Game 80/82: C’s (49-30) @ Bucks (45-34)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 10, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.6 points/100 possessions (15th):
Milwaukee: 104.6 points/100 possessions (23rd)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 103.4 points allowed/100 possessions (4th)
Milwaukee: 102.6 points allowed/100 possessions (T-1st)
Probable Milwaukee starters:
Carlos Delfino, Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Thumbnail: A possible playoff preview, as this would be the 4-5 match-up if the season ended today. If the C’s truly fear the Bogut-less deer, they could easily push the Bucks down to the 6th spot by sweeping this game and the season finale against the Bucks in Boston.
WHAT THE BUCKS DO WELL:
• Force turnovers. This is a classic trait of any Scott Skiles team. As you can see from those little efficiency ratings at the top of this preview, the Bucks have passed the C’s in defensive efficiency even though they don’t hold teams to a particularly low shooting percentage. How? The turnovers help. Only the C’s and Warriors force them more often per possession. If these teams do meet in the post-season, the best way for the C’s to turn a potentially competitive series into a sweep is to take care of the ball.
• Take care of the ball. Or: A way in which the Bucks are nothing like the C’s.
The Celtics have cut the turnovers a bit over the past 15 games, but they are still insanely turnover-prone and they neutralize much of the good they create in forcing turnovers on defense by coughing the ball up on offense.
Not the Bucks. They force a ton of TOs on D and squeeze the orange (™Raftery) on offense. Only four teams turn the ball over less often, per possession, than do the Bucks. Much of the credit goes to Jennings. He can’t shoot from inside the three-point arc, but he takes wonderful care of the ball for a rookie.
• Shoot the three. The Bucks hit the three at about a league-average rate (35.6 percent), but it’s a huge part of their game; only four teams have attempted more shots from deep. Jennings, Delfino, Salmons, Luke Ridnour and Charlie Bell are all shooting 36.5 percent or better from three for the Bucks. Ersan Ilyasova, a power forward, hits about the same percentage as LeBron James (34 percent) on three attempts per game.
You’ve got to pay attention to all of them.
• Defend the three. Only the Nets and Spurs allow fewer attempts per game, and Milwaukee opponents have hit just 34.1 percent of their threes—one of the lowest marks in the league.
• Protect the rim. It will be fascinating to see if the Bucks can keep this up without Bogut. So far this season, Milwaukee opponents have hit just 58 percent of shots at the rim, a mark that ties Cleveland and San Antonio for the 4th-stingiest in the league, according to Hoopdata. The C’s should shatter that mark with Bogut on the bench.
WHAT THE BUCKS DO POORLY:
• Battle of the fouls. This kills the Bucks, all the time. Only Utah sends opponents to the line more often, per field-goal attempt, according to Basketball-Reference. And on offense, no team has taken fewer foul shots than Milwaukee. Milwaukee basically spots its opponents an 8-point lead.
• Convert at the rim. The Bucks were miserable at it, even with Andrew Bogut having his best season ever. Milwaukee finishes just 56.6 percent of its shots at the rim, the worst mark in the league, according to Hoopdata.
• Actually, shooting from anywhere from 15 feet and in. The Bucks hit a worse percentage than league average from every area on the floor south of the foul line, according to Hoopdata.
PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY:
• Salmons. Putting up 19.8 points per game on 47 percent shooting (39 percent from deep) in Milwaukee. Often gives Paul Pierce fits.
• Ilyasova. A sneaky offensive player who makes the C’s power forwards guard him out to the three-point line. Averaging a 14-6 in two games against the C’s this season.
PLAYER/S WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:
• Jennings. His 37 percent overall shooting mark isn’t quite as bad as it looks given he’s hitting the same percentage from deep, but Rajon has all the tools to shut him down and exploit him on the other end.
• Dan Gadzuric. Every minute Gadzuric gets is a good thing for any Milwaukee opponent.
WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON TONIGHT:
• Honestly? I don’t even know anymore. The obvious answer would be a resurgence of the team’s defense, which hasn’t shown up in its normal form in two weeks. But last night’s stink bomb against the Wiz may indicate the C’s have basically decided to mail in these last few games, playoff seeding be damned. Paul Pierce conceded the team did not bring its best effort against Washington, and when the Captain admits that, I have no idea what to expect in Game #80.
PREDICTION:
Milwaukee cares about this game, and they’re playing their butts off. We know that for sure. That’s all we know for sure. Bucks 97, C’s 92.
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