The Basis of a Blueprint

Posted by Zach Lowe on May 11, 2010 80529 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2010%2F05%2F11%2Fthe-basis-of-a-blueprint%2FThe+Basis+of+a+Blueprint+2010-05-11+16%3A36%3A35Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D8052

Before this series started, I thought the C’s absolutely had to do two things to compete on Cleveland’s level:

1) At least play the turnover game to a draw.

The C’s were (as usual) one of the most turnover-prone teams in the league this year, and their post-season turnover rate has matched almost exactly their regular-season turnover rate, according to Basketball-Reference.

If Cleveland has one offensive weakness, it is a tendency to be careless with the ball; they ranked 16th in turnover rate in the regular season. Boston forced turnovers more often than any team but Golden State. Combine those two things, and you had the possibility that Boston could pull off an even turnover margin in this series. And for Boston, an even turnover margin is like a victory.

Through four games, Cleveland has turned the ball over 55 times; Boston has coughed it up 54 times. Check.

But that’s not the most important thing Boston has done to ensure a competitive series.

A more important thing would be this:

2) Minimize second-chance points. Cleveland is a below-average offensive rebounding team, and the one thing Boston absolutely could not do in this series was to allow one of Cleveland’s weaknesses to become a strength.

So far, so good. Through four games, the Cavs have just 31 offensive rebounds—about 8 per game, a number that would have ranked last in the league during the regular season. But raw numbers never tell the whole story, especially in the playoffs, when the pace typically slows down and teams get to the line more often.

Good news: Advanced stats tell an even better story for Boston. The C’s so far in the playoffs have rebounded 78.2 percent of opponent misses, the best defensive rebounding rate among the 8 teams that advanced out of the first round, according to Basketball-Reference. That number has jumped to a shade better than 79 percent against the Cavs.

How good is that 78.2 percent figure? Orlando led the league during the regular season with a 77.4 percent defensive rebounding rate. So Boston is protecting the glass better than we could have expected after a regular season that saw them hang around the league average defensive rebounding mark.

Don’t get too excited—Miami and Cleveland both ranked in the bottom-third in the league in offensive rebounding rate, so it’s not as if the C’s are pulling this off against Memphis and Portland.

But the C’s are doing what they’re supposed to do—what they have to do—against a solid team, and there’s something to be said for that.

The next question I have—one that’s going to help decide this series—is this: Which team gets hot from three-point land first? So far in this series, the C’s are 18-of-66 from deep (27 percent), while Cleveland, the 2nd-best three-point shooting team in the league this season, has hit just 17-of-66 (26 percent).

That’s no accident. Both of these teams stress running opponents off the three-point line even if it means giving up an open 20-footer or a floater. But both shoot the three ball well, and one of them is going to put together a decent shooting night from outside soon. (Or, perhaps, both of them will).

Let’s hope it’s the C’s.