Game 81/82: C’s (50-30) @ Bulls (39-41)
Posted by Zach Lowe on Apr 13, 2010
Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 107.7 points/100 possessions (15th)
Chicago: 103.4 points/100 possessions (27th)
Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 103.4 points allowed/100 possessions (4th)
Chicago: 105.4 points allowed/100 possessions (11th)
Probable Chicago starters:
Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich, Taj Gibson
Thumbnail: A pitiful offensive team that doesn’t really deserve to be in the post-season faces what is essentially a must-win in order to secure the 8th seed and the right to be swept by Cleveland. The Celtics are also playing.
WHAT THE BULLS DO WELL:
• Protect the rim. As you can see from the efficiency numbers, the Bulls are in the hunt for a playoff spot because their decent defense compensates for their god-awful offense.
The main strong point of that D: Nobody holds opponents to a lower shooting percentage on shots near the rim than does Chicago, according to Hoopdata. The Bulls have actually improved in this regard (at least statistically) since dealing Ty Thomas to the Bobcats for Flip Murray, Acie Law and a first-round pick.
And they’ve improved even though Joakim Noah has missed significant time with the dreaded plantar fasciitis. So…maybe Brad Miller is a defensive menace?
• Protect the Defensive Glass. Only seven teams rebound a higher percentage of opponent misses. If you protect the rim and grab most of your opponent’s misses, you’re about 80 percent of the way to having a very good NBA defense. Noah is the team’s best rebounder on both ends, but Gibson and Deng are both solid for their positions.
WHAT THE BULLS DO POORLY:
• Shot selection. You could blame the coach for his basic play-calling, the point guard who’s still learning how to set up teammates for more efficient shots, or the general manager for collecting a group of one-dimensional offensive players. But the fact remains: The Bulls take 27.8 long two-point jumpers per game, by far the highest number in the NBA. The league average is 20.4 per game, and the team that attempts the 5th-most long twos (Portland) jacks 22.7 per game, according to Hoopdata.
In other news, the Bulls are 27th in offensive efficiency.
Convert at the rim. This is astonishing. It’s so astonishing that I feel like there might be a statistical glitch at Hoopdata.com. Chicago’s opponents shoot 15.7-of-27.7 (56.7 percent) on shots at the rim in an average game. As I mentioned above, that’s the best mark in the league for a team defense.
On offense, the Bulls shoot….15.7-of-27.7 (56.7 percent) on shots at the rim.
That is….weird. I mean, come on. How does that happen?
Also: It’s terrible. Only two teams finish a lower percentage of shots at the rim, and those two teams shoot 56.6 percent, so Chicago could easily end up 1st in at-the-rim defense and last in at-the-rim offense. Noah is egregiously bad for a center and takes the most attempts at the rim of all Chicago bigs.
Three-point shooting. Only two teams hit a lower percentage of threes and only the Grizz have taken fewer. The Bulls knew this would happen when they let Ben Gordon walk, and though that may have been the wise choice, it has left their offense incredibly one-dimensional.
PLAYER/S WHO MAKE ME WORRY:
• Noah. There is no worse front-line player in the league to face if your own front line is old and unmotivated in the 81st game of the season. A 20-rebound effort is not out of the queston.
• Deng. Torched the C’s for 25 points on 8-of-13 shooting the last time these two teams played but did nothing in the prior two meetings. Always a beast on defense, but his offense disappears if the mid-range shots aren’t falling.
• Murray. When he’s hot, he’s hot.
PLAYERS WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:
• Hakim Warrick. A disappointing year on both ends. Has the tools to be a menace on D but has never figured things out on that end.
• Jannero Pargo. I don’t think Jannero Pargo realizes he is shooting 34.7 percent from the floor.
WHAT WE WAN TO SEE FROM BOSTON TONIGHT:
No injuries. What else can you ask for? The C’s are almost locked into the 4th seed, and they obviously don’t care about pushing for the 3rd seed. They just signed Tony Gaffney and Oliver Lafayette (the latter from the D-League), presumably to soak up minutes in these last two games.
I think that tells you how much Boston cares about this game.
PREDICTION:
The Bulls want it, the Celtics would like to get it but won’t strain themselves to do so. Pencil in a Bulls win: 100-93, Bulls.
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