Sunday Notebook: The World Picks the Magic, And The Stat of the Playoffs So Far

Posted by Zach Lowe on May 16, 2010 81509 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2010%2F05%2F16%2Fsunday-notebook-the-world-picks-the-magic-and-the-stat-of-the-playoffs-so-far%2FSunday+Notebook%3A+The+World+Picks+the+Magic%2C+And+The+Stat+of+the+Playoffs+So+Far2010-05-16+14%3A50%3A58Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D8150

Everyone is picking the Magic:

• At Orlando Pinstriped Post, Ben Q. Rock compiles almost every available prediction on this series—34 predictions in all, ranging from the totally unbiased stats-oriented journalist (John Hollinger) to the guys at Red’s Army, who, bless their souls, would probably stick with the C’s against anyone. 

Of those 34 bloggers/writers, just 9 pick the Celtics: John at Chuck at Red’s, Chris Forsberg at ESPNBoston, Marc Spears and Kenny Smith at Yahoo!, the staff at Gino’s Jungle, Sean Deveney at The Sporting News and Tim Legler and Chris Broussard at ESPN. 

The other 25 pick Orlando. This has even the genial Jeff Clark of CelticsBlog annoyed, particularly with John Hollinger’s declaration that there is “no plausible reason” to pick the Celtics. 

I have no problem with Hollinger’s comment.

 All he’s saying is that there is nothing in the data that suggests Boston can beat Orlando; if you are picking Boston, you are doing so not because of some objective piece of information, but because you believe Boston can reach a higher level of play as the stakes become greater. The objective data says Orlando was a better team in the regular season and has been a better team—albeit against lesser competition—so far in the post-season. I mean, they are 27-3 since March 1st with an average victory margin of 14 points per game. 

• You can get a feel for why people like the Magic by reading the ESPN/ABC Sunday Dime, which is devoted to the Boston-Orlando series. Excerpts:

Kevin Arnovitz (of TrueHoop), who picks the Magic in 5, thinks Rashard Lewis could be the difference-maker:

Lewis will have a lot to say about the Magic’s offensive success in this series. Tom Thibodeau’s solid defensive scheme emphasizes walling off the paint and pressuring the ball side. Lewis will have opportunities from his perch beyond the arc on the weak side. Will he capitalize on them?

Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm (Magic in 6) also cites the Lewis factor in a roundtable discussion at Magic Basketball:

Everyone is going to want to say Kevin Garnett will be the difference. Don’t buy it. Garnett can’t defend the range of Lewis and Lewis’ ability to draw him out, then blow by him is well documented.

I would say that Lewis’s ability to do that is documented basically by one play—a drive past KG that led to a game-winning lay-in with 1.3 seconds left in a game earlier this season. That play became the go-to clip in the “KG is washed up” discussion. 

That game happened on January 28th. It is now May 16th. Kevin Garnett is a better player on May 16th than he was on January 28th. This is indisputable. 

John Hollinger (Magic in 5) also mentions Lewis:

A walking matchup problem who can space the floor with his 3-point shooting and post up smaller players in switches, but he’ll have his hands full guarding Garnett.

Believe me, I get how problematic Lewis can be for defenses unaccustomed to power forwards who prefer to shoot three-pointers. But we’re giving a ton of credit to someone who had a below average PER this season and averaged half a rebound more per game than Vince Carter. I understand that Lewis is not on the court to get rebounds, particularly on a team that plays the best rebounder on Earth at center. 

I also understand that KG can’t bring his peak defense in every game; we saw Antawn Jamison dribble past him during the Cleveland series on plays that looked an awful lot like that Lewis lay-up from January 28th. 

But I’m confident that Kevin Garnett will be up to the challenge of defending Rashard Lewis in this series. Rashard Lewis will beat him now and then, and he’ll make KG look old and slow on those plays, but there will be just as many plays when KG is in the right spot at the right time. 

It strikes me as I write this, though, that Rashard Lewis might be the best representative of the NBA’s evolution in 2010. He exists now solely because he can shoot a bundle of three-pointers and make them at a rate that is very rare for his position. It would have been totally unacceptable on any team even 10 years ago to have power forward who took more than half his shots from three-point range, averaged 4.4 rebounds per game and rarely got to the line. 

Now? Lewis is a match-up nightmare in a league that has embraced the three as a primary offensive weapon. He’s skilled enough that he could play a slightly different style if his coach wanted him to; in his prime in Seattle, Lewis took two-thirds of his shots from two-point range, averaged around 7.0 rebounds per game and got to the line twice as often as he does now. 

But the way Lewis plays now is the way Stan Van Gundy wants him to play. 

• You know what would be nice? To get Dwight Howard in foul trouble. According to stats compiled by ESPN Stats and Information Research, the C’s shot just 39.7 percent against Orlando this season when Howard was on the floor and 45.8 percent when he was on the bench. 

• ESPN.com columnist LZ Granderson says this series may be the defining moment of  Vince Carter’s career. And he’s rooting for Carter:

I guess that’s why, if there’s any reason I’m the least bit invested in the Magic’s success this season, it’s the possibility of Carter to win a ring. What can I say? I’m a sucker for nice guys coming in first. And for all of his shortcomings as a franchise player — and the suspect way he’s handled those shortcomings — it’s hard to deny the fact that Carter has not only been one of the league’s most electrifying players but also one of the nicest. 

Toronto and New Jersey fans would disagree—violently. 

• John Schuhmann at NBA.com presents what might be the most encouraging stat of the playoffs so far for Boston fans: The team is actually playing better (by some measures) in the 2nd half than in the 1st. And considering Boston blew double-digit leads in two of its three losses to the Magic, this is a good sign. 

Here’s Schuhmann:

The second half of games, especially the third quarter, was a problem for the Celtics in the regular season. They won the first half by an average of 4.4 points, but lost the second half by 0.8. In the postseason, they have seemed to fix that problem, outscoring their opponents by 1.7 points in the first half and 3.1 in the second half.

• Kevin Garnett reflects on his improved play in the Washington Post today: 

“Over the course of the season, I’ve been fortunate to be healthy and I can honestly say, each month, I’ve gotten stronger,” Garnett said. “The playoffs come around, it’s time to pick it up another notch and that’s all I’ve been trying to do. Nothing more than that, less than that. It’s no secret, I take care of my body. I’m a workaholic when it comes to trying to better myself. Nothing’s changed, just trying to better myself.”

And Paul Pierce adds this:

“The doctor said it would take at least a year for him to heal,” Celtics swingman Paul Pierce said. “I think right now, you are starting to see a healthy Kevin, the way he is elevating, he’s looking like he’s closer to 100 percent. When you have surgery, it takes a lot out of you and it’s good to see him playing so well and consistent because we are going to need him. And there’s no way we can win a championship without him.”

The C’s will need Garnett at close to his best to have a chance against Orlando. 

• Pierce and Doc understand the C’s are facing their biggest challenge of the playoffs so far (via the Globe): 

“You get an opportunity to get a chance to play against an Orlando Magic team at their full strength and at our full strength,’’ Pierce said. “You’ve got the two best teams in the Eastern Conference full strength, going at it to see who’s going to go to the championship.”

And Doc:

“Having said that, Orlando was the team coming into the season where if you wanted to get out of the East, you had to beat Orlando. They’re the team that won the East last year, not Cleveland, and I wanted to make sure our guys had focus on that.’’

But Doc adds this little gem:

“Like we told our guys,’’ Rivers said, “Cleveland wasn’t our goal and neither is Orlando.”

Game 1 starts in five hours.