Game 47/82: Heat (24-24) @ Celtics (30-16)

Miami at Boston
8:o0 P.M. EST.

TD Bank Garden
ESPN

Local TV/Radio: CSN/WEEI

Offensive Efficiency:

Boston: 107.5 points/100 possessions (13th)

Miami: 106.5 points/100 possessions (16th)

Defensive Efficiency:

Boston: 101.6 points allowed/100 possessions (1st)

Miami: 106.1 points allowed/100 possessions (13th)

Probable HEAT starters:

Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Quentin Richardson, Joel Anthony, Rafer Alston

Injury Report

Heat: OUT: Mario Chalmers

The Heat come in to Boston in the hopes of avenging the Rondo alley-oop and the overtime loss while the Celtics hope to use this morning’s snowfall to freeze them out (oh soooo cheezy….)

WHAT THE HEAT DO WELL:

Rebounds

It’s been mentioned here before, but I suppose it bears repeating: the Heat have some guys that really get after it on the glass.  Udonis Haslem, O’Neal, and Beasley have the ability to own the glass should injuries and lack of motivation not get in their way.  This could especially hurt the Celtics on the offensive glass.  For a team with enough players that take bad shots and miss them, they make up for it for collecting the offensive rebounds and putting them back in.

Crunch Time

It’s pretty clear that in the waning seconds of a close game, regardless of which team has the ball and which team is ahead, the team that has Dwyane Wade has the advantage.

(by the way, I love how the Heat announcer yells “Wade for the win” and then of course, you know what happens next…)

WHAT THE HEAT DO POORLY:

Threes

The Heat really only have two efficient sharpshooters on the team with Quentin Richardson and James Jones.  The funny thing is, after his acquisition, Richardson effectively supplanted Jones’ role as both starting shooting guard/small forward and reserve shooting guard/small forward.  Both Jones and Dequan Cook, the Heat’s supposed main sharpshooters off the bench have either been relegated to the end of the pine, or just  was not that good of a shooter to begin with (yeah, I’m looking at you Cook.  You may have fooled NBA scouts, but you haven’t fooled me).

What that leaves is a collection of capable three point shooters in Dwyane Wade, Dorell Wright, and Carlos Arroyo.  None of these guys are going to be burning anyone from deep so I expect the Celtics to pack in the lane and force Dwyane Wade to shoot contested, off balance jumpers.

Stay Healthy

This might be playing with fire on the karma front, but I feel that it’s worth mentioning that the Heat have had their fair share of injuries.  The Heat’s former starting point guard and  now oft-relied on backup, Mario Chalmers, is out indefinitely with the Marquis Daniels’ injury, and let’s not forget that the Heat have Jermaine O’Neal (seriously, when is this guy not injured?)   The latest on the Jermaine O’Neal injury front is that he’s questionable for tonight’s game with back spasms but I think he’ll play.

PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY:

Carlos Arroyo

Please, hold your tomatoes until I have a chance to explain myself.  Did you happen to catch Eddie House’s miserable job defending Earl Boykins?  Yes, I know Boykins is a mystery the NBA gods bestowed upon the game but that still doesn’t make him unguardable.  House should have been able to do what Tony Allen did after a switch and recover enough to block a Boykins’ jumper from behind. 

I’m not sure what it was exactly that made Eddie House so inept on the defensive end Monday night.  I’ll venture to guess it was either Boykins’ quickness, or Boykins clear supremacy in the “who can play more below the rim” category.

Arroyo is bigger, but has made a living on his quickness.  If the officials allow Eddie to bump him a little on drives than I think that will delay him enough for the team defense to recover.  If the officials are calling bumps and hand checks with reckless abandon, I would not think Eddie’s really cracking the rotation tonight.

Udonis Haslem

This guy is just a baller.  He has made the most out of being undersized by really playing up his advantages.  He has a stellar midrange jumpshot that he absolutely torched Rasheed Wallace with the last time they played each other and, as I mentioned before, he is very active on the glass.  In fact, Haslem leads the team in offensive rebounding with 96.   To put that number in perspective, take the total number of offensive rebounds Rasheed Wallace, Shelden Williams, and Glen Davis have gobbled up this season and you get 98.  Bottom line: Haslem is scary-good on the glass.

PLAYER/S WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:

Any Center

The Heat have Joel Anthony, Jamaal Magloire, a hobbled Jermaine O’Neal- not exactly the most imposing men in the middle.   Anthony has played fairly well this season in spot starts for O’Neal and off the bench but he’s not as good as Kendrick Perkins, and he’s not even as good an out-of-shape Rasheed Wallace.

Magloire is perhaps the most embarrassing Allstar selection in the history of the game.  Enough said.  (Although I do fear the possibility of Magloire falling on someone or completely injuring them on an intentional foul. What a brute!)

Rafer Alston

While this guy is dropping a lot of dimes and getting a lot of steals, both really good things to get a lot of, he’s shooting very poorly from the field.  He’s shooting 33% from both the field and from three, which is low enough to dare him to shoot all game.  The good part is, Alston the type of player  that would shoot all game if you let him.

WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM THE C’s TONIGHT:

A lot of people make a big deal out of the three games the Celtics just lost against Orlando, Atlanta, and the Lakers.  The best thing for the Celtics to do is to not only down play these losses, but forget about them all together.  These games have been played and their outcomes have been recorded.  It’s time for the Celtics to start winning and winning the right way regardless of who they’re playing.

The Celtics need to come out aggressive on defensive and be very vocal.  I heard snippets of shouting from ‘Sheed, Kevin Garnett, and Rajon Rondo during the game against Washington and it made extremely happy.  I want to see active hands on the interior and I want to see guys stay in front of their man on the perimeter.

Wallace also needs to exploit his height advantage over Beasley and not match him in poor three point shot selection.  I want to see ‘Sheed back Beasley down whenever they are matched up with each other and take jumpers over him as he did to Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood in the fourth quarter of Monday’s game.  Wallace was able to take this advantage over the seven foot Haywood because Haywood defended the drive by bending at the waist and getting low in his defensive stance.  When Brendan Haywood bends at the waist, he shrinks himself to Beasley’s height standing straight up- it’s the prefect mismatch.

I want Paul out for this game. A strained foot or not, there is no point in playing Paul right now, especially after the resurgence of Tony Allen.  Speaking of, I want Tony Allen on Dwyane Wade exclusively tonight.  Pre-injury, TA rivaled DWade’s athleticism and could stay with him step for step.  While TA’s lost some explosiveness (hard to believe I know) he can still move laterally enough to hamper Dwyane’s penetration.

PREDICTION:

The Celtics tend to thrive off of teams who make poor shot selections and this Heat team is rife with players who do just that.  I believe the Green will feast on the missed Beasley three’s and the Alston jumpers that don’t find the bottom of the net, all while keeping DWade from penetrating and getting to the bucket.

The biggest fear is a close game late.  I honestly don’t think my heart can take another Dwyane Wade steal for the go-ahead/ game tieing bucket.  The Celtics need to establish a lead by the third quarter and they need to maintain it throughout.  I believe they will.

Celtics 100, Heat 95

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