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15 hours ago

Rondo Replacing Johnson on All-Star Team

The Herald got it right from Rondo’s agent. According to his agent, Bill Duffy, the Celtics point guard has been named to the Eastern Conference All-star roster, presumably to replace Joe Johnson, the injured Atlanta Hawks guard. This would be Rondo’s third all-star appearance. Nice birthday present for RR, who probably should have been selected [...]

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3 days ago

Comments Deleting?

We apologize if your comments are being deleted (provided that they are not offensive). We are looking into why this is happening. We also want to apologize for the lack of a game thread for last night’s game.  We had a premonition that the Celtics would play that poorly and thought if we pretended the [...]

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7 days ago

5 Questions With Greg Monroe

I talked with Detroit star forward Greg Monroe prior to the Celtics-Pistons game on Wednesday night.  Here is what the 2nd year big man out of Georgetown, who is averaging 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists per game had to say. 1. Just your 2nd year in the league, but playing so well, were you disappointed [...]

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8 days ago

Call for Responses: 5-on-5

Readers! Last week’s responses to the 5-on-5 questions were really, really great. We had way more qualified answers than we were able to use. So we’re going to keep doing it! FOREVER. Here are this week’s questions: 1. Are you concerned about Rondo’s media boycott this week? 2. The trade deadline is less than a [...]

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11 days ago

5 Questions With Ronnie Brewer

I talked with Chicago starting guard Ronnie Brewer prior to the Celtics-Bulls game on Sunday.  Here is what the 6th year man out of Arkansas who is averaging 7.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists had to say. 1. You guys have a lot of the same players back from last year’s team which was [...]

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13 days ago

5 Questions With Josh McRoberts

I talked to Los Angeles back up big man Josh McRoberts prior to the Celtics-Lakers game Thursday night at the Garden.  Here is what the former Duke Blue Devil, who is averaging 2.9 points and 3.8 rebounds in his first year in LA, had to say. 1. How have you guys been able to deal [...]

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About Those Glen Davis Jumpers…

In the loss to Atlanta on Friday night, the Celtics’ fourth quarter offense generated some egregious shots on its way to 15 points, the most frustrating of those being a trio of Glen Davis mid-range jumpers (from 18, 21 and 21 feet), which always feel like sub-optimal selections, even when they splash down.

I wanted to have a look at the Celtics’ mid-range shooting percentages to verify whether or not we should be cringing when Davis jacks up a shot from this distance. As Henry Abbott alluded to in his internet-overloading post on Kobe Bryant’s clutch performance, our memories often prove unreliable indicators of actual performance.

The league average for mid-range shots (16-23 feet) is 39.4%.

Here are Boston’s mid-range shooters arranged by overall shooting percentage:

Delonte West: 53% (46% in 2009-10) on 1.5 attempts/game

Kevin Garnett: 46% on 5.0 attempts/game

Ray Allen: 45% on 3.4 attempts/game

Nenad Krstic: 44% (OKC) and 41% (BOS) on 3.2 attempts/game (OKC) and 1.6 (BOS)

Jeff Green: 40%(OKC) and 44% (BOS) on 2.2 attempts/game (OKC) and 1.8 (BOS)

Paul Pierce: 40% on 2.7 attempts/game

Rajon Rondo: 38% on 3.3 attempts/game

Glen Davis: 35% on 4.5 attempts/game

It’s damning evidence. Not only does Davis shoot the lowest percentage, he takes the second highest number of shots/game, after KG. In fact, you could reasonably assert that anytime the defense forces a Davis mid-range jumper, it’s a strategic victory for Boston’s opponent. Doc Rivers wants his players to take “their” shots, particularly if they’re open looks. The problem is that somehow the Celtics have determined that a Davis mid-range jumper is one of “their” shots, when almost anyone else on the floor, Rondo included, should be taking it before he does.

So, shouldn’t the Celtics redistribute shots from this range to improve offensive efficiency? The arguments against that are based in part on the idea that within the Boston offense, Davis will get far more open looks than, say, Allen or Pierce, because of the perceived offensive threats those players represent. At the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this year, a presentation on optical tracking data suggested that tight defense (within three feet) drops expected shooting 12 percentage points. My evidence-free conclusion: Davis is much more likely to get shots free of these constraints than anyone else on the team but Rondo.

So, he should take them.

Right?

This is when we find ourselves down the analytical rabbit hole. If Davis is getting more open shots, shouldn’t he be hitting them at a far greater percentage than he does? Because we’ve already established that he’s one of the worst guys on the team from this distance, and below league average overall.

Which again suggests – fewer mid-range jumpers from Davis.

More on this topic tomorrow.

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