Game 79/82: C’s (49-29) vs. Wizards (24-54)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 9, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.7 points/100 possessions (15th)
Washington: 104.0 points/100 possessions (25th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 103.3 points allowed/100 possessions (4th)
Washington: 109.3 points allowed/100 possessions (18th)
Probable Washington starters:
Nick Young, Shaun Livingston, Fabricio Oberto, Mike Miller, Andray Blatche
Thumbnail: With four games to go, the Celtics are tied with the Hawks for 3rd place in the Eastern Conference but own the third spot because of the NBA’s bizarro tie-breaker rules. These next four games are all winnable, though they come in the form of two back-to-backs. After tonight, the C’s have a road game against Chicago sandwiched between two games against the Bucks. Chicago and Milwaukee have something to play for, so this figures to be the only walkover left on the schedule; the Wiz are 3-18 in their last 21 games and basically have an entirely new roster. A win would be good.
WHAT THE WIZARDS DO WELL:
• The embarrassing pursuit of triple-doubles.
• Offensive Rebounding. The Wiz rebound 27.5 percent of their own misses, the 9th-best mark in the league (but only one percentage point above league average). Of course, their best offensive rebounder now plays for the Mavericks (that’d be Brendan Haywood), but JaVale McGee, the Eastern Conference version of DeAndre Jordan, has crashed the glass well since the trade deadline.
WHAT THE WIZARDS DO POORLY:
• Basically, everything else.
I mean, this is a hybrid NBA/D-League team at this point, and while the D-League is exciting and stocked with capable players (witness Reggie Williams and Anthony Tolliver in Golden State), a roster like this is not going to win in the NBA.
But let’s look at some things the Wiz do especially poorly:
• Defensive Rebounding. The C’s have been getting a little friskier on the offensive glass over the last 20 games, and that should continue here. Only the Nets, Knicks, Warriors and Suns grab a lower percentage of opponent misses than do the Wiz.
• Protect the rim. Opponents hit 65.8 percent of their shots at the rim against Washington. That’s the worst mark in the league, according to Hoopdata. Of note: Washington opponents only attempt about 23.5 shots per game at the rim, the 2nd-lowest mark in the league. Washington doesn’t allow a lot of attempts at the rim, but those they do allow usually go in. Perk and KG should be able to get good looks tonight against Oberto, McGee and Blatche.
• Turnovers. Only eight teams force fewer, per possession, and only nine cough it up more often.
PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY
• Blatche. Seven Day Dray (Remember that? That was cute.) is tossing up about a 20-7 since the Wiz dealt away Haywood, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler at the trade deadline. He’s an active, agile big with improving range, and if he’s engaged, he could give the C’s front line problems.
• Miller. He’s only 29, but he talks about himself like he’s 35 and has continued his bizarre decline as a shooter/scorer that began last season in Minnesota. But he’s a good rebounder and a solid passer, and his all-around game is a challenge for anyone.
• McGee. The seven-footer is getting minutes and playing hard as the season winds down. He’s scored in double-digits in six straight games on 56 percent shooting in that span. He’ll work the C’s bigs over if they go on cruise control tonight.
PLAYER/S WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:
• Nick Young. I’m pretty sure Young has the highest taunt/basket ratio in the league. Nick is shooting under 42 percent and dishing a career-worst 0.6 assists per game in his third season.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON TONIGHT:
• A defensive resurgence. Remember when the Celtics were allowing 100 points per 100 possessions? Or 101? Or 101.5? Now they’re up to 103.3 and down to 4th in the league in that category. Over the last 10 games or so, the defense has really slipped. This is a difficult time for the players to bring post-season-level intensity, so perhaps it’s unrealistic to expect a vintage C’s defensive performance against a team like the Wiz. But, really, there’s no reason Washington should crack 90 against the C’s. But I said that about the Knicks earlier this week, and, well, yeah.
• Who guards Rondo? The Wiz don’t really have a natural match-up for Rajon, so perhaps we’ll see yet another team stick a taller guy (the 6’7” Livingston?) on Rajon and have that guy play several feet off of Rondo. The C’s have gotten better at coping with that sort of defense, but they are still prone to offensive lulls against it.
• The back court bench mob. Doc hinted recently that Nate Robinson and Marquis Daniels will get the chance to prove they deserve minutes. Is tonight the night?
• Work the post. KG, Perk and Sheed should be able to score from 15 feet and in against the Wiz front line.
PREDICTION:
Gino lives. C’s 108, Wiz 88.
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