Like Christmas Morning for a Hoops Geek
Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 9, 2009
I logged onto 82games.com over the weekend to look up something about last year’s Celtics, and there it was for the first time: The 82games.com stats for the first two weeks of the 2009-10 season!! I swear I was almost as excited for this as I was when my parents (or, “Santa”) got me my first bike—a sweet black Schwinn with yellow mags. Oh, yeah.
So I spent the next hour or two devouring all the 82games stats for the C’s first eight games to see if I noticed anything interesting, surprising or different from last year. Before I list some, let me say this: I know eight games is a small sample size, but it constitutes 10 percent of the regular season and we can learn things about a team in eight games. Consider these early statistical trends to watch:
• The top bench line-ups are killing it on offense.
House-Ray Allen-Williams-Sheed-Daniels has put up 124 points per 100 possessions in 34 minutes—the most minutes any line-up has played together other than the starters.
House-Pierce-Williams-Sheed-Daniels is scoring 108 points per 100 possessions, right at the team’s overall average.
This is a good early sign. The “four bench players plus Pierce” line-up last year struggled on offense, averaging about 104 points per 100 possessions in 145 minutes. For whatever reason, the same four back-ups (Leon Powe, Big Baby, House and Tony Allen) functioned better offensively with Ray Allen instead of Pierce. The same pattern is repeating itself this season, though, as I will stress over and over, it is very early.
• Sheed is turning into Steve Novak
That’s an exaggeration, obviously. Novak, the Clips sharp-shooter, has nothing resembling a two-point game and can’t play with his back to the basket like Sheed. Defensively, there is no comparison.
But 95 percent of Sheed’s 75 shot attempts this season have been jump shots, according to 82games.com. And though a bunch of those (maybe 15) are fadeaways from the post, that 95 percent figure is positively Novak-ian. (About 98 percent of Novak’s shots were jumpers last season). Sheed was jumper happy last season, when 89 percent of his shots were Js, but the trend has accelerated early this season.
Also, 50 of Sheed’s 75 shot attempts—67 percent—have been from deep. That is undeniably Novak-ian, as 72 percent of Novak’s 396 shots last year were threes. Last year, just 44 percent of Sheed’s attempts came from outside.
So Sheed has been more one-dimensional on offense than any of us expected. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? That’s still up for debate, I think.
• The “starters plus Sheed” line-up has struggled
It’s the third most-used line-up on the team so far (29 minutes played), and the early results are not encouraging—an offensive rating of 99 points/100 possessions and a defensive rating of 124 points allowed/100 possessions.
Again, it’s early. Just something to monitor.
• The interior defense is solid
The new 82games stats give us two early indicators that the interior defense looks good:
1) The team is forcing opponents to shoot more jumpers. So far this season, 72 percent of opponent shots have been Js, up from 67 percent last year. This could be heavily influenced by sample size; the C’s have only played eight of the other 29 teams, after all. But the C’s have played a few teams with very limited low post scoring (Charlotte, Chicago, New Orleans) and a few with guys who can score at the rim (Phoenix, Philly, Minnesota and Cleveland).
Five percent might not sound like much, but every possession matters.
2) Power forwards and centers are faring poorly against the C’s so far. Opposing power forwards have a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 11.5, centers of 14.0. Last year, power forwards and centers put up PERs of 16.1 and 15.8, respectively, against the Cs.
Again, small sample sizes. But the C’s have faced some elite low post players already—Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson, Brook Lopez, Elton Brand and Shaquille O’Neal (I know, I know). No, Hornets fans, Emeka Okafor doesn’t count.
• Daniels and Rondo are shooting the J a little better, or at least more often.
Daniels has an effective field-goal percentage (which adjust for three-pointers) of 47.5 percent on jumpers, up from 35.7 last season with the Pacers. Amazing what playing with good players and elite passers can do for you.
Rajon’s effective FG% on Js is the same as last season—about 40 percent—but he’s taking more jumpers, though the difference is small. About 48 percent of his attempts so far this season have been Js, up from 43 percent last year.
• KG is in a shooting slump
Garnett is hitting just 38.4 percent of his jump shots, down from 45 percent last season and 47 percent in the ’08 title year. Don’t worry about this one—he’s working his legs back into shape. The J will be fine.
• Rondo and Daniels are playing together more than expected
Five of the ten line-ups in which Marquis has appeared most have included Rondo, and those groups have played about 40 minutes together combined so far. Of those five groups, two have played the bulk of those 40 minutes, and those two have been sub-par offensively.
Small sample sizes, but something to watch—two shaky jump-shooters in ball-handling roles can make offense tough.
I should note that the two line-ups Daniel has played by far the most with (58 minutes combined) do not include Rondo. But Doc is clearly experimenting with different combinations early; Daniels hasn’t simply been a back-up point guard. This is good. Now is the time to experiment. Speaking of which…
KG is playing with a more diverse set of line-ups
As I’ve said before, KG has rarely appeared without both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen on the court at the same time. That has changed at least a little bit this year. A few of KG’s line-up combinations—including the third-most common combo with KG—include only one member of the big three.
It’s not much, but, again, there is some early experimenting going on. As it should be.
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