Game 75/82: C’s (47-27) vs. Rockets (37-37)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 2, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.1 points/100 possessions (16th)
Houston: 107.0 points/100 possessions (17th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 102.6 points allowed/100 possessions (2nd)
Houston: 107.4 points allowed/100 possessions (16th)
Probable Houston starters:
Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Jermaine Taylor/Kevin Martin*
* Martin has missed four straight games due to a shoulder injury
Thumbnail: The C’s are 4-3 so far in a brutal 9-game stretch we wrote about before it began. A win here guarantees a winning record in those nine games and would halt a two-game losing streak. Houston is lottery-bound.
WHAT THE ROCKETS ARE GOOD AT:
• Math.
• Nothing. Ok, so that’s not true.
But it’s (sort of) accurate to say the Rockets aren’t really good at anything. They rank between 10th and 21st in each of the four factors on offense and defense, according to Basketball-Reference. There may not be a more average team in the league, so it’s fitting Houston enters this game at 37-37.
• Avoiding fouls. This is the factor in which they rank 10th, so we’ll give it to ‘em. They ranked 2nd in this category last season, so they’ve become a bit more foul-prone without Ron Artest and Yao.
• Shot distribution. If you’re a believer in an offensive scheme that focuses on getting shots at the rim and from behind the three-point line—and forsaking the mid-range game—the Rockets are for you.
Only three teams attempt more three-pointers per game than Houston, according to Hoopdata. And guess what? Only three teams attempt more shots at the rim than the Rockets.
Sadly for Houston fans, the Rockets aren’t particularly good at making either type of shot. Only the Bucks and Nets covert a lower percentage of shots at the rim, and the Rockets are in the middle of the pack in three-point shooting.
These rankings will look much better if the team gets full seasons in 2011 out of Yao and Martin. (Duh).
• Three-point defense. It’s a weird thing to highlight for a team that allows opponents to shoot 35.9 percent from deep—the 10th-highest mark in the league. But opponents attempt just 16.6 threes per game against the Rockets; only three teams allow fewer three-point shots per game.
In this sense, the Rockets play a lot like the Spurs—jack a lot of threes but don’t allow your opponent to do the same.
WHAT THE ROCKETS DO POORLY:
• Convert at the rim. We mentioned this above. I should remind you Chuck Hayes is their starting center.
• Protect the rim. Opponents hit 62.5 percent of their shots at the rim against the Rockets, according to Hoopdata. I should remind you Chuck Hayes is their center. He’s 6’6”, by the way. The Rockets rank 28th in blocked shots. For all the hype about Chucks Hayes’ defense (he’s a 6’6” starting center who isn’t completely overwhelmed!), people are overlooking the fact that the Rockets are miserable around the rim at both ends.
This is not to say Chuck Hayes is not a good defensive player. He’s good at what he can be good at—using his lower body to push bigger guys off the block, making smart decisions off the ball, etc. But he can’t protect the rim, and you need somebody to do that. It would almost be like the C’s starting Glen Davis at center, except Baby is (listed at) 6’9”.
PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY:
• Luis Scola. A crafty scorer and solid defensive rebounder. He’s averaging 16-9 on 51 percent shooting for the season, but he jacked that up to 21-10 in March. He dribbled and faked circles around KG and the other Celtics bigs for the first 15 minutes or so when these teams played two weeks ago, but the C’s held him to just 7 points over the final three quarters (and 17 for the game).
• Aaron Brooks. Rondo destroyed him defensively two weeks ago. Brooks had averaged 24 per game in the six games before Boston arrived in Houston, but Rondo, fighting over screens and denying Brooks the ball, held him to 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting. Rajon scored two points in the game but completely dominated it for long stretches. Can he do it again?
• Kyle Lowry. He actually frightens me. He may be the most out-of-control-looking under control player in the league, if that makes sense. Watch him flying up the court on a 2-on-3 “fast break.” You’ll see what I mean.
PLAYER/S WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:
• The rest of the team.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON:
• Containment on Brooks. Rondo was fantastic last time, and when Brooks managed to turn the corner on a screen/roll, the C’s back line help and rotations were perfect. It was one of the team’s best defensive performances of the season, and if Martin misses this game, there’s no reason Houston should crack 90 against a motivated Boston team.
• Pound the paint. Perk has a major height advantage over Hayes and a strength advantage over Houston’s back-up center, David Andersen, who may not play because of an injury. If KG can’t take advantage of Luis Scola in the post, we might as well pack it in.
• Marquis Daniels. Come on. Do you really want to be known as the guy who couldn’t beat out Tony Allen and Michael Finley for playoff minutes? Shut down Trevor Ariza. Post up Jermaine Taylor. Gimme something.
PREDICTION:
With Martin banged up, Houston shouldn’t be within 10 points of the Celtics in Boston. 101-90, good guys.
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