Anyone else notice the drop in scoring in the first set of playoff games?
In the first 8 post-season games, the 16 playoff teams scored a combined 1525 points—about 191 points per game.
If you take out the one major outlier—Denver’s 126-113 win over Utah—that number drops to about 184 points per game, or 92 per team.
The average 2010 regular season game featured about 201 total points.
And indeed, those 8 games on average have featured about 90.7 possessions per team, down from 92.7 in the regular season, according to Basketball Reference.
So far, the 2010 playoffs are living up to every bad NBA cliché about defense winning championships and the pace of play slowing down when the games matter.
On the one hand, this is good for the Celtics. This is the kind of Ugly Ball they can win at. On the other hand, I usually root against conventional wisdom, since it so often peddled by those who pay almost no attention to the league until May.
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This 2010 team isn’t built around outscoring opponents because they’re a transition team that explodes on the break and counts on making use of a compounded amount of possessions. On the contrary, we have a half-court set offense that relies on lots of screens and smooth ball movement to look for high percentage shots. When you’re a half-court set offense, you need your defense to be even better because when you’re old and slow and pick/n/roll bound, you can believe the other team is going to turn the game into a track meet and run.
I love that El Heat is playing right into our hands. Why they’re not running more… who knows??
Really no surprise to see Miami/Boston play under 90 possessions. In the post season they’re always at a premium, which is why teams like Phx. always struggle. That was really the only surprise of the weekend unless you consider the number of possessions in the 80′s out west. I would have thought Denver/Utah would have a higher number based on the score.
My final thought on Kevin’s suspension is the rest can only help. It will be a full 6 days before he plays again. That gives the Celtics a potential respite pace with Cleveland. If both teams win game 2, we could see each series extend to only 5 or less.
Celts will never win a lion’s share of games by outscoring their opponent. So as long as they continue rotate well when they overload on Wade’s side I think they win game 2 comfortably. If that happens they will own a 5-0 record over the Heat going into Friday, and we know they’ve played their best ball on the road.
@Loscy
The heat don’t want to run because they have no answer for Rondo in transition.
Transition offense means transition defense (3 v 1 on one end means the opposing team has 4 members down court to your 2, if they inbound quickly, it turns to transition back) and the celtics transition defense is pretty good, when their able to get back.
Getting into a running game against them may seem good on paper, because of the age of the team and the idea that you can tire them out. But in reality, if you don’t have an answer for Rondo, it’s not a good idea.
@Perry
It’s the playoffs now, if KG is still at a point that he needs rest, he’s in trouble for the long haul. I’m not saying the rest hurts per say, but I won’t go so far as to say this is a good thing.
KG not being there in ANY playoff game is bad, period.
@Jay P
True enough. I’m just trying to find a silver lining in this fiasco. Perhaps this is one of those moments in time that was meant Sheed to shine as a Celtic.
Meantime it will be interesting to see if Kevin hyperventilates at the start of game 3 when he returns Friday night. By all accounts he should play like a bat out of hell.
@Jay P
Good point. But in game 1, the Heat slowed down the ball too much. Perhaps a track meet is not the idea situation, but transition buckets weren’t part of their offense. With a big like Beasley and a wing like El D-Wade, why would you not at least PUSH the ball?
I am curious to see when the Celts will double-team Wade with the ball on the wing and shift the defense toward the middle leaving the far weak side nearly empty. I’ll be curious if the Heat will be too tempted to just start launching threes instead of moving the ball around in this defensive scheme…
@Jay P
(it’s “per se”)
@Loscy
I think the Heat are not disciplined enough to move the ball around because Wade dominates the ball on a ton of possessions. If he’s not going off for 30+ a night, the Heat have problems.
Celts got back in the game by overloading on his side. The rotations were crisp. Miami’s shots were contested, and then it became a matter of one and done. Something else happened in that 4th quarter. TA played excellent man defense on Wade forcing him to settle for 20 footers.
I don’t think the Heat are prone to pushing the ball with Arroyo. Case in point. The Celts only shot 44% and the Heat could muster up 6 fast break points.
The Heat have a habit of going small when O’Neal sits. I think it works to the Celtics favor. Doc could opt to play Pierce at the 4, Ray at the 3 leaving TA to harass Wade.
I would actually rather Doc start Perk, Pierce, Ray, TA, Rondo…see where it goes. Then sub Sheed and Baby for Ray and Perk after about 3 mins. That’s just me tho
I always enjoy reading quality articles by an author who is obviously knowledgeable on their chosen subject. I’ll be following this post with much interest. Keep up the good work, till next time