Game 76/82: C’s (47-28) vs. Cavs (60-16)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 4, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.3 points/100 possessions (15th)
Cleveland: 111.4 points/100 possessions (4th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 102.9 points allowed/100 possessions (3rd)
Cleveland: 103.5 points allowed/100 possessions (6th)
Probable Cleveland starters:
Mo Williams, LeBron James, J.J. Hickson, Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker
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Since winning in Cleveland on opening night, the C’s have lost to the Cavs twice—by double-digits. This is Boston’s last chance in the regular season to prove it is ready to take on the elite of the Eastern Conference.
WHAT THE CAVS DO WELL:
• Everything they choose to do well. I’m not trying to be pithy. The Cavs are awesome—4th in offensive efficiency, 6th in defensive efficiency, and the only categories in which they rank poorly (offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers) are categories which they basically punt. They don’t crash the offensive glass; they get back on defense instead. They don’t force turnovers; they emphasize staying in front of their men instead. Mike Brown is a Gregg Popovich disciple, after all.
But let’s highlight some things casual fans may not know the Cavs do very, very well. Things like:
• Shoot the three. Only Phoenix makes a higher percentage of three-point shots than does Cleveland, and Phoenix is having one of the top-five all-time seasons for three-point shooting accuracy. And this isn’t about LeBron, who is down to 34.3 percent and shoots too many threes.
This is about Mo Williams (42 percent), Boobie Gibson (48 percent!), Anthony Parker (41 percent), and even Zydrunas Ilgauskas (11-of-23 for the season, and you really shouldn’t leave him open in the corner).
This is a team that does the penetrate-and-kick thing really well.
• Finish at the rim. The Cavs hit 66.5 percent of their shots at the rim, according to Hoopdata. That is the best mark in the league.
• Prevent you from finishing at the rim. Cleveland opponents hit just 57.8 percent of their shots at the rim. Only three teams hold opponents to a lower shooting percentage on close shots.
If you can score at the rim efficiently and protect it well, you’re a long way to being an elite NBA team.
• Defensive Rebounding. Only the Magic rebound a higher percentage of opponent misses. You don’t get a ton of second chances against the Cavs.
• Start games. The Cavs have the best first-quarter point differential in the league. If you’re tied after one, you’re doing well.
WHAT THE CAVS DO POORLY:
• Free throw shooting. At this moment, the Cavs are the worst foul-shooting team in the NBA (72.1 percent). Hi, Shaq.
• Turnovers. The Cavs turn the ball over, per possession, at a league average rate. That qualifies as “bad” for the Cavs. In case you’re wondering, the C’s have jumped from 29th to 28th in turnover rate! Hooray! Charlotte has been ranked 30th for most of the season, with Boston at 29th. So who did the C’s pass? Take a guess.
PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY OTHER THAN LEBRON:
• Hickson. He’s active and quick, and he’s getting better every day at finding seams away from the ball. He scored 12 the last time Boston played the Cavs, and he’s capable of hurting the C’s if the bigs aren’t on their game.
• Anderson Varejao. Thank heaven he’s not playing today. Sheed and KG may still be traumatized by how badly Varejao outworked them on the boards last month.
• Mo Williams. Right there with Jameer Nelson for title as League’s Biggest X-Factor. When he plays well—and hits from long range—the Cavs win.
PLAYER/S WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:
• Jamison. He’s been shooting better lately (37 percent from deep with the Cavs after a slow start), but he doesn’t frighten me. I’m comfortable with Jamison shooting from deep late.
• Jamario Moon. Big disappointment.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON TODAY:
• A win against one of the East’s elite. Last time we had one of those? Christmas.
• Experimentation with LeBron defenses. There’s a decent chance the C’s will face Cleveland in the 2nd round of the playoffs, so the coaching staff has surely been thinking about several different looks they can throw at LeBron—aggressive traps, shading an extra defender over to the strong side (as the C’s did against Denver), more Tony Allen on LeBron, etc. Let’s watch carefully to see what we might see today.
• No over-helping. We see it now and then with Rajon Rondo, and we saw it with Nate Robinson Friday against the Rockets. If you’re going to help, you better damn well be helping. If you’re drifting away from your guy with no real benefit to the team, the Cavs will rain threes.
PREDICTION:
• Unfortunately, there is very little (i.e. nothing) in Boston’s 2010 record to suggest they are going to win this game. I hope I’m wrong. Cavs 102, C’s 95.
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