Friday Night Notebook: The Market For Shooting, Return of Eddie
Posted by Zach Lowe on Jul 9, 2010
• As you know by now, the Celtics have had preliminary talks with Eddie House’s agent. This is a very smart move. The Celtics have 9 players currently under contract, and only two of them have any capacity to shoot three-pointers. One of those two (Paul Pierce) isn’t a truly threatening three-point shooter in the sense that you can’t build a half court set around his ability to shoot from deep. His release isn’t quick enough, and he isn’t comfortable shooting from that distance on the move or off the dribble. Pierce gets his threes off of drive-and-kicks and in delayed transition.
The Celtics badly need another three-point shooter. Their offense scored just 107.7 points per 100 possessions in 2010 (15th in the league), down from 110.5 points/100 possessions in 2009 (tied-5th), according to Basketball-Reference. Among the most important reasons (if not the most important reason): They shot 39.7 percent from three in ’09 (tops in the league) but just 34.8 percent (17th) last season. Not only that, but as I wrote here, the C’s struggled more than most teams (relative to their overall winning percentage) to win games in which they hit few three-pointers.
Bad news: There aren’t many shooters on the open market.
The C’s have only the veteran’s minimum to offer free agents. That (obviously) isn’t nearly enough to lure guys like Anthony Morrow, J.J. Redick, Luke Ridnour or Al Harrington, meaning Boston would have to use some sign-and-trade gambit to get any of them. Redick and Morrow are restricted free agents anyway, so they’re not going anywhere unless a suitor bowls Golden State or Orlando over with a trade offer.
Kyle Korver is off the market, to the tune of $5 million per season in Chicago. The Spurs just gave Matt Bonner a four-year extension that will pay him somewhere north of $3.2 million per season. Before you laugh, consider that the guys at 48 Minutes of Hell have written several times that advanced plus/minus statistics absolutely love Bonner, which means his ability to space the floor likely helps the Spurs in some way that is hard to quantify.
And please remember neither Allen Iverson nor Tracy McGrady are even average three-point shooters. Steve Novak can shoot better than all of them but lacks a second NBA skill.
Given all this, it makes perfect sense for the C’s to try and leverage whatever good will House might feel toward the organization into a bargain contract. If they can do that, I’d expect them to let Nate Robinson walk if they cannot use him in a sign-and-trade. Robinson will likely command around $4 million per season (perhaps more, perhaps a bit less) on the open market, and bringing back House (or any other minimum-salaried player) to fill Robinson’s role would at least save Boston big luxury tax money.
House just finished his 10th year in the league, so his minimum salary would be about $1.35 million.
• The C’s will really need a three-point shooter if they decide to bring Tony Allen back, as I suspect they will. But they haven’t locked TA up yet, according to the Globe. I’ll be shocked if Boston doesn’t get this done. The C’s have TA’s Bird Rights, and they’ll need all the defensive firepower they can get to slow down the wing combo of Dwyane Wade and the MVP of the 2010 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals without exhausting Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.
• The next likely signing: Luke Harangody, who looks like he could be ready to play 8-10 minutes a game as an energy guy with a semi-reliable jumper. He’s happy with his week in Orlando’s summer league, according to the Globe:
The Celtics’ second-round pick left Orlando with scouts and observers mentioning his name in the same breath as Jrue Holiday, Terrence Williams, Lance Stephenson, James Harden and Damion James as some of the best players in the summer league.
“I thought it was a very positive week for myself,” Harangody said. “I felt like what I needed to do down here, I did.”
(Side note: I enjoy when anyone refers to themselves as “myself” in interviews).
And:
“Everyone I talked to said they were surprised,” Harangody said. “I didn’t surprise myself. But that’s my goal coming down here – to prove the skeptics wrong. I still have a long way to go and there’s a lot of things I need to work on. But so far I think I’m off to a good start.”
He’s given himself a chance to make the team.
• This has nothing to do with the Celtics, but I’m excited: Finally, finally, finally, Tiago Splitter is (reportedly) coming to the NBA.
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