nearly 12 assists a game made it evident the tide were turning for Rondo in these negotiations.

Instead of potentially saving a million dollars or two a year by holding to their 9 million per year offer, the odds were gaining ground that the C’s would in fact cost themselves the same amount per year with the wait and see approach.

Zach Lowe broke down Rondo’s potential suitors last month and while they may not have as many teams pursuing Rondo as initially anticipated, the Knicks and Heat sure had a lot of money to spend on him. At only 23 years old and oozing with untapped potential, the likelihood of either of these teams throwing a max level extension, or something just shy of that, say 12-13 million/year appeared to be growing by the day.

The Celtics, in all probability would have matched that kind of offer, if Rondo delivered another superb season, given the lack of viable alternatives at point guard. Danny Ainge though would have been kicking himself for not locking up Rondo for 11 million/year when he had the chance, especially if he thought Rondo was worth close to that much all along. In a scale of pay for free agent point guards, 11 million/year comes in right at the bottom of the top tier of point guards. A very fair number, if not a little high given the current NBA economic conditions.

So instead of Danny holding steadfast with his offer, at the potential risk of Rondo’s price being driven up as well as possibility creating some kind of riff between Rondo and the organization, Ainge caved to Rondo’s demands and made the safe play by taking the deal.

At the end of the day, it was the inevitable play since The Celtics would be paying up that much either now or after the season ended. With the risk involved of waiting until next offseason outweighing any reward of holding out by the end of the negotiation process, Danny’s move to give in to Rondo’s demands in all likelihood was the right one to make.

Now Celtics fans can breath easier, knowing there will be no possible money distractions for Rondo throughout this year. The Celtics may have saved themselves an extra couple million dollars for the next few years by getting the deal done now. This dough could easily go to helping to bring back Ray Allen for another year or two and further expanding the team’s window as a Championship contender.

Curious to hear everyone’s else take on this though. Did Ainge make the right move in caving to Rondo’s demands? Would have Rondo been offered a max contract this offseason? Also, check back with Celtics Hub for a full analysis of how Rondo’s extension affects the team’s salary cap situation going forward into next year and beyond.

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