Game 60/82: C’s (38-21) @ 76ers (22-38)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Mar 5, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.1 points/100 possessions (13th)
Philadelphia: 105.6 points/100 possessions (21st)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 102.1 points allowed/100 possessions (2nd)
Philadelphia: 109.2 points allowed/100 possessions (22nd)
Probable Philadelphia starters:
Lou Williams, Jrue Holliday, Thaddeus Young, Sam Dalembert, Andre Iguodala
Thumbnail: The C’s finish their season series against the disappointing Sixers and look to play their second straight solid game.
WHAT THE SIXERS DO WELL
• Stand pat at the trade deadline.
• Have an awkward mix of coaching system (Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense) and personnel. It’s too early to deem the experiment a total failure, but we’re getting closer to that point.
• Offensive Rebounding. This may be the only area in which Philly performs significantly better than league average. Only four teams grab a higher percentage of available offensive rebounds, according to Basketball Reference. This will be a good test for the C’s, who have been inconsistent on the defensive glass all season.
• Protect the rim. Philly is holding opponents to 59.9 percent shooting at the rim, a tick better than league average. Sam Dalembert and Elton Brand form an occasionally imposing front line, though Brand is questionable for tonight’s game.
• Force turnovers. The Sixers aren’t the turnover-forcing machine they were last season, but they still rank in the top 10 here. We know where the C’s rank in terms of turnovers.
WHAT THE SIXERS DO POORLY.
• Defend the three. Philly opponents have hit 40.2 percent of their three-point attempts. Let’s put this number into context to show how truly awful it is.
Last season, the C’s shot 39.7 percent from three-point range. That was, at the time, the 12th-best single-season mark in NBA history. So the Sixers have turned their collective opponents into one of the greatest three-point shooting teams ever. It would be easy to blame the guards (Holiday, Williams, and, for a brief time, Allen Iverson), but this is a collective failure.
• Shoot the three. Only eight teams have made fewer, and only nine shoot a lower percentage. Iguodala’s team-high 238 attempts (on 31 percent shooting) have not helped.
You better be good at an awful lot of other things if you want to win in today’s NBA without being able to shoot the three or defend it. Philly is not good at enough other things. Some freaking top-notch analysis right there, I know.
PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY:
• Iguodala: He’s a tough match-up for Boston, though his career points per game against the C’s (16.0) is right at his career average. He’s a bit strong for Ray Allen and a bit quick for Pierce, but he’s yet to develop the diverse offensive game necessary to take advantage of either match-up. He’s also hit just 23 percent of his threes against Boston over his career. Match-ups aside, the C’s are doing something right against Iggy. Pierce will start on him tonight if the Sixers start the above line-up.
• Williams. With Brand out, the Sixers have shifted Iguodala to the three and played Williams and Holiday in the back court. Williams has had trouble playing the point, but unleash his scoring skills in a sort of hybrid guard role, and he can be very dangerous. Ray will have to work hard tonight.
• Marresse Speights. A quick, athletic big with a decent J. He only plays 16.5 minutes per game, mostly because he’s having a hard time figuring out NBA defense. Good luck guarding him, though.
PLAYER/S WHO DO NO MAKE ME WORRY:
• The bench. Other than Speights, it’s a disaster. Kapono, for whom they traded Reggie Evans, barely plays. Thaddeus Young has taken a step back, and Willie Green, though he’s improved his shooting this season, still shouldn’t be playing 22 minutes a game in the NBA.
• Iverson. He’s not here anymore, and we may never see him again in the NBA. It was a fun, fascinating, polarizing run. Good luck sorting out the family issues, Answer.
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING FOR FROM BOSTON:
• KG in the post. If Brand doesn’t play, Philly has no one that can check him. We should see the C’s run a lot of their offense through KG on the block if Philly starts Thad Young at power forward. Garnett has looked better over the last couple of games, and he executed some of his pet scoring moves against Charlotte. Let’s hope it keeps up.
• Protect the defensive glass. The C’s need to get this area cleaned up for the post-season. Might as well get started against an elite offensive rebounding club (though they aren’t quite “elite” without Brand).
• Care for the basketball. Wishful thinking, I know. But the Sixers shouldn’t have a chance against Boston unless the C’s gift them some points via turnovers. You want to take care of business against a bad team? Take care of the rock.
• Nate in the paint. The threes are nice, but it’s time for Nate to show us more of his game.
PREDICTION:
Philly shouldn’t be able to hang with the C’s. Boston 102, Philly 90.
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