Saturday Notebook: The Future is Here Already
Posted by Zach Lowe on Jun 19, 2010
• You may have noticed that we haven’t yet addressed the off-season questions surrounding the team. Frankly, I wasn’t ready to go there on Friday. The loss in Game 7 was so monumental that I wanted to give it at least a day before we started having to deal with the draft and Ray Allen and completely unfounded rumors that Danny Ainge might take Steve Kerr’s job in Phoenix because he played there more than 10 years ago and the weather is way too hot nice.
Plus, we all know the questions, right? Will Pierce exercise his early termination option and opt out of the final year of his deal, which would pay him $21 million? If he does, what does that mean? What to do with Ray Allen? Will Rasheed Wallace retire? If he does, what does that do to Boston’s cap situation?
And, of course, what about Doc Rivers?
The broader question is whether the team should try to keep this core intact for one more title run.
• Steve Bulpett of the Herald says he knows what the team is thinking in the big picture:
But before they can even begin to fathom the details, the Celtics had to make one huge decision: Do they keep it together or do they blow it up?
They have decided on the former, according to sources…The Celtics will try to add to their core with a mid-level exception free agent and a draft pick, and trades will be explored, as well.
By the way, a quietly devastating blow to the team’s efforts to poach ring-chasing vets: Using the biannual salary cap exception on Marquis Daniels. As its name (biannual) indicates, you can only use that exception (which is worth about $2 million) every other year, which means the C’s can’t use it this off-season. It’s a great tool to lure veterans who might fancy themselves as being worth more than the veteran’s minimum (teams over the cap can freely sign players to that amount) but aren’t worth the mid-level exception (about $5.5-$6 million) any more.
D’oh!
And here’s Bulpett on Ainge’s thinking:
He is not about to give up on this group for what’s behind Door No. 2.
Reality: If Pierce opts in, it will be very difficult for the team to do anything but keep this core together—unless they are willing to try and trade Pierce (who would be on an expiring deal) or KG (unlikely, given his contract has two more seasons on it). A Pierce opt-in puts the team well over the cap. A Pierce opt-out puts them under the cap, but not quite enough room to pursue any of the marquee free agents.
• Also via Bulpett: The team has mentioned Kevin McHale’s name as a possible replacement for Doc Rivers, though the organization believes Rivers is leaning toward returning:
There is growing confidence that Rivers will stay on and complete his contract.
And
According to sources, Ainge has gauged McHale’s interest in the position – again quite understandable when you consider the two remain close and speak often anyway.
Also for what it’s worth: Bulpett reports that the team was not as likely as you might have thought to promote Tom Thibodeau to the head job, a tidbit that has been reported elsewhere before. So don’t assume the C’s missed a chance to promote their top choice because of the uncertainty surrounding Doc’s future.
I have no insight into what Rivers will do. I will not guess. I do know the players want him back, according to the Herald:
“I think everyone wants him back – that’s not even an issue,” said Garnett. “It’s just a matter of whether Doc wants to come back and whatever decision he sees fit to make for him and his family.”
• Chris Forsberg at ESPNBoston.com ran the opt-out question by Paul Pierce after Game 7:
“Man, stuff’s going so fast, truthfully, I don’t really know what to think right now,” said Pierce. “I’m just reeling from this loss. I’m going to sit down with my family, wind down a little bit, then figure it out.”
I’ve always said I’d be surprised if Pierce opts out and turns down $21 million, but the specter of a new collective bargaining agreement hovers over everything.
• Chris Mannix speculates how much Pierce might fetch on the open market:
Pierce, 32, could leave the $21.5 million on the table with the expectation that he could score a contract worth $50 million to $60 million in the offseason.
That $50-$60 million figure seems high to me. The max salary for a player of Pierce’s tenure was about $19M/season in 2010, so if you’re talking about a $60 million deal, you’re talking about three seasons at the max or four seasons at about $15 million per year. That just seems too high for a player who will be 33 before next season starts and who is clearly in decline.
• Then there is the new question of Rasheed Wallace’s possible retirement and what it means for the team’s cap number. The C’s have about $63 million committed to just six players next season (note: that number assumes Pierce opts in), so they are already well over the projected salary cap (about $56 million) and will almost certainly blow past the luxury tax line.
And if I understand the rules correctly, Sheed’s retirement by itself doesn’t change anything; his salary still counts against the team’s cap number. Here’s Forsberg:
On the surface, it appears that if Wallace does decide to retire, the Celtics could negotiate a buyout of his contract, freeing up money for the team to spend elsewhere.
I’m going to be totally honest: I’m not 100 percent sure if a buyout removes Sheed’s salary from the team’s cap number, even if a buyout means the team will pay Sheed less cash than he is entitled to receive under his contract. I’m pretty sure Sheed’s contractual salary still counts against the team unless Sheed can prove he is medically incapable of playing—at least that’s how I read the indispensable Salary Cap FAQ. I have an email out to Larry Coon (keeper of the FAQ) to double-check.
• One cool tidbit: ShamSports.com, which somehow has access to exact NBA salary figures, lists Rajon Rondo’s 2011 salary at $9,090,090. I love when players do crazy things like incorporate their jersey number into the insane salary they are marking just because it’s fun to do so.
• In that SI story linked above, Mannix also reports the team has talked about Lawrence Frank as a possible replacement for Thibodeau. I’ve lived in New York since 2003 (geez, it could be time to move), so I had an up close view of the Frank era in Jersey. He’s a good coach, and smart NBA guys, including David Thorpe, swear by him. He’s a workaholic and players like him.
I checked with Sebastian Pruiti and Mark Ginocchio, the guys behind the brilliant Nets blog Nets are Scorching, for their impressions of Frank. Ginocchio says Frank is a defense-first guy (good!) but adds this cautionary note:
His teams are never very good at making adjustments in-game, he is totally uncreative on offense and usually relies on iso plays and his rotations make you scratch your head often.
And that, my friends, is why Lawrence Frank is fine as Boston’s top assistant but not someone I want as the team’s head coach. This team—this particular group of players—needs a coach that brings some serious offensive creativity to the half court game.
• The Bulls officially introduced Tom Thibodeau as head coach. And I am officially terrified of the Bulls.
• The other major question for the C’s is what to do with Ray Allen, who is an unrestricted free agent. I’ll have a more extended piece on Ray in the coming days, so I’ll keep it short here. He’s likely priced himself above the mid-level exception salary range—my guess is he could get somewhere around $8M to $10M per season on a short deal.
The key for me is short. Ray Allen will be 35 in a month, and the track record for shooting guards older than 35 is basically non-existent. If another team offers Allen a three-year deal, the Celtics would have to think very hard about letting him walk. Two years? I’m probably in. Ray’s deal would expire with KG’s, meaning the team would be in prime position to wheel and deal in the 2011-12 season and even before then.
You’ve probably seen Ray’s statement about his future already, but in case you haven’t, here it is (via the Globe):
“I’ll deal with that when the time comes,’’ Allen said when asked about his pending free agency. “But it’s obvious I don’t want to be nowhere else.’’
• Also in the Globe: A really bad job by Dane Cook in Game 7 of the Finals at the Staples Center:
Representin’ for Rajon Rondo and the rest of the C’s were Maria Menounos and her nearly constant courtside companion, comedian Dane Cook. Curiously, the pair were not wearing their customary Celts jerseys. What gives?
“Well, I got a call from someone asking me to tone it down, and then I got a follow-up call, so I’m being respectful,’’ Cook told us, sounding just a tiny bit intimidated. “I don’t know who it was, but I also don’t want to go down that rabbit hole too far because I have to work in this town.’’
It’s hard to calculate exactly how much that sucks, but it sucks a lot. You have to work in this town? Please. Put on the damn Celtics jersey.
That’s it for now. I’m off to enjoy the weather here in New York. It’s the off-season, after all.
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