How Much Better Has Ray Allen Been Since Trade Deadline?

The Celtics are sitting at 40-21, good for 3^rd place in the Eastern Conference. They have won 8 of their last 11 games since the All-Star Break. The wins have not been impressive, but it has been a sustained positive stretch for this team, something this squad has been struggling to sustain for the past 2 months. So what has been the main difference? The first thing you would have to point to is the improved play of Ray Allen on the offensive end.

We’ve spent a lot of time on Ray Allen this year here at Celtics Hub, covering his early struggles to every imaginable trade scenario for the guy over the course of 2 months. With both the Celtics and Allen struggling in the games approaching the trade deadline, the whispers surrounding the C’s only valuable trade chip became louder and more sustained. Once the deadline passed however, Ray Allen has become a different animal with the ball.

Here’s the numbers breakdown, with me looking at Ray’s numbers in the 1^st half of the season, in the 12 games before the deadline when the rumors really started to heat up and finally his number since the trade deadline:

Season Stats (2009-2010 Season) MPG          FG%        3PT%            PPG

Pre ASB Break (51 games):             36.4            45               33.8            16.0

12 Games Before Deadline:            37.5            38.4            25.8            14.9

Post Deadline (10 games)               34.7            57.7            44.2            18.7

Lots of numbers discrepancy right there, which leads bring us to the obvious question, how much did the trade rumors affect Ray? Our guess and other possible explanations for the numbers, after the jump

The “obvious” explanation for Ray’s improved performance would seemingly be the coming and going of the trade deadline. The splits noted earlier are quite dramatic and well, the onus of trade rumors swirling around a player who has his family planted in the Boston area can’t be dismissed. He also has local roots (went to school at UConn) and is extremely active in the community. Naturally, Ray Allen being a consummate professional, never alluded to the rumors affecting his game when questioned about it repeatedly both before and after the deadline.

Coach Doc Rivers has also been asked about Ray’s improved performance a number of times in recent weeks. While not dismissing the effect the rumors could have had on Ray, he has pointed to other reasons for Ray’s improved play. Allen’s Celtic teammates have followed suit, along with Allen in attributing the improvement to other factors (All-Star Break, team in better all around rhythm) since Ray has caught fire. It’d be foolish of us to dismiss those factors outright, so let’s look at the some other potential influences on Ray’s game.

2^nd Half Player?

An argument that carries some weight here is the rest Ray got around the Break, sitting a full week (out in New Orleans with back spasms) before the All-Star Break this year. Allen’s career numbers show that he is an improved player in the 2^nd half of the year, with sustained 1-2 percent jumpers in all scoring offensive categories including FG percentage, 3pt Percentage and points per game.

In another seemingly good sign, the splits were most pronounced in the 2007-08 season with Ray showing massive six and seven point jumps respectively, in FG percentage 43 to 49 % as well as 3 pt shooting percentage 37% to 44%.  This of course came on the way to banner 17^th.

The only caveat with this argument is the stinker Ray had in Sacramento right after the break, and just before the trade deadline (5 of 15 shooting, 1 of 6 from deep). That’s just being picky though to point out one game, though it does further the deadline effect argument to a degree.

Team’s Overall Improved Play?

Ray pointed out this argument in the past week, noting how this team has been playing better, which has helped him with his game. Well, to put it bluntly, this hasn’t been true at least of the starters on the offensive end.

We will start with Paul Pierce who has put up some of the worst offensive numbers of his career since returning from his foot injury in the past 7 games. Pierce has averaged a paltry 12 points a game on 40% shooting in that time span. Impressive it has been not.

The rest of this Celtic team hasn’t shown much to write home about in the past 10 games either, with the vast majority of the roster showing drops from their season averages in all offensive categories, with KG being the only exception to that trend.

It’s clear on the offensive end, Ray has been carrying the load and hasn’t been getting much help, which makes me dismiss this explanation.

Minutes going down?

No one has referred to this at all yet, but it’s hard not to point out how Allen’s minutes have dropped down to 34 per game in the recent stretch from the 36 he had been playing prior to the break. It’s not a dramatic decrease, however the drop, combined with the additional rest around the break, may have infused the 34 year old shooting guard with renewed energy. Allen has showed an openness to getting additional rest all year, and so it’s nice Doc is finally providing the aging marksman with the chance to stay fresh. Let’s just hope Doc sticks to it.

Natural Up and Down of Season?

I’m going to defer to Chris Forsberg’s piece from ESPNBoston.com, with him quoting KG on Ray’s recent stretch:

Allen remained steadfast in suggesting that all the chatter surrounding him before the NBA trade deadline didn’t affect his game, but it’s getting harder to dispute given his solid play since the deadline passed. Still, Garnett defended Allen’s early-season play.

“I can just say that each player has their time where they play up and down,” said Garnett. “That is the nature of the season. You guys don’t know, but he deals with a lot of different things with injuries. You know we all deal with different types of physical stuff. He is no different than that. At the same time, he had talks of business, about where he was going to be in his future and stuff. I can just tell that he is a lot healthier. Everything that he is doing is a lot more fluid. He is not thinking a lot, he is just reacting, and it’s beautiful basketball.”

Honestly, KG boiled it down perfectly there. It’s fun to speculate, but we barely know the half of it of what’s going on with these guys. Did the trade deadline passing change Ray’s play? Who knows, but it probably couldn’t hurt it.

Allen was having a down season shooting the ball from deep, prior to the trade deadline but his overall FG percentage was at his career average (45 percent).  Listen, Ray Allen may have regressed some this year, but for a career 40 percent 3 point shooter to fall off the cliff so much from 41% shooting last year to the 33% in the first 50 games of this year would have been well, unprecedented. We are talking about one of the best shooters in the history of the game here, not a flash in the pan.

So for now, we have the old Ray Allen back. We can’t expect him to sustain his 2^nd half numbers for the next 3 months, but somewhere in between the first half averages is not too much to ask. For now, sit back and enjoy vintage Ray playing, as KG describes it, “beautiful basketball.”

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