How Does Pace Really Work?
Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 16, 2009
After losses to Atlanta and Indiana, people are beginning to ask: Do the older Celtics have a problem with teams that prefer to play at a fast pace?
The knee-jerk answer is going to be yes. Already people are fretting about the Pacers 27-6 advantage in fast-break points on Saturday, just the third time this season the Celtics have been at a disadvantage in that category, according to Chris Forsberg at ESPN Boston. But here’s the thing: There were 92 possessions in Saturday’s game, a number much closer to the average number of possessions in a Celtics game (90.2) than the average number of possessions in a Pacers game (97.5).
So it appears the Celtics won the battle to “control the tempo,” or at least fought Indiana to a draw.
So why, then, did the Pacers score so many fast break points? Did it have more to do with the Celtics 15 turnovers than Indiana’s ability to push the ball against the C’s aging vets? Or are the fast-breaking Pacers more adept at scoring fast-break buckets off of those turnovers?
Another way of asking the same question: Could fast-paced teams present problems for the Celtics even if the C’s manage to slow the tempo down to a pace the C’s prefer? Perhaps finding the true impact of “tempo” on the outcome of a game is more complicated than simply calculating how many possessions each team got and using that number to declare one team a “winner” in the tempo battle.
To look into this further, I went through every game the Celtics played against the four teams that played with the fastest pace in 2008-09 and against the five fastest-paced teams so far this season (15 games in total over this time frame, with the game-by-game data available below). I calculated the number of possessions per game using this formula and divided the games into three categories:
1) Games in which the teams played at a tempo closer to Boston’s average; in other words, Boston “won” the tempo battle;
2) Games in which the teams played at a significantly faster tempo closer to the opponent’s average; in other words, Boston “lost” the tempo battle;
3) Neutral games, in which the number of possessions was almost exactly in between the two teams’ averages.
How’d the C’s do in each category? The results surprised me a bit.
The C’s total record in those 15 games: 10-5 (.667). The C’s were 9-3 in 12 games last year and 1-2 so far this year. The .667 winning percentage is lower than their overall winning percentage (.757) during this span, but it’s still pretty solid and the sample size is, of course, very small. Let’s make it even smaller!
Here’s how the C’s did in those three categories of games I mentioned earlier:
When the C’s “win” the tempo battle: 4-4
When the C’s “lose” the tempo battle: 6-0
Neutral: 0-1
Yes, the sample size is small. But something weird is (or could be) going on here, right? When the C’s surrender the tempo battle and play some run-and-gun hoops, they’re undefeated and generally winning in blowouts; their average scoring margin in those five wins (all last season) is +12, far larger than their overall scoring margin of about +7.5 in ’08-09.
But when the C’s bring the pace down to their level, they’re at .500 (4-4) and half of their wins have been squeakers, including last week’s 92-90 escape in Minnesota.
What gives? Shouldn’t the C’s be more successful when the game is played at “their” tempo?
I’m not sure what the answer is, but I’m guessing it’s complicated and linked to any number of factors, including rest, the schedule, the number of times the C’s turn the ball over and Kevin Garnett’s health. It could be that fast-paced teams cause the C’s some problems not by making our old guys sprint up and down the court but by simply being better-equipped to turn Boston’s (always plentiful) turnovers into fast-break points. It could be random statistical noise. It could be that a speedy opponent adding just two possessions to an average Boston game (instead of adding, say, 10 possessions) represents a triumph for the faster team.
I have no clue, really. But I know this: Basketball is too complicated to simply say “the Celtics have problems with fast-breaking team because they Celtics are old.”
Here’s the game-by-game data:
11/1/08: Indiana 95, Boston 79
Possessions: 93 (Pacers average possessions: 96.5; Boston’s average possessions: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Wash
11/18/08: Boston 110, New York 101
Possessions: 95 (Knicks average possessions: 96.7; Boston’s average possessions: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Knicks win
11/26/08: Boston 119, Golden State 111
Possessions: 96 (Warriors average possessions: 98.2; Boston’s average possessions: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Warriors win
12/3/08: Boston 114, Indiana 96
Possessions: 92 (Pacers average: 96.5; Boston: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
12/7/08: Boston 122, Indiana 117 (OT)
Possessions: 106 in regulation + OT, equates to 96 in 48 minutes
Averages: Indy 96.5, Boston 90.4
Pace Verdict: Pacers win
12/21/08: Boston 124, New York 105
Possessions: 88 (Knicks average: 96.7; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
12/26/08: Golden State 99, Boston 89
Possessions: 89 (Warriors average: 98.7; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
1/4/09: New York 100, Boston 88
Possessions: 88 (NY average: 96.7; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
1/19/09: Boston 104, Phoenix 87
Possessions: 97 (Phoenix average: 96.0; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Phoenix wins
2/6/09: Boston 110, Knicks 100
Possessions: 96 (NY average: 96.7; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Knicks win
2/22/09: Boston 128, Phoenix 108
Possessions: 99 (Phoenix average: 96.0; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Phoenix wins
2/27/09: Boston 104, Indiana 99
Possessions: 89 (Indiana average: 96.5; Boston average: 90.4)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
11/4/09: Boston 92, Minnesota 90
Possessions: 87 (Minnesota average: 95.9; Boston average: 90.2)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
11/6/09: Phoenix 110, Boston 103
Possessions: 92 (Phoenix average: 98; Boston average: 90.2)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
11/14/09: Indiana 113, Boston 104
Possessions: 92 (Indiana average: 97.5; Boston average: 90.2)
Pace Verdict: Boston wins
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