Newest Trade Targets: Barbosa, Rudy
Posted by Zach Lowe on Jul 4, 2010
Via Steve Bulpett:
League sources said yesterday that the Celts have expressed trade interest in guards Leandro Barbosa of Phoenix and Rudy Fernandez of Portland.
Bulpett correctly notes that Rasheed Wallace’s deal could net Barbosa, who will earn $7.1 million next season and $7.6 million in 2012. (He has a player option for 2012, which he’ll almost certainly take).
Fernandez is still on his rookie deal, so he’s ultra-cheap—he’ll earn about $1.25 million this season, and whichever team ends up with him will have a $2.2 million option on Rudy for 2012.
So: Is either guy worth dealing for?
With Barbosa, that question really means: Do you believe last year was an injury-related fluke or an indication of what Barbosa’s future will look like? Because Barbosa slipped badly last season. He shot a career-low 42.5 percent from the floor and 32.4 percent from three—this after emerging as a dependable 48 percent/40 percent sort of shooter. He’s never going to be an outstanding passer or a lock-down defender, so if Barbosa isn’t scoring, he’s not worth the salary he’s being paid. (And if you’re wondering, plus/minus numbers—see here, here and here—generally don’t like him, but spending a decent chunk of time backing up Steve Nash might have something to do with that).
Barbosa had surgery in the middle of the season to remove a cyst from his right (shooting) wrist, and that injury bothered him during the early part of the year. If he’s fully recovered, there would seem to be a decent chance Barbosa could find his shooting form again.
Bulpett adds this:
Barbosa, 27, is a seven-year veteran who would fit well with the uptempo style coach Doc Rivers and general manager Danny Ainge prefer.
I’d quibble slightly with that last part, only because Boston ranks in the bottom-third in the league every season in possessions per game, meaning they don’t play at a fast pace. That said, their offense clearly functions best when they can run on, say, 25 percent of possessions in a game, and Barbosa would bring that capability. He’s worth a look if Boston can get him for nothing, talent-wise.
As for Fernandez, he’s worth a look solely because of his cheap salary. He brings one critical NBA skill: three-point shooting. He shot 40 percent from deep as a rookie and 37 percent last season, and he hit those percentages while taking a ‘Toine-esque 6 or 7 threes per 36 minutes of playing time, according to Basketball-Reference. He doesn’t do much else offensively, but he’s a heady player with a knack for moving without the ball and getting out on the break.
Portland’s defense has actually played better with Rudy on the floor in each of the last two seasons (see here and here), and Basketball Prospectus stats show Rudy’s head-to-head counterparts performed well below their average levels against Fernandez.
He’s 6’6” with a long wing span and he’s quicker than you might think, so he has the tools to be a decent defender if he keeps working at it.
That said, Rudy did a ton of whining last season. He complained that Nate McMillan wasn’t using him enough or using him the “right” way when he did get on the floor. This April story about Fernandez by Kerry Eggers in the Portland Tribune was one of the more revealing pieces of the season, mostly because Eggers got Rudy to open up more than most players ever do. Eggers also highlights an interview Fernandez game to a European news outlet in which he aired most of his grievances:
“Last year, we had a different team, and at least I had Sergio, who understood my game,” Fernandez was quoted as saying. “I have noticed a change this year. I don’t get the ball as much, and the system is different.
“I try to play the way (McMillan) wants, but I don’t feel the trust that he had in me the first year.”
(The Sergio he’s talking about is Sergio Rodriguez, a Spanish point guard the Blazers dealt to the Kings on draft day last year).
More quotes from the Eggers piece:
“I am happy with the fans,” he said. “I am happy with my teammates.”
Asked if he is happy with McMillan as coach, Fernandez paused for several seconds, smiled, and turned toward the weight room at the Blazers’ practice facility.
“I got to go work out now,” he said.
And:
“It’s a tough situation for me,” Fernandez confided Monday after the Blazers’ practice session. “I miss my family and my friends. Yesterday was a hard day. My (25th) birthday, and I was by myself.”
And:
“I have a contract with Portland,” he said. “I have to be with this team. But I tell you, sometimes I miss my family and my friends. And I miss the Euro competition, too.”
The sulking bothers me more than the complaining. Players don’t like when they get less playing time than they feel they deserve, and they complain about it. Some keep the complaints out of the press, but some don’t. But when a player feels wronged, you want that player to allow that anger to fuel him instead of sulking and losing confidence, as Fernandez himself says he did last season.
Still: At less than $2 million per season, Fernandez is obviously worth a look from Boston. But Portland understands how valuable a cheap rookie is, and they won’t give him away without getting an asset in return. The most likely asset they’d be looking for would be a first-round pick and (possibly) some cash. Would you give that up?
Happy 4th of July!
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