Alarming Long-Term Trend: Opponent Free Throws

The post-’07 Celtics have always been a foul-prone team, but they didn’t start off this season as such. And that was a good thing, because the 2010 Celtics just haven’t been as good—so far—as the ’08 and ’09 versions. A team can maintain an elite record when its talent level drops by becoming smarter and doing the little things better—like playing great defense without fouling.

The C’s were doing that until about mid-January. At that point, they ranked in the middle of the pack in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt after finishing in the bottom 10 in that category in each of the two prior seasons.

In mid-January, Boston opponents were attempting about 23.5 free throws per game—a league average mark, and about two attempts fewer per game than Boston allowed last season.

Since then? The C’s appear to be back to their foul ways.

Since January 10th (a span of 28 games, including last night’s loss at Milwaukee):

• Boston opponents have attempted 773 foul shots, about 27.6 per game;

• Boston opponents are attempting .364 free throws per field goal attempt;

Those are not good numbers. Only Golden State and Indiana allow more than 27.6 foul shots per game, and they play at the fastest and second-fastest pace in the league, respectively. Boston is near the bottom in pace rankings.

And that .364 FTA/FGA ratio for Boston opponents? Over the course of the full season, that would be the highest (i.e., worst) mark in the league, according to Hoopdata.

This doesn’t appear to be the fluky result of the schedule. Of those 28 games, only 10 have come against opponents ranked in the top 10 in terms of free throws earned per field-goal attempt. That’s about what you’d expect from any random stretch of the schedule.

Likewise, the four games (!) in which the C’s have allowed 40 or more free throws during this stretch don’t skew the results and create a false impression. For one thing, four games out of 28 is a significant number. But more telling is the fact that the C’s have allowed 25 or more foul shots in 18 of those 28 games.

This isn’t some statistical fluke. This is a thing that is happening, and it’s happening to a team that doesn’t have the margin for error it did last season or the season before that.

So what’s going on?

I’ve got some theories, but these are just theories:

• The most foul-prone players are getting more minutes than they were earlier in the season.

Among the C’s regulars, three players commit significantly more fouls per 36 minutes (or, if you like, fouls per minute) than anyone else on the team: Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace and Tony Allen. All three have gotten more playing time since January than they did in the season’s early months.

TA didn’t play until December 8th, and Davis sat out until Christmas with the broken bone in his hand.

As for Wallace, he started six games in January for KG and averaged nearly 31 minutes per game that month. More Sheed=more fouls. It’s science, right? (Maybe not, but hold tight…)

• Some of the older guys are fouling a bit more often than they did in their primes. Or even two years ago.

Kevin Garnett is committing 2.9 fouls per 36 minutes, his highest foul rate since 1999. That number was at 2.6 last season and 2.2 in 2007 for the T’Wolves. Ray Allen’s foul rate has jumped a tick (from 2.0 per 36 to 2.2). Paul Pierce’s rate is holding steady.

Sheed’s per-minute foul rate has jumped the most of anyone on the team. The new guy is committing 4.4 fouls per 36 minutes, up from 3.3 per 36 last season. That’s a huge jump, especially since Sheed’s fouls/36 number hadn’t even been higher than 3.3 since the late 1990s.

There are a number of things that could explain this. Sheed could be playing more aggressively now, knowing that he’s a bench player expected to log fewer minutes than he did during his days as a key starter in Detroit. Might as well make the minutes count, the thinking goes.

Or the fouls could be collateral damage from the decline in Sheed’s athleticism and his shaky conditioning. He’s certainly reaching with arms more this season.

But one little fact undermines both of these theories: The C’s aren’t committing more fouls per game. Over those 28 games, the C’s have committed almost exactly 21 fouls per game—half a foul below their season average.

Huh? The only explanation I can think of without delving super-deeply into the record is that the C’s must be committing more shooting fouls or playing with less discipline once teams get into the penalty. But that’s all speculation until I can prove it.

What’s not speculation is that opponents are hurting the C’s at the foul line. Again: The Thibodeau/Garnett C’s have always been foul-prone. They play physical inside and, when they’re going right, they run out hard to contest three-point shots. In playing that style, you accept that opponents will get to the line at a decent rate.

It’s a trade-off, and it’s one that has worked for Boston since the start of the ’08 season.

But once you start allowing 28 free throws per game instead of 25—and allowing those 28 free throws even though you play at a slow pace—you find yourself in trouble. Especially when you’re not quite as good at as many things as you were before.

The average NBA game is decided by a tiny margin, and a couple of foul shots make a difference. If this is who the C’s are—a very foul-prone club—they’ll have to make up those two or three points per game elsewhere, either by getting to the line more, rebounding better,  hitting a higher percentage of threes, or something else.

Now more than ever for this group, every point matters.

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