History Says: Win Tonight

Posted by Zach Lowe on Jun 15, 2010 87914 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2010%2F06%2F15%2Fhistory-says-win-tonight%2FHistory+Says%3A+Win+Tonight2010-06-15+17%3A17%3A06Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D8791

When the Boston Celtics decided to ease up in the regular season and save themselves for the playoffs, they had to know it was possible, even likely, that they would have to clinch the NBA title on the road. Lots of teams have managed it, but it would mark a big change from Boston’s last title clincher, in 2008, when a blood-thirsty Game 6 crowd in Boston helped unnerve the Lakers and propel the Celtics to a 39-point thrashing of their arch rivals.

But Boston enters Tuesday’s Game 6 in Los Angeles in a position of strength, having won Game 5 at home to give themselves a 3-2 edge. They need to win one of two games in Los Angeles, while the Lakers must win both.

There is precious little history to guide us, but what little there is suggests the Celtics might want to treat Game 6 as if it were Game 7.

Since the NBA went to a 2-3-2 format for the Finals in 1985–at the urging of Boston’s legendary head coach and president, Red Auerbach–the series has entered the final two games at 3-2 with the home team trailing just six times, according to Basketball-Reference. The team leading 3-2 (the road team) has wrapped up the series in Game 6 in four of those six series. The 1985 Lakers clinched the Finals by winning Game 6 in Boston, and the Jordan-era Chicago Bulls pulled it off twice, winning Game 6 in Phoenix in 1993 and in Utah in 1998, both on last-second shots. The 2006 Heat needed a monster 36-point, 10-rebound, 5-assist, 4-steal, 3-block performance from Dwyane Wade to clinch the Finals in Dallas.

In the other two series, the home team rallied to win two straight games and take the series in the full seven. The 1988 Lakers overcome Isiah Thomas’ famous 25-point third-quarter explosion to win Game 6 in LA before clinching the series in Game 7, which Thomas played with a badly sprained ankle. And, as Knicks fans surely remember, the 1994 Houston Rockets won Game 6 and Game 7 at home to defeat New York for the title.

Such a small sample size probably means nothing, but it seems notable, at least for trivia purposes, that the four teams who managed to clinch the Finals on the road in the situation in which Boston finds itself now all managed to do it in Game 6, saving themselves the risk of a Game 7 on the road. At the same time, only two teams in the 2-3-2 era have ever done what the Lakers now must do to win: take Game 6 and 7 back-to-back at home.