Game #10/82: C’s (8-1) vs. Hawks (6-2)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 13, 2009
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 109.9 points/100 possessions (7th)
Atlanta: 112.9 points/100 possessions (4th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 93.7 points allowed/100 possessions (2nd)
Atlanta: 106.9 points allowed/100 possessions (18th)
Probable Hawks Starters:
Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Al Horford
WHAT THE HAWKS DO WELL/DID WELL LAST YEAR
• Not being bad at things. I know that sounds stupid. But one of Atlanta’s strengths is the simple state of not being terrible at something. They are really good at some things, average at others and bad at almost nothing. That goes a long way in the NBA. Even their defense, their weak point so far, has been just about league average. They still switch too often on screen/rolls and Mike Bibby still can’t guard anyone, but the overall defensive numbers are average. And if the Hawks can nudge “average” to “just slightly above average,” they will be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
It’s early, but they also seem to have corrected one of their major flaws—defensive rebounding. They’re the 7th-best team so far at protecting the defensive glass (according to Basketball Reference), up from 24th last year.
• Taking care of the ball. Only eight teams had fewer turnovers per possession than Atlanta last year, and they’ve jumped to 3rd in that category early this year—despite the fact that they’ve played at a much faster pace this season (6th in pace factor, up from 24th last season). It should be noted, though, that the increased pace may be the result of an early season schedule heavy with fast-paced opponents.
WHAT THE HAWKS DO POORLY/DID POORLY LAST YEAR
• Offensive rebounding. They were 19th in offensive rebounding rate last season, and they’re down to 23rd so far this season. Is that important? The Celtics, currently sitting at 27th, certainly it isn’t as long as you do everything else fairly well.
• Defense. They’ve seen a bit of slippage in the early going. They are down from 11th in defensive rating last season to 18th in ’09-10, and Atlanta opponents have hit 37 percent of their three-pointers so far, up from 35 percent last season. Hopefully the C’s can exploit this.
PLAYER WHO MAKES ME WORRY
• Josh Smith. Have you noticed what Josh Smith is doing?
It’s early. Josh Smith is a flake. Be cautious. But Josh Smith looks like he’s making the jump. He’s 12th in the league with a PER just shy of 25. He has forsaken three-pointers (zero attempts so far this season!) in favor of driving to the hoop and creating for his teammates. The result? A career-best 59 percent from the floor and 4.4 assists per game—the same number Mike Bibby is averaging.
This is frightening. So is Zaza Pachulia’s face, offensive rebounding and willingness to mix it up with a C’s front line most of the league finds intimidating.
PLAYER WHO DOES NOT MAKE ME WORRY
• Right now? Marvin Williams. I like Marvin Williams. He works hard on his game. Last year, he added a three-point shot to his arsenal. This year, he was supposedly going to use his improved ball-handling skills to be more dangerous off the dribble.
So far, it’s not working. His minutes are down by about seven per game, his scoring average has dropped from 13.9 points per game to 9.6, he’s shooting 42 percent from the floor and his assist rate has collapsed. People are beginning to ask questions about his fit with this team, at least to this point in the season.
• Jamal Crawford. Crawford has been great so far as Atlanta’s sixth man. He’s shooting 53 percent, getting to the line and even passing the ball to that unfamiliar species known as “teammates.” Please, Atlanta, I beg you: If tonight’s game is close, please, please, please let Jamal take the clutch shots. He’s the worst clutch shooter in the NBA over the last decade, only he thinks he’s the best. Please, Mike Woodson. I’m begging you.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM THE C’s TONIGHT
• A healthy dose of screen/rolls. The Hawks are switch happy, and they’ve got the versatility with Smith/Williams/Horford/Johnson to switch without getting into disastrous mismatches. But let’s see what the Pierce/Garnett screen/roll yields. Let’s see how the Hawks handle screen/rolls involving Rondo as the ball-handler. Look for Bibby to go under those screens and concede the jumper to Rajon. If he does, will Rajon take it? Or will he use the space to gear up and blow by the helpless Bibby?
• Can Perk hurt the Hawks? Perk is going to have a nice size advantage against Horford and Pachulia, and the C’s will probably try and establish him on the low block early. But he’ll have to be diligent about racing back on defense to make sure Horford doesn’t get any easy transition buckets. Horford is good at that.
• Attack Bibby. In every possible way.
PREDICTION:
• These games always seem to be close, don’t they? You know the Hawks will be up for a fight. But the C’s are a better team, and they’re fairly well-rested. That plus home court should net a win: Boston 102, Atlanta 95.
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