Saturday Notebook: Ray’s Gettin’ Old, C’s Feed the Pig, Remembering the Legend
Posted by Zach Lowe on Feb 6, 2010
• In September, I did some research and concluded that in the NBA’s three-point era (since 1979), only one All-Star-level shooting guard—Reggie Miller—has remained productive past the age of 35. This sort of historical precedent is crucial to know and understand when making decisions about trading Ray Allen (turning 35 in July) in the next two weeks or re-signing him after this season.
On Friday, Jeremy Lundblad, one of the stat geniuses at ESPN Research, dug deep and came to the same conclusion. Some money quotes:
Over the past 35 years, only one guard over 35 and, like Allen, under 6-foot-6 has averaged 15 or more points per game. That was Sam Cassell in 2005-06, but he was playing point guard. The only such shooting guard in NBA history to average even 13 points per game was Sam Jones in his final season for the Celtics 41 years ago.
History has not been kind to aging shooting guards.
But Lundblad does note this:
However, Allen is not just any shooting guard. He is well-suited to avoiding the pitfalls that brought down his contemporaries.
Well-known for his conditioning, Allen seems unlikely to suffer the rapid decline of a Mitch Richmond or Glen Rice. He also doesn’t have the history of chronic injuries that brought down Allan Houston.
From a health and fitness standpoint, as well as style of play, there is really only one clear comparison: Reggie Miller…
History is only a guide. Ray may decline more slowly than the Houston/Richmond/Rice/Steve Smith group, but there’s no way to know that for sure.
But he is declining, and Lundblad shows one clear piece of evidence of that decline:
Ray Allen’s shooting percentages this season have declined drastically on back-to-backs and improved drastically when the C’s have more than one day off. The numbers are stark and disturbing, and I urge you to go read Lundblad’s work to see them for yourselves.
The good news, of course, is that the Celtics will get at least one day off—and sometimes two—during the playoffs.
• Speaking of Ray, Doc confirmed what I suspected after last night’s game: That the coaching staff had a minutes total in mind for Ray and would not go over it, no matter how close the game got in the 4th quarter. Again: We should applaud Doc for sticking to his pre-game commitment. (Via ESPNBoston’s Chris Forsberg):
“I was bound and determined to try to get Ray to 33 minutes, in that area, and it was murder at one point because we couldn’t make shots in that one stretch,” said Rivers. Allen logged 33:20 of action, scoring a team-high 26 points on 9-of-17 shooting.
“We were getting stops and I knew if we put Ray on the floor with Eddie [House], it would open the floor up, but Ray had already played his allotment for me. And so, I mean, that was a tough one. But we stayed with it, we stayed the course. And when [Allen] came in, it was big for us. I thought he made shots because he had better legs.”
• And boy was Eddie House on last night. And when Eddie gets hot, the team milks it, according to Rajon Rondo (via Forsberg):
“That’s our mentality: Feed the pig,” said Rondo. “Whoever has it going… Feed the pig.”
I don’t really have reason to include that quote. I just think it’s funny.
• John Krolik of Cavs the Blog (enemy!) had an interesting post earlier this week analyzing which teams are most efficient with their fast-break opportunities. How do you think the C’s fare?
• The C’s did have a game last night, even if you—like me—have already erased it from your memory a la Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. But KG did have some interesting reflections on his defense against Kris Humphries and other NJ bigs last night (via Mark Murphy of the Herald):
Signs of slippage were everywhere in the Celtics‘ 96-87 win over New Jersey last night, but the problem seemed to crystallize in the person of an obviously hobbled Kevin Garnett.
The man who is expected to make this ride a long one couldn’t elevate to convert a third-quarter alley-oop pass from Rajon Rondo. This Hall of Fame-caliber defender was taken to the hole by Kris Humphries – yes, Kris Humphries.
And here’s KG:
“I was OK – I made some misreads,” he said. “Kris Humphries made a couple of baskets on me and I wasn’t too happy about that. “I am human. I will get better at that, but right now my focus is on rebounding better and continuing to talk. I did miss some assignments tonight, which is something I don’t usually do.”
Did anyone else notice KG limping or hobbling? I didn’t. But people have to understand: It’s going to take time for KG to play himself back into game shape (again). Let’s see how he looks around March 1 or so.
• Marquis Daniels and Paul Pierce may both return on Sunday, which would give the C’s all 10 of their top 10 rotation players in a game for the first time this season. But the Grand Marquis has a lot to learn, according to Daniels and Doc (via the Herald):
“I just have to get the sets back,” Daniels said. “It’s the difference between seeing it and doing it.”
The process may be a little more involved than that, according to Rivers.
“Since Marquis has been out, we’ve put in a ton of things offensively and defensively, and he was still trying to learn the new stuff, the beginning stuff,” Rivers said. “We’ll have to throw him in there eventually. It may be (tomorrow) – I’m just not sure yet.”
Doc has been experimenting like mad with new plays, a bunch of which we have broken down on video here. Doc is earning his stripes as a coach this season.
• And, amazingly, Doc is now the third longest-tenured coach in the league after Mike Dunleavy’s resignation from the Clippers on Thursday. Only Jerry Sloan and Gregg Popovich have been with their teams longer, though Phil Jackson would be on this list if not for Kobe Bryant’s horrible attitude that everyone conveniently forgets now pushing him out of LA in 2004 Jackson’s choice to leave LA for a season after the ’04 campaign.
Doc’s reaction (via the Globe’s Julian Benbow):
“That’s surprising,’’ said Rivers, who is in his sixth season with the Celtics. “There’s some great coaches out there that clearly should have been doing this a lot longer than me. You know how this league is. It’s a talent-based league. If you have enough of it, and do your job with it, then you stay.’’
I wonder how close Doc was to losing his job in 2007.
• On a positive note, I leave you with a push to go read this story by Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com about the first-ever NBA All-Star three-point shootout in 1986—yes, the one when Larry Legend walked into the locker room (almost late) and asked the other seven competitors who would come in 2nd. (It ended up being Craig Hodges, then of the Bucks).
Just go read it. It’s a great time. And when you’re done, go watch this video. (For those who don’t have the time to watch the whole thing, Larry begins shooting at about the 2:30 mark. For those who don’t have the time to watch that excerpt, the video is of the 1988 three-point shootout, when Larry famously raises his right index finger—the “I’m No. 1″ sign—as the final shot, which he needs to win, is in mid-air).
I’ve tried to imitate Larry’s last shot here about 500 times in my life and succeeded maybe twice. I just showed it to my girlfriend by saying, “Hey, you want to see what a bad ass Larry Bird was?”
Her response (after seeing the video): “Isn’t that cocky?”
Me: “Yes, of course.”
Her: “So why is he your favorite then, if he was so cocky?”
And this is why girls don’t get sports.
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