Talking Potential Trades with The Wizards
Posted by Brian Robb on Feb 16, 2010
A little more than 48 hours remain before Thursday’s trade deadline and things have gotten a lot quieter regarding any C’s rumors out there. Is this just the calm before the storm or has all the Ray Allen talk the past couple days, been exactly that–just talk? It’s time to dig through some national and local stories, and made some educated guesses about how this trade deadline shakes out. We will start with a team we’ve spent a lot of time on lately: The Washington Wizards
One thing that is entertaining to do is compare national stories to local ones on this situation. Nationally, we have writers like ESPN’s Chad Ford hearing from other GM’s that “Danny Ainge is getting desperate to make a move.” Meanwhile, we have the local perspective from Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald, saying quite the opposite:
With that in mind, Ainge isn’t in a hurry to make a risky deal.
That’s why the Celtics deemed Washington forward Antawn Jamison, who has two years and approximately $30 million left on his contract, too old and expensive.
Ray Allen, who has an expiring max contract, remains the Celtics’ largest trade bait. The team continues to measure the veteran guard’s appeal on the market, but Ainge is reluctant to pull the trigger. Allen still is considered an important asset and likely will finish the season with the Celts.
So who should we believe here? On one hand, we have the national perspective that is getting their info from GMs whom, at one point, may have been in trade talks with Ainge. My guess is they like to say Ainge is getting desperate, because in all likelihood that’s the only way they will be able to make a deal with him, and have The Celts take a bad contract off their hands in return for an upgrade in talent for this summer.
One of the teams that has rumors still swirling around it is Washington. Caron Butler has been dealt, but the whispers indicate that the Wizards still want to cut another 3 million dollars of payroll in order to get under the luxury tax. They also would love to dump Antwan Jamison’s massive contract on a team looking to upgrade for the playoffs. The Cavs may very well be that team if the Amare deal falls through, but I can tell you the Celtics won’t be thanks to the money. Zach Lowe asked last night if we would be afraid of a deal involving Jamison, and the answer for me is an emphatic yes. Luckily, I see no way it happens.
I wrote on Friday explaining in detail why that Butler/Jamison deal won’t get done and the same points still stand here with any proposed deal for Jamison. The guy is 33, is owed 28 million over the next 2 years and plays the same position as our other aging veteran in KG who is owed 40 million dollars over the next 2 seasons.
If the C’s traded for Jamison, they would owe 3 guys in their 30s $55 million dollars next year between KG, Jamison and Pierce. And yes, Paul Pierce could feasibly restructure his contract, but with a lockout looming and 21 million waiting on the table for him, Celtics fans can’t count on that scenario. Paul may bleed Celtic green but he is no dummy either.
With Jamison, the C’s would also have $77 million committed to 7 guys, assuming the C’s don’t trade anyone under contract next year for Jamison, a likely scenario. With the luxury tax projected to be around 65 million, that would give Ainge no flexibility whatsoever with his payroll next year, trying to fill out the rest of that roster for 10 million.
That’s also without even getting into the basketball side of things with Jamison. The guys over at Hoopdata.com had a great breakdown of Jamison’s shooting numbers this year and guess what? They aren’t that great. In fact he is one the worst mid-range PF’s shooters this year percentage wise (38%), out of the players who take that shot with regularity from 16-23 feet. Do you want someone on the decline like that for the next 2 years when we’re already paying KG and Sheed to do the same thing? I don’t. Inefficent offense has been a big part of the problem for this team this year, bringing in Jamison would potentially add to that problem, in my estimation.
In closing, would Mike Miller/Antwan Jamison for Ray Allen provide a better chance for this team winning this year? You bet. However, It also slams the window shut for Danny in having the financial means to improve this team in the upcoming seasons. Thanks to this, you can bet the house and the farm on Jamison not being in a Celtic uniform come Thursday, unless Wyc and company did extremely well in the real estate business this year.
So given this situation, do I rule out any kind of trade with the Wiz? Probably, but hopefully not. I for one, would love to see Mike Miller in a Celtic uniform, but his 9.7 million dollar contract makes that a tough proposition for Danny to try to match up. A 3rd team would surely be needed to make the numbers work and even then, it might still be impossible to pull off without trading Allen. Miller’s numbers have been flat out ridiculous though this year shooting the ball, (54 percent from deep!) so if Danny can find a way to work that, without giving up Ray, it’d be amazing. It likely won’t happen though.
So that’s the Washington/C’s breakdown. The Wiz have other expiring contracts they might be looking to shed for payroll, but any players that might interest (Miller, Foye, etc.) the C’s, the Wiz would look for assets/draft picks the C’s aren’t willing to give up.
Odds of Washington Deal with Jamison: Next to nil
Odds of Washington Deal without Jamison: Slim, but highly unlikely.
Check back with CelticsHub later today for more analysis of potential Celtic trade partners as the deadline approaches.
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