January: The Month Ahead
Posted by Ryan DeGama on Jan 1, 2011
A month ago, we put together a preview of December, forecasting what the Celtics would do in the final month of 2010. We’ll continue that for the first month of 2011.
December In Summary:
The Celtics went 11-3 in the month of December (exactly as we predicted!) to bring their record to 24-7 on the season. They remain first in the Eastern Conference, 1/2 game ahead of the surging Miami Heat and tied with Dallas for the second best record in the league behind San Antonio.
Unfortunately, December also saw the loss of Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett to injuries.
Statistical Review:
The Celtics saw a slight drop in the major offensive categories, attributable in large part to Rondo’s absence. But thanks to relative decline by the rest of the league, they climbed all the way to third in defensive rebounding rate, a welcome figure given the lingering memories of game seven of The Finals. Otherwise, the Celtics continue to ignore the offensive boards, play at a slow pace and track as the top shooting team in the league. And despite the lack of Rondo and Kendrick Perkins and Tom Thibodeau, the Celtics remain the best defensive team in the NBA.
Coming into January, the Celtics are:
11th in offensive efficiency (105.6 points scored/100 possessions). Last month – 9th/106.6.
1st in defensive efficiency (97.0 points allowed/100 possessions). Last month – 1st/98.0.
1st in eFG% at 53.3%. Last month – 1st/53.7%.
1st in TS% at 57.1%. Last month – 1st/57.1%.
1st in the league in assist ratio at 17.4. Last month – 1st/18.4.
3rd in defensive rebound rate at 76.8. Last month – 9th/75.8.
30th in offensive rebound rate at 21.3. Last month – 29th/21.8.
9th (tied) in total rebound rate at 50.8. Last month – 14th/50.1.
24th in pace at 92.8. Last month – 22nd/93.0.
25th (tied) in turnover rate at 25.4. Last month – 23rd/24.6.
After the jump, we’ll examine the below schedule and make some predictions.
January Schedule:
The Celtics have 16 games this month (four back-to-backs) and even though the majority of their games are at home, with their two best players down with injuries, January is going to be about staying afloat and within striking distance of Miami, which is likely to pass Boston in the standings at some point in the next 30 days.
It’s unfortunate the San Antonio game comes so early in the month, as the wounded Celtics must look like easy prey to the powerful Spurs. Instead of a titanic clash between the best teams in either conference, it looks like a potential blowout.
The other key games on the schedule: a rematch with Orlando on the 17th, a visit from old friend Al Jefferson and the Jazz on the 21st and the first of two (regular-season) meetings with the Lakers on the 30th.
As Doc Rivers noted on WEEI on Thursday, what looked two months ago like a stretch where the C’s would enjoy a lot of practice time and fatten up the win column, now projects as a struggle every other night.
***
Now, got your grains of salt?
Good.
Ready to not take things too seriously?
Great.
It’s prediction time.
Safe Prediction: Rondo will return mid-month and perform with limited effectiveness as his minutes and ankle are carefully managed to get him through to the start of the playoffs in full health.
Bold Prediction: The Celtics will trade/release one of Nate Robinson or Von Wafer, so they might add a bigger, more physical wing player to their bench, especially one who might more effectively back up Paul Pierce or Ray Allen in the playoffs (okay, this is really something I think needs to happen, as much as it is a prediction).
This will not happen before Delonte West returns on… let’s say… January 25th.
Ridiculous Prediction: The Celtics will release Old Testament-style vengeance on the Lakers on January 30, with the help of their fully healthy roster. Perkins will start and put up a double-double, Shaquille O’Neal will flagrant foul Kobe Bryant six times and as the clock ticks down on a 120-89 Celtics win, Garnett will pull up lame with a knee injury, crawl to center court and as the whole of Celtics Nation holds its breath, KG will rise up like Lazarus and break into the Gino dance as furious Laker fans rain boos down upon him like the gospel’s rain.
Or something like that.
Predicted January Record: 10-6
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