Game#6/82: C’s (5-0) @ Wolves (1-3)

Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 4, 2009 40312 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F11%2F04%2Fgame682-cs-5-0-wolves-1-3%2FGame%236%2F82%3A+C%27s+%285-0%29+%40+Wolves+%281-3%292009-11-04+20%3A12%3A00Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D4031

Off. Efficiency:

Boston: 112.7 points/100 possesions (6th)

Minny: 100.9 points/100 (22nd)

Def. Efficiency:

Boston: 88.7 points allowed/100 possesions (1st)

Minny: 107.7 points allowed/100 (18th)

Probable Minny starters:

Al Jefferson, Damien Wilkens/Oleskey Pecherov, Corey Brewer, Jonny Flynn, Ryan Gomes

WHAT THE WOLVES DO WELL/DID WELL LAST SEASON

• Umm…well…let’s see…Al Jefferson is good. Does that count? Well, they were a fairly solid (read: average) offensive rebounding team last season (14th overall in offensive rebounding percentage) and have been excellent in that category (#3 overall) through four whopping games this year. Can they keep that up without Kevin Love?

• They’ve been coming out ahead in turnover differential in the early going. Only two teams have turned the ball over on a lower percentage of their possessions and only six have forced the other team to cough it up more often, according to Basketball Reference. That’s a big change from last season and a positive early sign for Kurt Rambis and his Triangle offense.

• They didn’t take many two-point jump shots last season, which is generally a good thing. Better to hoist them from three or work it inside, provided you can hit those sorts of shots…

WHAT THE WOLVES DO POORLY/DID POORLY LAST SEASON

• Everything else? Seriously, pick a stat and they were pretty bad at it last season. Three-point shooting percentage? 23rd. Field-goal percentage on inside shots? 27th. And this season, no team is getting to the line less often, as measured by the ratio of a team’s free throw attempts to field goal attempts (per Basketball Reference). Defending the three? Opponents shot 37.7 percent from deep last year (22nd in the NBA)  and they’ve hit 40 percent from three so far this year (19th in the league, according to Basketball Reference).

PLAYER OR MATCH-UP THAT WORRIES ME

• Ricky Rubio?

• Without Love around, the one and only answer is really Big Al. We know him well—the refined post game, the super-convincing pump fake, the underrated jumper, the hook shot. The guy is a menace down low, but he’s still working himself back into shape after knee surgery and some pre-season achilles tendon soreness. Perk and KG will likely split time on Big Al.

• Ramon Sessions, currently backing up rookie Jonny Flynn, could pose problems for Eddie House or Marquis Daniels if the match-ups dictate that one of those two guard Sessions. Ryan Hollins is active around the rim, and Corey Brewer may not be able to shoot, but he brings a much-improved all-around game this season. His line against the Clips Monday is representative: 6-of-21 shooting (barf) but 6 dimes, 5 steals and 4 boards.

• Ryan Gomes, another old friend, may be too quick and rangy with the jumper at the four spot for KG  but too big at 6’7” 245 for the Truth at the three.

PLAYER OR MATCH-UP THAT DOES NOT WORRY ME

• Ricky Rubio

• The rest of the roster

WHAT WE’D LIKE TO SEE FROM THE C’S TONIGHT

• More of the same, really. I mean, what else am I supposed to say about a team that is 5-0 with a scoring margin of more than 20 points per game in those wins? Avoiding turnovers would be nice, but we’ve been saying that for two seasons, so it may be time to just accept the reality that this team is going to cough the ball up a lot in most games.

• Schedule-wise, there are a couple of interesting quirks to this game. This is the 2nd of 18 back-to-backs the C’s will play this season, and the first road-road back-to-back of the year. Of those 18 back-to-backs—a relatively low number, by the way—15 will come (like this one) against teams that did not play the night before. That percentage—15 out of 18 back-to-backs against a rested team—is unusually high; teams on the second night of a back-to-back typically face an opponent in the same situation about half the time. Not so for the C’s this year. So they’re going to have to get used to winning games like this.

Fortunately, Doc got to rest the starters last night in Philly, so they should be fairly fresh tonight.

PREDICTION

Minny shouldn’t be able to hang with the C’s. That’s just the way it is. Boston wins 102-90 to move to 6-0.