Morning Notebook: The Eastern Landscape, J.O. is Close, Forget Redick
Posted by Zach Lowe on Jul 8, 2010
• Question: How would you feel if Boston finished 6th in the Eastern Conference next season? Would you feel confident they could beat the top three seeds three tough Eastern Conference teams AND topple the Lakers in the West?
Because that scenario is TOTALLY in play. We saw how Boston played the the 2010 regular season. Their effort was inconsistent, the coaching staff committed to limiting the minutes for the star veterans and they openly talked about saving their best for the post-season. As a result, they won 50 games and slid all the way to the 4th seed—an unthinkable outcome for a team that won 62 games in 2009 despite missing Kevin Garnett for more than a third of the season.
The plan worked. The C’s rediscovered their hellacious defense, improved their rebounding, forced more turnovers and generally worked fanatically hard to get within a few minutes of the NBA title. (Yeah, still hurts).
It didn’t hurt that they drew an over-matched Miami team in the first round.
That might not happen again next season.
Let’s review:
• The Hawks badly overpaid for Joe Johnson. That’s really going to suck for them in 2015. But in 2011, they’re going to have the same core that finished 3rd in the East last season and has given the Celtics massive problems over the last three years;
• Miami is going to be good. It’s unclear as I write this how they are going to fill out the rest of their roster, and whether they’ll flip Michael Beasley to Toronto in a sign-and-trade for Chris Bosh. But sticking one of the three best guys in the league alongside one of league’s most skilled big men is enough to turn Miami into a dangerous team. John Hollinger has them winning slightly more than 47 games, which would have put them in the 5th spot this season.
Obviously, you can switch that 47 to 60 if LeBron makes a surprise announcement tomorrow.
• The Bulls have signed Carlos Boozer to a 5-year deal worth somewhere between $75 and $80 million, depending on which source you trust. Solid move for Chicago. The team hasn’t had a low-post scorer since the they conned the Knicks into taking Eddy Curry, and they’ve got one now in Boozer. He can hit the mid-range J and run the screen/roll with Derrick Rose.
Combine Boozer with Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and some other nice pieces, and it’s not a stretch to think the Bulls could win between 47 and 50 games next season. Hell, they won 41 in each of the past two seasons despite the lack of a post presence, a horribly uncreative offense and a defense that went from “elite” (No. 1 in the league in ’07) to unreliable.
Add Boozer and hire Tom Thibodeau to install an airtight defensive system? This is going to be a good team, LeBron or no LeBron.
Orlando is Orlando. If Cleveland re-signs LeBron tonight, the Cavs are a 60-win club.
Those are six solid teams. If the Celtics coast through the regular season again, the playoffs could be brutal.
Doc, of course, takes all of this with good humor (via ESPNBoston):
“I was a big fan of the Clippers during free agency, I was hoping they got them all,” Rivers said of the traditional Western Conference doormat. “That would have been terrific. The East is going to be a monster.”
• You can probably forget about Boston nabbing J.J. Redick (a restricted free agent) with the mid-level exception. Here’s what Stan Van Gundy said about Redick (via the Orlando Sentinel):
“I’m not worried about what J.J. might get from somebody. That would simply leave us with a decision, but the ball rests in our court. We’ll just have to make the decision when the time comes. Our intention is — and I know that from talking to [General Manager] Otis [Smith] — our intention is to match.
“Now, if he gets a max offer — $17 million a year — I don’t know,” Van Gundy added, a smile on his face. “If somebody gives him, you know, $1.8 million, he won’t take it. So, somewhere in-between there is the number. But we go in with the intention that we’re going to match.”
• You can, however, begin envisioning what it might be like to have Kendrick Perkins and Jermaine O’Neal platooning at center. Michael Wallace, who covers the Heat for the Miami Herald, says (or, rather, Tweets) O’Neal to Boston is “a done deal.”
As I’ve said before, O’Neal, who will be 32 when the season starts, had a nice bounce-back season last year before flaming out against Boston and Perk in the playoffs. He shot a career-best 53 percent from the floor and put up a PER well above the league average. He hit nearly 45 percent of his shots from between 10 and 23 feet from the rim, according to Hoopdata. That is solid, solid work for a center.
O’Neal’s not an elite rebounder anymore, and he struggles to score against top post defenses. But he plays Dwight Howard very well, and he’s fine at this stage of his career as a 18-minute-per game back-up.
The question, of course, is: Can Boston convince O’Neal to sign for just a piece of the mid-level? Because if the team has to use all $5.765 million of the mid-level on J.O., it’s the veteran’s minimum for the each of the last four required roster spots. And that’s a tall order.
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