Game#14/82: Celtics (9-4) @ Knicks (3-9)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Nov 22, 2009
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.5 points/100 possessions (13th)
New York: 101.8 points/100 possessions (26th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 97.2 points allowed/100 possessions (1st)
New York: 108.8 points allowed/100 possessions (21st)
Probable New York starters:
Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, David Lee, Chris Duhon, Larry Hughes
Bonus!: Eddy Curry’s return to New York!
WHAT THE KNICKS DO WELL
• Nothing
• Ok, I’ll give the Knicks the equivalent of the brown ribbon you get for participation in childhood sporting events and say something nice about them. The Knicks, like the Warriors, create match-up problems when they have the ball and force teams to either surrender to their style and play small or stay traditional and abuse them offensively. Look at the Knicks starters and tell me who Kendrick Perkins can defend comfortably. Then tell me who on the Knicks can guard Perk.
• Defend Rondo. Remember, it was the Knicks last season who pioneered—most blatantly, at least—the whole “give Rondo tons of space to shoot jumpers/ignore him” strategy, using Jared Jeffries to “defend” Rondo in an early January game. Rajon responded by refusing to shoot jumpers and instead using the extra space to gain a head start on his drives to the basket. He shot 1-of-7 and the team scored 88 points on 40 percent shooting in an ugly loss.
• Forcing turnovers. Only five teams force turnovers more often than than Knicks. Chances are very good the C’s put up at least 15 TOs this afternoon.
WHAT THE KNICKS DO POORLY
• Everything else. New York’s high pace of play masks the fact that its offense is horrible. They are shooting just 31 percent from three-point range, not a good thing for a team that takes more threes per game than anyone else in the league. They have some capable shooters (Gallinari and the recently-returned Nate Robinson), so the key is rotating on defense in such a way as to leave the incapable shooters (Chris Duhon, Jared Jeffries) open.
• Defense. Paul Pierce vs. Gallinari has a chance to be car crash-level ugly.
PLAYER WHO MAKES ME WORRY
• David Lee. Lee is super active as the roll man on screen/rolls, and his quickness rolling to the hoop can cause defensive breakdowns. He has a nice touch inside, and he’s working hard to improve his 15- to 18-foot jumper so he can become a legit pick-and-pop option.
• Al Harrington/Nate Robinson. Two of the most infuriating players in the league who can go off on quick 15-point runs without notice. Harrington especially presents match-up problems when New York uses him in the power forward spot. That forces KG/Sheed/Shelden Williams to guard him on the perimeter and on dribble penetration.
PLAYER WHO DOES NOT MAKE ME WORRY
• Chris Duhon. Let me recreate a scene from Saturday’s “big” New York win over the Nets: Chris Duhon, left wide open at the top of the key with 4:24 left, nails a three-pointer to stretch the Knicks lead to 87-82. As he back-pedals to the defensive end, Duhon smirks and shakes his head as if the Nets made a terrible mistake leaving him open and, bam, he made them pay, baby!
Chris Duhon, you are shooting 24.7 percent from the floor, 22.9 percent from three-point range, and your PER is 7.7. You are a bad NBA player. I hope the Celtics design their screen/roll rotations to leave you open, so I can watch you shoot 2-of-10 from three-point range.
• Eddy Curry. His first home game after missing most of last season and this one due to knee injuries and fatness. This could be fun.
WHAT WE HOPE TO SEE FROM THE C’S TONIGHT
• Some offensive fluidity. Orlando’s D made the C’s offense look second-class on Friday, mostly because they took Rajon Rondo out of the game almost completely. You can expect the Knicks—a far less capable defensive team, obviously—to use a similar strategy on defense against Rondo. Can Rajon and the coaching staff find an effective counter?
• Small line-up defense. The armchair theory (which doesn’t quite stand up to thorough analysis) says the C’s have problems defending smaller teams that play at a higher pace. Boston gets another chance to disprove that tonight. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Perk plays and how the C’s handle Harrington defensively.
PREDICTION
• The Knicks have a knack (hey, that was fun!) for playing the C’s tough. But they are a) not a good basketball team; and b) on the second half of a back-to-back. The C’s have beaten the bad teams this season. Boston 110, New York 101.
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