An Updated Look at Ray Allen’s Shooting Woes

Posted by Brian Robb on Jan 26, 2010 562413 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2010%2F01%2F26%2Fan-updated-look-at-ray-allens-shooting-woe%2FAn+Updated+Look+at+Ray+Allen%27s+Shooting+Woes2010-01-26+18%3A26%3A05Brian+Robbhttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D5624

At the beginning of this season (through 17 games) Ray Allen was struggling mightily with his outside shot. It was almost too early in the season to speculate too much on the problem, but I was alarmed enough given his age and track record, to take an indepth look at his shooting woes Here’s what the numbers looked like back in November:

2009-10 Shooting Statistics for Ray Allen (17 games)

46.4% FG Percentage
30.1% 3pt Percentage
56.2 % True Shooting Percentage
51.7 % eFG Percentage
4.4 3 point attempts per game
45% FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers (16-23 feet)

Back then, those numbers were especially troubling given how big of a drop off they showed from his numbers last year, as well as his career numbers:

FG Percentages: 48% (2008) 44.8% (career)
3 pt Percentage: 40.9% (2008) 39.7% (career)
True Shooting Percentage: 62.4% (2008 2nd in league) 57.4% (career)
eFG Percentage: 57.5% (2008 5th in league) 52.3% (career)
3 point attempts per game: 6.1 (2008) 5.9 (career)
FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers: 49% (2008)

Statistics complied from 82games, Basketball-Reference, and HoopData.

After the jump, we take a look at Ray’s updated numbers at the halfway point of the season to see exactly how much, (if any) progress has been made since November. The answer may surprise you.

2009-10 Shooting Statistics for Ray Allen (43 games)

45.3% FG Percentage
34.5% 3pt Percentage
57.1 % True Shooting Percentage
51.9 % eFG Percentage
4.4 3 point attempts per game
45% FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers (16-23 feet)

Not great, but still not as bad as you may have expected. The 3 pt shooting percentage increased dramatically to 34.5% from the 17 game mark. However that number overall is still subpar, and is slightly under Ray’s career low for a season (35.6%) which occurred way back in the lockout shortened 1998-99 season.

So what about Ray’s other offensive numbers? Would they be career lows if the season ended today? Surprisingly not even close. In all other categories listed above, Ray’s numbers are much closer to his career average rather than any kind of career low in those categories.

So what do they make of all of this? Well let’s first say he hasn’t fallen off a cliff offensively…..maybe a bit from 3 point range but not as a whole on the offensive end. Next, let’s take into account how well the team performs while he is on the floor. With a +/- of +259, he is once again the frontrunner of this roster in that category, over 50 points ahead of his closest competition (Rajon Rondo).

So while Ray might not be stroking it as well from deep, he is still a more than competent threat in helping create space and opportunities for the rest of this teammates to succeed besides him, while he is out there.

One caveat to all of this however is Ray’s production in other areas of the floor. His PER (a formula which factors in other parts of his game such as rebounding, turnovers, etc.) this season is 14.2 which is a career low for him. That number also ranks him 26th overall in the league amongst shooting guards. That my friends is not a pretty number and lands him behind guys like (gulp) Allen Iverson, Willie Green and J.J. Redick. Yikes.

Again, declines in those categories are to be expected for a 34 year old guard that is forced to play 35+ minutes a game. Still with an aging veteran core surrounding him, it is easier to understand why the C’s are having so much trouble with particular areas of the game like rebounding this year.

So what do we make of all this? I guess we shouldn’t be surprised, but Ray’s game has taken a sharper fall in parts of his game we may not have anticipated.  Should the team consider trading the sharpshooter who is understandably on the decline? I say no, but it’s reasonable to think that Danny is at least picking up the phone to listen to proposals, for the highly limited possibility he might find a deal that makes sense both short and long term to replace Jesus.