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6 days ago

Painful Reminders (Part I): The Celtics Drafted JaJuan Johnson Instead of Jimmy Butler

On June 23rd, 2011, Brian Robb and I stood around a high top bar table in Tommy Doyle’s in Kendall Square.  Before us lay one of the biggest mounds of buffalo chicken wings I had ever endeavor to make disappear.  These 25 cent flappers- one of the few indulgences afforded to the participants of our [...]

18
6 days ago

Chris Wilcox: 2012-13 Final Grade

There are a number of contextually-appropriate ways to craft this post. One would be to forgo words entirely, and represent Chris Wilcox’s entire season with a series of videos. That would involve one part of this: For every eight parts of this: Note the headline on that second clip. Someone was so amused/enraged by Wilcox’s [...]

12
7 days ago

Rajon Rondo’s 2012-13 Final Grade

Here’s a sweeping general statement involving super specific statistics that may or may not mean anything: In the 1423 minutes Rajon Rondo played this season, the Boston Celtics were outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions. When he sat (including all contests after he tore his ACL), Boston was better than their opponents by 1.8 [...]

92
8 days ago

Avery Bradley Elected to NBA All-Defense Second Team

Avery Bradley has been a standout defender for the past couple seasons…in the regular season anyway. Now he has a trophy to prove it. The NBA announced this afternoon that the third-year guard has been elected by coaches around the league to the second-team all-NBA defensive team for the first time in his career. Bradley [...]

13
11 days ago

Paul Pierce’s Contract: Dispelling The Myths and Stating The Facts

The first domino to fall this offseason is Paul Pierce’s contract. Until Danny Ainge figures out what he’s doing there, little else matters. As we wait for this decision, we also must face the rest of the offseason, which means it is also rumor season. With that time of year, comes plenty of information floating [...]

42
11 days ago

Final Grade: Avery Bradley (C+)

In his third year in the league, in which promising players often make brash leaps from benchwarmer to starter, from starter to star, Avery Bradley took a big step back. But his regression might be deceptive. When he returned to the Celtics’ lineup on January the 2nd after two in-season months recovering from offseason shoulder [...]

9
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2nd Annual Fun with ESPN’s Playoff Simulations Robot

Not as fun as last year! Mathematically, 1% as fun.

The Playoff Simulations Robot rolled into ESPN.comtown yesterday on his steam-powered wheels and his bright brushed-copper chassis. But while last year I got the Celtics to win the championship on my first three tries, the data stored in the robot’s tabulating machine punchcards was not so favorable this time around. It took me a very long time to get this to happen:

And I cheated. I stacked the East with exclusively non-playoff teams. Notice that Boston edged the Bucks in the Conference Finals. It still took me a minute to pull off, because they were upset by the Wizards in the second round more than once. Like, several times. I sort of think of Celtics and Wizards as having an historic rivalry now.

After the jump, Boston’s probabilitous path to a title if the season ended today, according to this machine.

FIRST ROUND: Miami (19% chance of winning the series)
CONFERENCE SEMIS: Orlando (30%), Atlanta (47%)
CONFERENCE FINALS: Chicago (21%), Philadelphia (22%), Indiana (28%), New York (50%)
FINALS: Spurs (15%), I got bored with this (quickly)

So, if we take the most likely path through the playoffs, that gives the Celtics:
-A 19% chance of making the second round
-A 5.7% chance of making the Conference Finals
-A 1.2% chance of making the Finals
-About a one-in-a-thousand chance of winning the title

The odds change a little if you mix up the seedings, but it’s impossible to get a favored matchup between the Celtics and any of the East playoff teams, no matter how you organize them. Recall that at this time last year, this very robot said the Celtics had about a 10-12% chance of winning the title. So: a hundred times more likely than this year.

A couple interesting things:
-The Celtics have slightly better odds against the Bulls than the Heat.
-The Celtics are only one-percent larger underdogs against the Sixers than they are against the Bulls.
-The machine gives the Thunder a 61% edge over the Heat in the Finals with homecourt, but the Bulls are 63% favorites over the Thunder with homecourt.
-I ran this thing probably 30-40 times using the current standings, and not once did I get a team other than the Bulls, Heat, Thunder, or Spurs to win the Finals.

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