The Kobe Conundrum

Posted by Zach Lowe on Jun 5, 2010 858310 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2010%2F06%2F05%2Fthe-kobe-conundrum%2FThe+Kobe+Conundrum2010-06-05+20%3A29%3A38Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D8583

There is a growing sentiment already that Boston has to use someone other than Ray Allen to defend Kobe Bryant, at least part of the time. Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus used Synergy Sports to watch every possession on which Kobe took a shot, recorded an assist or turned the ball over. Here’s what he found:

Those are pretty stark numbers, huh? That “other” category, by the way, includes Kobe’s two fast-break dunks and two other baskets off of scramble plays, when no single player was really guarding him. The shooting numbers look bad for Ray, but Pelton rightly points you to the assist numbers, which look even worse. Simply put: Kobe torched Ray Allen in Game 1, and he did so primarily out of the high screen/roll.

Here’s the breakdown of Kobe’s shooting based on the offensive set from which the shot came, also via Pelton/Synergy:

Defending the screen/roll is a team thing, not an individual thing, and it is clear that whatever strategy Boston used in Game 1 failed. In re-watching the game, it’s clear Boston used three strategies against the Kobe high screen/roll:

1) Having Kobe’s man go over the screen while the big guy guarding the screener slides over and sags down, in hopes of cutting off a dribble drive;

2) Having Kobe’s man go over the screen while the big guy guarding the screener jumps out (i.e. “hedges”) over the screen to prevent Kobe from turning the corner quickly. Here’s an example of this strategy working beautifully:

3) Have both primary defenders position themselves on either side of the screener before the screen is even set. The C’s did this primarily when Tony Allen guarded Kobe. When this happens, you’ll see TA get the attention of a C’s big man before the screen is set and point to a spot on the floor where TA wants that big guy to go. The idea is to have a defender on either side of the screen before the pick is in place. 

We saw Boston do this against Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade, and both times we saw how it leaves Boston vulnerable if the ball-handler is skilled enough to split the gap between the two defenders.

Honestly? This is pretty standard stuff. This is what Boston does on screen/rolls involving elite players. I’m not sure if switching Paul Pierce onto Kobe (a move for which there is some support from Boston fans) makes much of a difference in screen/roll situations. Pierce is going to react the same way  to a high screen for Kobe as Ray would. Perhaps Pierce’s length might allow him to find Kobe more quickly on the opposite side of the screen to contest a possible jumper, but I’m not convinced that’s the case. 

On the other hand, Pierce would probably fare much better than Ray in isolation defense. The problem, of course, is that the Lakers aren’t dumb, and they’ll respond to any Boston defensive adjustment by putting Kobe in a position LA believes serves him best against that particular Boston D. Perhaps that means more triangle moving/cutting and fewer isolations in the event Pierce guards Kobe. Is that good for Boston? I don’t think anyone can say for sure.

But perhaps it might also mean more screen/rolls involving Kobe, since Pierce’s size gives Kobe problems in isolation. The conventional wisdom says it’s a good thing to get the Lakers out of the triangle and into a more traditional screen/roll game.

Of course the elephant in the room in the discussion of shifting Pierce onto Kobe more often is:  Where are you putting Ray Allen on defense? Are you comfortable with him guarding Ron Artest? Because if Kobe is at the two and Artest is at the three, that’s the alternative you’re talking about when you’re discussing Pierce on Kobe. 

When the Lakers go small, with Kobe at the three, you’ll obviously see Pierce take Bryant. You might also see Pierce on Kobe if/when the Lakers use Luke Walton at the three.

I don’t think there’s a magical solution to guarding Kobe, at least not for this Boston roster. At least three players will get a shot at it depending on the personnel on the floor, and Boston will mix up all three strategies outlined above. It is the coaching staff’s job to find the one that works best and to organize the C’s back line defense in a way that takes away Kobe’s preferred driving lanes. 

Game 2 begins in about 28 hours.