Game 25/82: C’s (20-4) v. 76ers (6-19)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Dec 18, 2009
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 109.9 points/100 possessions (9th)
Philly: 106.6 points/100 possessions (17th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 99.4 points allowed/100 possessions (1st)
Philly: 111.4 points allowed/100 possessions (28th)
Probable Philly Starters:
*Samuel Dalembert • Thaddeus Young • Andre Iguodala • ? • ?
*The Sixers had been going with an Allen Iverson-Jrue Holiday back court, but Iverson will miss this game with knee and shoulder problems. It’s unclear whether the Sixers will go big and move Iguodala back to shooting guard or remain “small” and start, say, a Willie Green-Holiday back court. Neither option is very appealing.
My guess is that they will start Holiday, giving us a chance to watch Rondo go at a taller (6’3”) point guard who defends well.
WHAT THE SIXERS DO WELL:
• The Sixers are not very good at basketball. But any NBA team can be dangerous on the right night (except the Nets). So it would be nice if the C’s could limit Philly’s offensive rebounding. The Sixers are pulling down 30 percent of available offensive boards, the 4th-highest percentage in the league. This represents a quick turnaround, since Philly—a monster offensive rebounding team in ’09—ranked 21st in this category the last time these two teams played (Nov. 25th). The Brand-Dalembert front court combination might be producing negative results in most line-ups, but both of those guys can crash the offensive glass.
The C’s have fallen to 14th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage, a ranking that would have been unthinkable last year and in ’08. This game is another good test.
• Forcing turnovers. The Sixers did this well last year, and they’re doing it well again this season. Only seven teams force opponents to cough it up more often than Philly. Meanwhile, the C’s rank in the bottom third of the league (21st) in turning the ball over. Hold onto that rock, fellas.
• Hit from in-close. Philly hits 62.8 percent of its shot at the rim, the 8th-best mark in the league, according to Hoopdata.
WHAT THE SIXERS DO POORLY
• Hit from anywhere else on the floor.
Seriously. Make Philly shoot from anywhere but right at the rim, and you’ve basically won the game. The team hits just 37.9 percent of shots from 10 feet and in (excluding shots at the rim), the 4th-worst mark in the league, per Hoopdata. From 10-15 feet out? Dead last at 32.6 percent. On long-range twos? A scorching 39.5 percent, good for 16th in the league.
They shoot threes a bit better this season than last, but they’re strictly average.
So that’s the defensive challenge for the C’s: Keep Iggy and the bigs away from the hoop.
• Defend the three. Oh my god. Do you realize opponents are shooting 42.2 percent from three-point range against Philly? That is beyond awful. To put that in perspective: The most accurate three-point shooting team in league history (the ’97 Charlotte Hornets) shot 42.8 percent from three-point range. It’s true. You can look it up. So, basically, the Sixers are turning every one of their opponents into the most accurate three-point shooting team ever.
The C’s hit 14-of-20 from deep the first time these two teams played (a 105-74 massacre in Philly) and 7-of-27 the next time. Expect the percentage to fall somewhere in the middle tonight.
• Protect the defensive glass. Only two teams rebound a lower percentage of opponent misses than Philly—Golden State and Phoenix. Not exactly strong rebounding clubs. It seems like the Sixers should be better with their front line personnel, but they stunk last year, too. Tonight is a rare chance for the C’s (ranked 29th in offensive rebounding) to grab some second-chance points.
PLAYER WHO MAKES ME WORRY
• We always talk about Andre Iguodala and the difficult match-up he presents for Ray Allen (look for Pierce to guard Iggy in crunch time, if there is crunch time), so let’s talk about the guy who currently ranks 17th in PER, right below Kevin Durant and Greg Oden and ahead of every Celtic: Marreese Speights. Speights, in his second year from the University of Felons Florida, returned Wednesday after missing a month with a partially torn knee ligament.
And he’s becoming a nice player. He’s hitting 59 percent form the field, crashing the glass and stroking the jumper from 15-20 feet. He’ll be a handful for KG, and he’ll make Sheed look every bit of his 35 years.
PLAYERS WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY
• Allen Iverson. Arthritis in his left knee? Serious knee-draining already? He looks old and slow (for him), and when you hear the word “arthritis,” you think of the word “retirement,” don’t you? He won’t play tonight.
• Jason Kapono. He lit up the C’s on Nov. 25th (20 points on 8-of-11 shooting), but his minutes have dwindled since and he’s fresh off a DNP-CD.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON TONIGHT
• At least one inspired quarter of basketball—preferably before the 4th. The C’s have admitted to coasting at home against inferior teams, and nothing epitomized that habit better than allowing 110 points on Nov. 25th to a Sixers team missing Brand, Speights and Lou Williams.
• Rondo v. Holiday. We’ve seen Rondo take advantage of some sub-par defenders lately (Derrick Rose, Mike Conley, Mike Wilks, the Bucks back court), so it will be fun to watch him go up against the 6’3” rookie quickly emerging as a tough perimeter defender.
PREDICTION
This Philly team shouldn’t be able to hang against the C’s in Boston. C’s 104, Philly 92.
The Ticker