Game #5/82: C’s (4-0) @ Sixers (2-1)

Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 3, 2009 39910 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F11%2F03%2Fgame-582-celtics-4-0-sixers-2-1%2FGame+%235%2F82%3A+C%27s+%284-0%29+%40+Sixers+%282-1%292009-11-03+20%3A18%3A20Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D3991

Offensive Efficiency

Boston: 111.7 points/100 possessions (9th);

Philadelphia: 115.5 points/100 (4th)

Defensive Efficiency

Boston: 90.3 points allowed/100 possessions (1st)

Philly: 111.1 points/100 (22nd)

Probable 76ers starters:

Louis Williams, Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Thaddeus Young

WHAT THE 76ERS DO WELL/DID WELL LAST YEAR

• Force turnovers: Only the Bucks and Jazz forced turnovers more often than the Sixers last season, and that skill helped Philly rank as an above-average defensive team despite middling stats in just about every other defensive category. The forced turnovers lead to transition opportunities, which were really the only sort of opportunities the Sixers converted at a high rate last season. (They look so good on fast breaks that everyone thinks they were a fast-breaking team. They weren’t; they ranked 20th in pace factor, meaning just 10 teams played at a slower pace, according to Basketball Reference.)

They haven’t been as prolific so far this season, but they haven’t had the benefit yet of playing the C’s—among the NBA’s most turnover prone clubs in the New Big Three era. The C’s coughed it up 60 times in four games against Philly last season.

• Pound the Offensive Glass

The Sixers were the second-best offensive rebounding team in the league last season, but they traded their best offensive rebounder (Reggie Evans) for literally the worst rebounding forward in the entire league (Jason Kapono). After three games, the Sixers rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage, a measure of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabs. Prediction: Next time the C’s play Philly, offensive rebounding will not be in the “things Philly does well” category.

WHAT THE SIXERS DO POORLY/DID POORLY LAST SEASON

•Shoot threes: The Sixers shot 31.8 percent from three last season. It is hard to exaggerate how terrible that is. That marked rank last in the league, a healthy margin behind the next-worst teams—the putrid Wizards (33.0 percent) and Thunder (34.6 percent). Only the Thunder attempted fewer treys. This was the main reason behind the Evans-Kapono swap, and Kapono has indeed hit 5-of-10 from deep in three games this season. The Sixers rank in the middle of the pack in three-point shooting so far, but the fact remains: Shut down Kapono, and the team can’t score from outside.

Still—this should be a better offensive club once they learn coach Eddie Jordan’s Princeton-style system. It’s working so far, as Philly has put up very good offensive numbers against one good defensive team (Milwaukee), one great one (Orlando) and the Knicks. Ahem.

• Protect the defensive glass: Philly ranked 26th in defensive rebounding last year, odd for a team that rebounded so well on the other end. A full season of Elton Brand at the four instead of Thaddeus Young (now at the three) figures to help quite a bit here, despite the loss of Evans.

We talk match-ups, after the jump.

• PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY:

*Andre Iguodala/Thad Young: Iggy is the best player on the team, but it’s not really him I’m worried about. It’s the Young-Iggy combination. Ray Allen has to guard one of these guys, meaning he either guards the Sixers best player and the guy who initiates the offense (Iggy) or a 6’8” tweener forward (Young).

* Marreese Speights: It’s mostly spelling his name that has me worried. That, and the fact that he’s currently second in the entire NBA in PER and averaging 17-7 in 24 minutes per game. Yowza. He’s strong, quick and active, and he may be the most complete big man the C’s have faced so far this season (sorry, Shaq). If it’s not Speights, it’s Brand. It will be interesting to watch KG face a true low-post banger in Elton Brand, assuming Perk guards Dalembert.

• PLAYER/S WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY

* Willie Green, Royal Ivey and Rodney Carney: Not a good bench nucleus.

* Lou Williams: The Sixers were about seven points worse defensively per 100 possessions with him on the floor last season, according to 82games. He will spend some time guarding Rajon Rondo. Unless Rajon celebrated that new deal hard last night, this could get ugly or Lou-Dub.

• PREDICTION: The Sixers force enough turnovers to hang in, but the C’s prevail behind a stingy-as-always D. 98-89, Boston.