Game 54/82: C’s (35-18) @ Nuggets (36-19)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Feb 21, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 106.8 points/100 possessions (14th)
Denver: 112.0 points/100 possessions (2nd)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 101.2 points allowed/100 possessions (1st)
Denver: 107.1 points allowed/100 possessions (16th)
Probable Denver starters:
Chauncey Billups, Arron Afflalo, Carmelo Anthony, Nene, Kenyon Martin
Thumbnail: The C’s wrap up their post-All-Star road trip with a visit to Denver, a powerful offensive team sporting the 3rd-best home record (23-5) in the league.
WHAT THE NUGGETS DO WELL:
• Attack the rim
Nobody attacks the basket quite like Denver. They’ve attempted by far the most foul shots in the league—a whopping 220 more than the team that sits in 2nd in that category (Orlando). To put that in perspective, that 220 gap in foul shot attempts is about the same as the gap between Orlando and Minnesota—and the T’Wolves are 19th in free throw attempts. Damn.
Obviously, Melo leads the way here with 10 FTAs per game, but Billups (7.2 FTAs/g) and Nene (4.8) also get to the line quite a bit.
The Nuggs also attempt a ton of shots near the rim; only four teams attempt more shots at the rim per game than Denver, and that’s something, considering Denver must lose a lot of official attempts because of drawn fouls.
This is an aggressive bunch. Paul Pierce will have his hands full checking Melo (a bigger, younger, better version of Pierce on offense), and the C’s big men must move their feet well to keep up with Martin and (especially) Nene.
• Defend the three.
The Nuggets are a mediocre defensive team, and they only do one or two things really well at that end. But you can excel in the NBA in 2010 if one of the things you do well on defense is defend the long ball, and only three teams (including Boston) hold opponents to a lower three-point percentage than Denver. The C’s typically struggle when the threes aren’t falling, so it will be interesting to see if they can make them against Denver or adjust if the threes are clanking.
• Shoot the three.
Denver doesn’t take many, but they hit 38 percent of them. Only Cleveland and Phoenix are more accurate.
• Force turnovers.
Only nine teams force them more often. I think we all know which teams turns it over the most often. Let’s move on.
WHAT THE NUGGETS DO POORLY:
• Rebounding.
It doesn’t seem like this should be the case, but Denver is a below average rebounding team. They rank 19th in offensive rebounding percentage and 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage, according to Basketball Reference. The C’s, at the very least, should be able to control the defensive glass in this game. They’re back up to 12th in defensive rebounding rate (after falling as low as 17th), and they should maintain the good boarding against Denver.
• Defending the mid-range game.
Much as is the case with Boston, there is a soft spot in the Denver defense—the mid-range area. The Nuggs allow significantly higher than average shooting percentages from the area between the rim and the foul line extended, according to Hoopdata. This could be good news for Rajon Rondo, who has improved his mid-range shooting a ton this season.
• Defending the screen/roll.
It’s not as pronounced as a problem as it was last year, but Denver can sometimes get a little switch-happy in defending the NBA’s bread and butter play. It will be interesting to see if Boston tries to create mismatches, via switches, by running some of the team’s pet screen/rolls—Rondo and Pierce at the top, KG and Pierce on the side.
PLAYERS WHO MAKE ME WORRY
• Melo. Duh. Dude’s a monster.
• Nene. He had a solid argument for an All-Star spot this season. He’s more mobile than people think he is, he can stick the mid-range jumper and he’s a dynamite passer. He’ll be a tough match-up for Perk or KG.
• Billups. God, is this guy fun to watch. He has a field day with point guards who gamble or have a wandering eye on defense, so Rondo will have to give Chauncey his full attention today. Billups is shooting 42 percent from deep, and he’s fantastic at using jab steps and the hard dribble/step-back combination to give himself the tiny piece of space he needs to get his shot off. Awesome at running the screen/roll. Good luck, Rajon.
PLAYERS WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:
• Johan Petro/Malik Allen. They don’t play much, but the Nugs are never thrilled when they have to go beyond their three-man front line rotation of Nene, Martin and Bird Man. The latter has a strained lower back, but he’ll probably play today. Denver worked like mad to find a deadline deal for a fourth big, but they couldn’t pull it off.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON TONIGHT:
• An undefeated road trip;
• A mature defensive game from Rondo;
• Creativity and movement on offense against a Denver defense prone to switching;
• Can the C’s protect the rim without over-fouling? This will be one factor that decides the game. The C’s protected the rim beautifully against Portland on Friday, but the aggression with which they did so yielded 40 foul shots for the Blazers. If he’s not careful, Perk could have two fouls before five minutes are up in the first quarter.
• A strategy for Melo. The C’s don’t like throwing hard double teams at perimeter players, but we’ve seen them shade a second defender over to the foul line area when elite scorers—Joe Johnson, for instance—hold the ball on the wing. It’s a sort of 1.5-team, designed to deter penetration into the paint. We should see something like that against Melo today, since no one on the C’s can guard him straight up.
PREDICTION:
A game at Denver is about as tough a win to get as there is in the NBA. The 3:30 start—1:30 in Denver—may help the C’s, but this is a tall order. Denver 103, C’s 99.
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