Day 1 End Notes: Pierce, Haywood and Whither The Mid-Level?

Posted by Zach Lowe on Jul 1, 2010 902234 commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F2010%2F07%2F01%2Fday-1-end-notes-pierce-haywood-and-whither-the-mid-level%2FDay+1+End+Notes%3A+Pierce%2C+Haywood+and+Whither+The+Mid-Level%3F+2010-07-02+03%3A39%3A22Zach+Lowehttp%3A%2F%2Fcelticshub.com%2F%3Fp%3D9022

Two interesting bits of news to close the day:

• The Celtics have begun talks with both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, and they are confident in getting a deal done with Pierce by the time players can actually sign contracts on July 8th, ESPN’s Marc Stein reports. No surprises there. 

• The Celtics have inquired about Brendan Haywood, according to A. Sherrod Blakely. (Note: Blakely also reports the C’s have kicked the tires on Antoine Wright and Rasual Butler, two wing guys with very different skill sets who could be had for either the veteran’s minimum or a small chunk of the mid-level exception). 

Your knee-jerk reaction is to say the Celtics have no chance to sign Haywood with the mid-level exception (expected to be around $6 million). And they might not even try to—Blakely suggests the C’s might move to acquire Haywood in a sign-and-trade in which they’d send Rasheed Wallace’s deal to Dallas, who could then waive Wallace and save some luxury tax dollars. This strikes me as unlikely, since Dallas would be left with only Erick Dampier at center—a guy they’re going to waive before his $12 million-plus deal becomes guaranteed. (Also: The Mavs are interested in re-signing Haywood). 

Back to the mid-level, then. It would appear after Day 1 that Haywood—who might have been worth more than mid-level on June 30th—should be able to grab much more than $6 million per season.

Consider:

• Darko Milicic: 4 years, $20 million ($16 million guaranteed)

• Amir Johnson: 5 years, $34 million

• Channing Frye (in a deal struck late Thursday night): 5 years, $30 million

• Drew Gooden: 5 years, $32 million

All of these deals sound at first like they are extravagant, even ridiculous. Darko has averaged 5.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game in just short of 18 minutes of playing time. Amir Johnson has never averaged more than 18 minutes per game in any season. Channing Frye has exactly one proven NBA skill. Drew Gooden doesn’t really understand how to play defense. 

How big of an impact do these contracts have on the general market for front-court players? Does Jermaine O’Neal now have license to demand $10 million per season over two or three seasons? Can Brad Miller demand a full mid-level exception? What about Shaq? 

I have no clue. You can almost understand some of these deals. In three cases, you’re talking about deals for young players at or near the league average salary—contracts you could easily trade in a year or two if the player isn’t working out. You’re betting on potential, and if this is what the market price is for a 6’10” guy with potential, then I guess this is what you pay. (Note: I’m not convinced the market price for Darko Milicic was $5 million per season. Or $2.5 million per season). 

Frye fills a need for Phoenix. All of Amir Johnson’s numbers are trending the right way, and his plus/minus stats over the last two seasons reveal him to be a positive contributor and a defensive monster. The knock on Johnson has always been that his offensive game is so rudimentary—bad hands, no range, no moves—that he’s a Ben Wallace-style offensive liability you can’t keep on the floor for long. This $34 million deal is essentially a bet that Johnson either develops a league-average offensive game or becomes such a good defender and rebounder that he grows into 85 percent of what Ben Wallace was in his prime. 

And if he doesn’t? It’s a mid-level contract, and you can probably trade it without too much of a problem. Gooden is a bit of an outlier here, since he’ll be 29 in September and well into his mid-30s by the time his deal with the Bucks is up. 

The other three deals? Those are bets on young, seven-foot potential. And the Celtics aren’t really interested right now in making bets on young, seven-foot potential. Maybe they should be, but they’re not. They’re interested in experienced, seven-foot reliability in the short term, and perhaps the market for that sort of player has little relation to the market for big man with room to grow. 

Or maybe the C’s are just going to end up with Etan Thomas and Shelden Williams. 

Other notes from around the league:

• The Rockets had dinner Thursday with Brad Miller, a known Celtic target. Remember: Miller played some of the best hoops of his life under Rick Adelman in Sacto. 

• As Brendan told you earlier, the Celtics have reached out to David Lee’s agent. The Celtics would have to work a sign-and-trade (and likely a double sign-and-trade) to acquire Lee.

Good night. The landscape may look very different by the time we wake up tomorrow.