Your Troubling Stat of the Day

Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 14, 2009 42381 commenthttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2009%2F11%2F14%2Fyour-troubling-stat-of-the-day%2FYour+Troubling+Stat+of+the+Day2009-11-14+19%3A27%3A18Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D4238

After Atlanta’s Windex-fest last night, the C’s are now 19th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage—the measure of how many possible defensive boards a team grabs. The C’s are currently grabbing 73.6 percent of available defensive boards, down from 75.6 percent last season (3rd in the NBA) and 74.4 percent (8th) in 2008. 

A couple percentage points here and there might not seem like much, but it represents two or three extra chances for the opponent to score—and that’s a lot, considering the average scoring margin of NBA games is fairly small. 

Now, this could be a matter of sample size. The C’s were in the top five in defensive rebounding percentage before their last two games against Utah and Atlanta, and four of their first 10 opponents rank in the top nine in the NBA in offensive rebounding. 

But this is how I honestly feel today: The C’s cannot win the championship ranking 19th in defensive rebounding. We’ve already written several times that this team does not have the personnel to be a very good offensive rebounding club; they rank 28th in that category now, and I don’t see them cracking the top 20 this season. 

And that’s OK. Plenty of poor offensive rebounding teams have won the title or been in contention in the last 10 years. But those teams (such as the Spurs of recent years) are usually excellent defensive rebounding teams—and that defensive rebounding serves as the foundation for a very good overall defense. 

The C’s have two of the greatest defensive rebounders of the last 15 years on their team (Sheed and KG), including the best defensive rebounder of that span (KG). When the C’s signed Sheed (and lost Powe, the best per-minute offensive rebounder in the league last season), the organization surely knew the team’s offensive rebounding rank would plummet. But I’m sure they also believed—rightfully—that the C’s would control the offensive boards. 

If they don’t, they won’t win the title. If age has hurt the team’s best rebounders, the C’s are in mortal trouble.

But remember: Before the Utah and Atlanta games, the C’s ranked in the top five in DRB percentage. And neither of the East’s other elite teams (Orlando and Cleveland) are good offensive rebounding teams (Orlando is 25th this season, Cleveland 29th; last year, the Cavs ranked 14th, the Magic 29th). And those two teams have two players (Brandon Bass and D12) that fit the Horford/Smith/Millsap/Kirilenko mold of young/long/athletic offensive rebounders. 

So let’s not panic….yet.