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6 days ago

Painful Reminders (Part I): The Celtics Drafted JaJuan Johnson Instead of Jimmy Butler

On June 23rd, 2011, Brian Robb and I stood around a high top bar table in Tommy Doyle’s in Kendall Square.  Before us lay one of the biggest mounds of buffalo chicken wings I had ever endeavor to make disappear.  These 25 cent flappers- one of the few indulgences afforded to the participants of our [...]

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7 days ago

Chris Wilcox: 2012-13 Final Grade

There are a number of contextually-appropriate ways to craft this post. One would be to forgo words entirely, and represent Chris Wilcox’s entire season with a series of videos. That would involve one part of this: For every eight parts of this: Note the headline on that second clip. Someone was so amused/enraged by Wilcox’s [...]

12
8 days ago

Rajon Rondo’s 2012-13 Final Grade

Here’s a sweeping general statement involving super specific statistics that may or may not mean anything: In the 1423 minutes Rajon Rondo played this season, the Boston Celtics were outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions. When he sat (including all contests after he tore his ACL), Boston was better than their opponents by 1.8 [...]

93
8 days ago

Avery Bradley Elected to NBA All-Defense Second Team

Avery Bradley has been a standout defender for the past couple seasons…in the regular season anyway. Now he has a trophy to prove it. The NBA announced this afternoon that the third-year guard has been elected by coaches around the league to the second-team all-NBA defensive team for the first time in his career. Bradley [...]

13
12 days ago

Paul Pierce’s Contract: Dispelling The Myths and Stating The Facts

The first domino to fall this offseason is Paul Pierce’s contract. Until Danny Ainge figures out what he’s doing there, little else matters. As we wait for this decision, we also must face the rest of the offseason, which means it is also rumor season. With that time of year, comes plenty of information floating [...]

42
12 days ago

Final Grade: Avery Bradley (C+)

In his third year in the league, in which promising players often make brash leaps from benchwarmer to starter, from starter to star, Avery Bradley took a big step back. But his regression might be deceptive. When he returned to the Celtics’ lineup on January the 2nd after two in-season months recovering from offseason shoulder [...]

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About Those Glen Davis Jumpers…

In the loss to Atlanta on Friday night, the Celtics’ fourth quarter offense generated some egregious shots on its way to 15 points, the most frustrating of those being a trio of Glen Davis mid-range jumpers (from 18, 21 and 21 feet), which always feel like sub-optimal selections, even when they splash down.

I wanted to have a look at the Celtics’ mid-range shooting percentages to verify whether or not we should be cringing when Davis jacks up a shot from this distance. As Henry Abbott alluded to in his internet-overloading post on Kobe Bryant’s clutch performance, our memories often prove unreliable indicators of actual performance.

The league average for mid-range shots (16-23 feet) is 39.4%.

Here are Boston’s mid-range shooters arranged by overall shooting percentage:

Delonte West: 53% (46% in 2009-10) on 1.5 attempts/game

Kevin Garnett: 46% on 5.0 attempts/game

Ray Allen: 45% on 3.4 attempts/game

Nenad Krstic: 44% (OKC) and 41% (BOS) on 3.2 attempts/game (OKC) and 1.6 (BOS)

Jeff Green: 40%(OKC) and 44% (BOS) on 2.2 attempts/game (OKC) and 1.8 (BOS)

Paul Pierce: 40% on 2.7 attempts/game

Rajon Rondo: 38% on 3.3 attempts/game

Glen Davis: 35% on 4.5 attempts/game

It’s damning evidence. Not only does Davis shoot the lowest percentage, he takes the second highest number of shots/game, after KG. In fact, you could reasonably assert that anytime the defense forces a Davis mid-range jumper, it’s a strategic victory for Boston’s opponent. Doc Rivers wants his players to take “their” shots, particularly if they’re open looks. The problem is that somehow the Celtics have determined that a Davis mid-range jumper is one of “their” shots, when almost anyone else on the floor, Rondo included, should be taking it before he does.

So, shouldn’t the Celtics redistribute shots from this range to improve offensive efficiency? The arguments against that are based in part on the idea that within the Boston offense, Davis will get far more open looks than, say, Allen or Pierce, because of the perceived offensive threats those players represent. At the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this year, a presentation on optical tracking data suggested that tight defense (within three feet) drops expected shooting 12 percentage points. My evidence-free conclusion: Davis is much more likely to get shots free of these constraints than anyone else on the team but Rondo.

So, he should take them.

Right?

This is when we find ourselves down the analytical rabbit hole. If Davis is getting more open shots, shouldn’t he be hitting them at a far greater percentage than he does? Because we’ve already established that he’s one of the worst guys on the team from this distance, and below league average overall.

Which again suggests – fewer mid-range jumpers from Davis.

More on this topic tomorrow.

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