Sunday Notebook: Practice Hijinks, Minutes Issues, and Oh Hey Did You Know the C’s Have No Chance?
Posted by Zach Lowe on Jan 17, 2010
• Credit Tim Povtak at Fanhouse for this: If you’re going to make a prediction—a big, definitive prediction—make it ballsy and be the first to declare it. And Povtak, in a column none of you will like, declares the Celtics championship window has closed. Here’s the start of the piece, which is very much worth a read:
A very wise, elderly man once told me his interesting theory on getting old.
“When you are in your 60′s, the doctors now can patch you up and make you almost good as new. It’s when you get into your 70s, that’s when the patches just start falling off. That’s when you’re in trouble.”
His theory reminds me now of the Boston Celtics and their hope for one more NBA title.
It’s not happening. The patches are falling off.
The Celtics (27-11) still have the third best record in the NBA, but records are deceiving. Their fade has begun. The second half of this NBA season will only confirm what some suspected this summer.
Their window of opportunity already has closed.
And, later:
As the season progresses, it’s likely that the Cavs will pull away and both the Magic, who also are struggling now, and the Hawks, will pass the Celtics in the Eastern Conference, which means no home court advantage beyond the first round.
Let’s dissect, after the jump.
This is provocative stuff, and your first instinct is to say that Povtak is trying to be Provocative Internet Guy by making a prediction that seems, on its face, ridiculous. He sites the C’s 4-6 streak as evidence of the team’s downfall, but every team goes through a bad stretch during an 82-game season. Orlando is in one right now. The C’s had a 3-7 stretch last season before KG got hurt. Hell, the ’08 Celtics had what you might call a bad stretch in the first 14 games of the playoffs.
But you can’t just dismiss Povtak’s point. The fact is, the Celtics are one major injury away from being a second-tier Eastern Conference team in the playoffs. A pretty damn good team, yes, but a step below Orlando and Cleveland.
Another fact: We have no evidence to suggest KG can stay consistently healthy. That hurts to say and it probably hurts to read.
Look, I write about the Celtics for a living for meal money, so I obsess over every little thing—Sheed’s help defense, Rondo’s shooting percentage from 15 feet and out, TA’s turnover problems, etc. But even as I do that, there’s a small voice in the back of my head saying, “This is all well and good, but if KG can’t go in the playoffs, what’s the point?”
And right now, on Jan. 17, 2010, the “as long as the team is healthy in May” line of thinking everyone from me to you to Doc Rivers is parroting right now has to be classified as part blind hope and part reasonable.
It’s just true. It doesn’t mean I agree with Povtak’s column. But it means you can’t dismiss it as anti-Celtic vitriol.
Onto better things:
• Tell me if you’ve heard this before: Doc Rivers thinks Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo are playing too much, and he’s going to give the kids more minutes as a result. Per the Herald’s Mark Murphy:
Pierce may not admit the 40-minute-plus games have to stop, but his coach has another idea.
“We don’t need that, either,” said Doc Rivers, who even raised the prospect yesterday of lessening Pierce’s time by giving more opportunity to J.R. Giddens or the rarely used Bill Walker.
“I’ll play Billy or J.R. – one of them just to get Paul some more rest,” Rivers said.
You know what? It’s too late. Paul Pierce—age 32, with nearly 35,000 NBA minute and a recently infected knee—has played at least 39:43 in five of the C’s last seven games. Ray Allen, age 34 and approaching 40,000 NBA minutes, has played at least 40:00 in three of the C’s last five games.
These are regular season games. In January.
In Doc’s defense, Pierce is (somehow) still averaging about two fewer minutes per game than last season, and Ray is playing about the same minutes per game as ’09.
But again: These recent minutes totals are too high for regular-season games in January, and Doc has been talking off and on about cutting the Pierce/Allen minutes for two weeks. And now he’s going to play J.R. and Walker?
Too late. Of course, it’s never really too late, but you get my drift.
• Speaking of Walker and Giddens, the two engaged in an impromptu slam dunk contest during what sounds like a fun Saturday practice in Waltham. Giddens won with a between-the-legs dunk, according to Jess Camerato at WEEI:
“The between the legs one? A 10,” ranked Perkins. “That was alright, especially in practice.” Just alright? The dunk sent Eddie House running around the court and had Glen Davis rolling backward.
Other contests: House and Allen had a free-throw shooting contest (as the rest of the team did ridiculous things to distract them) and a three-point shooting contest between Sheed, Ray, Pierce and House. (House won both).
I like this quote from Doc (via the Globe) about the free-wheeling nature of Saturday’s practice:
“Honestly, after watching the tape [of Thursday’s loss to the Bulls], I brought them in the locker room, and said the last thing we need to do is practice,’’ Rivers said. “I thought we were exhausted.”
As I’ve said before, Doc is, in many ways, a great coach for a veteran team. He doesn’t micro-manage and isn’t relentlessly negative. If only he could bring the same relaxed attitude to the Pierce/Allen minutes issue.
• Speaking of three-point contests, Pierce wants in for All-Star weekend. When a reporter asked whether House or Allen most deserved a spot in my personal favorite All-Star Saturday event, Pierce nominated…himself. Via ESPN Boston:
“We’ve been talking about this, and I’m trying to nominate myself,” said Pierce. “I think I’m shooting a pretty good percentage from [3-point land].”
And:
“I think I have a good chance,” said Pierce. “I’ve really put in the time — I’ve been doing a lot of shooting, more so than in the past, and I want to redeem myself for 2002 when I only made [eight] shots. I was embarrassing the franchise.”
Awesome. Pierce is shooting 46.7 percent from deep this year. That is insanity. That ranks second in the entire NBA in three-point shooting among players with at least 100 attempts, behind only Jared Dudley.
A nice late-career evolution from the captain.
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